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Updated: 2021 APR 16, 05:52 UT
Event Rank : 81
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 May 08 UT, the 122 km diameter asteroid (3451) Mentor will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Aquila for observers along a fairly broad path across south-eastern Australia, including south-eastern South Australia, north-western Victoria and central to north-eastern New South Wales at low elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.51 mag to 15.84 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 12.3 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 476-096206 by 3451 Mentor on 2021 May 8
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
135 9 29 -38 30 51 13 58 11.5 5 80 -65 ... .. .. .. .. .. 139 51 55 -38 6 4 ... .. .. .. .. .. 143 56 13 -37 45 22 ....
137 32 47 -37 54 45 13 58 14.8 7 78 -67 ... .. .. .. .. .. 141 18 43 -37 35 13 ... .. .. .. .. .. 144 58 51 -37 16 48 -1.01
139 18 59 -37 22 12 13 58 18.1 8 77 -68 134 18 46 -37 48 40 142 33 35 -37 5 36 ... .. .. .. .. .. 145 55 45 -36 48 53 -1.08
140 46 2 -36 51 34 13 58 21.4 9 76 -69 136 51 2 -37 11 58 143 39 50 -36 36 55 ... .. .. .. .. .. 146 47 58 -36 21 32 -1.11
142 0 49 -36 22 12 13 58 24.7 10 76 -70 138 40 6 -36 39 24 144 39 28 -36 8 58 ... .. .. .. .. .. 147 36 16 -35 54 39 -1.13
143 6 51 -35 53 46 13 58 28.0 11 75 -70 140 8 25 -36 8 52 145 33 51 -35 41 38 133 54 46 -36 41 41 148 21 13 -35 28 13 -1.14
144 6 13 -35 26 3 13 58 31.3 12 74 -71 141 23 48 -35 39 39 146 23 54 -35 14 49 136 24 13 -36 5 36 149 3 17 -35 2 9 -1.15
145 0 17 -34 58 57 13 58 34.6 13 74 -72 142 30 5 -35 11 24 147 10 17 -34 48 27 138 10 58 -35 33 34 149 42 47 -34 36 26 -1.16
145 50 0 -34 32 22 13 58 37.9 14 74 -72 143 29 32 -34 43 54 147 53 32 -34 22 28 139 37 20 -35 3 32 150 20 3 -34 11 3 -1.16
146 36 3 -34 6 14 13 58 41.2 15 73 -73 144 23 35 -34 17 0 148 34 3 -33 56 52 140 51 3 -34 34 47 150 55 17 -33 45 56 -1.17
147 18 59 -33 40 29 13 58 44.5 15 73 -73 145 13 12 -33 50 37 149 12 10 -33 31 34 141 55 52 -34 6 58 151 28 42 -33 21 6 -1.17
147 59 11 -33 15 5 13 58 47.8 16 72 -74 145 59 8 -33 24 41 149 48 10 -33 6 35 142 54 1 -33 39 53 152 0 27 -32 56 32 -1.17
148 37 0 -32 50 1 13 58 51.1 17 72 -74 146 41 54 -32 59 8 150 22 14 -32 41 52 143 46 52 -33 13 22 152 30 43 -32 32 11 -1.18
149 12 41 -32 25 14 13 58 54.4 17 72 -75 147 21 56 -32 33 56 150 54 34 -32 17 25 144 35 25 -32 47 22 152 59 35 -32 8 4 -1.18
149 46 28 -32 0 44 13 58 57.7 18 72 -75 147 59 34 -32 9 4 151 25 20 -31 53 12 145 20 21 -32 21 48 153 27 11 -31 44 9 -1.18
150 18 32 -31 36 28 13 59 1.0 19 72 -76 148 35 4 -31 44 28 151 54 40 -31 29 12 146 2 13 -31 56 36 153 53 36 -31 20 26 -1.18
150 49 2 -31 12 27 13 59 4.3 19 71 -76 149 8 40 -31 20 9 152 22 40 -31 5 25 146 41 24 -31 31 45 154 18 56 -30 56 55 -1.18
151 18 6 -30 48 39 13 59 7.6 20 71 -76 149 40 32 -30 56 5 152 49 27 -30 41 50 147 18 15 -31 7 12 154 43 14 -30 33 34 -1.19
151 45 52 -30 25 3 13 59 10.9 20 71 -77 150 10 51 -30 32 14 153 15 6 -30 18 27 147 53 0 -30 42 55 155 6 35 -30 10 24 -1.19
152 12 24 -30 1 39 13 59 14.2 21 71 -77 150 39 44 -30 8 36 153 39 42 -29 55 14 148 25 54 -30 18 54 155 29 2 -29 47 23 -1.19
152 37 50 -29 38 25 13 59 17.5 21 71 -77 151 7 19 -29 45 10 154 3 20 -29 32 11 148 57 7 -29 55 8 155 50 39 -29 24 32 -1.19
153 2 13 -29 15 23 13 59 20.8 22 71 -77 151 33 40 -29 21 56 154 26 2 -29 9 18 149 26 49 -29 31 34 156 11 29 -29 1 50 -1.19
153 25 37 -28 52 30 13 59 24.1 22 71 -78 151 58 55 -28 58 53 154 47 52 -28 46 34 149 55 6 -29 8 13 156 31 34 -28 39 17 -1.19
153 48 7 -28 29 47 13 59 27.4 22 70 -78 152 23 8 -28 36 0 155 8 54 -28 24 0 150 22 7 -28 45 4 156 50 57 -28 16 52 -1.19
154 9 45 -28 7 13 13 59 30.7 23 70 -78 152 46 22 -28 13 17 155 29 11 -28 1 34 150 47 57 -28 22 6 157 9 40 -27 54 35 -1.19
154 30 36 -27 44 48 13 59 34.0 23 70 -78 153 8 42 -27 50 43 155 48 44 -27 39 16 151 12 42 -27 59 18 157 27 44 -27 32 26 -1.19
154 50 41 -27 22 31 13 59 37.3 24 70 -79 153 30 11 -27 28 18 156 7 36 -27 17 7 151 36 25 -27 36 40 157 45 13 -27 10 25 -1.19
155 10 3 -27 0 22 13 59 40.6 24 70 -79 153 50 51 -27 6 1 156 25 49 -26 55 5 151 59 11 -27 14 11 158 2 7 -26 48 30 -1.19
155 28 44 -26 38 21 13 59 43.9 25 70 -79 154 10 47 -26 43 53 156 43 26 -26 33 10 152 21 4 -26 51 52 158 18 29 -26 26 43 -1.19
155 46 47 -26 16 28 13 59 47.2 25 70 -79 154 30 0 -26 21 53 157 0 27 -26 11 22 152 42 7 -26 29 41 158 34 19 -26 5 3 -1.19
156 4 14 -25 54 42 13 59 50.5 25 70 -79 154 48 32 -26 0 0 157 16 56 -25 49 42 153 2 23 -26 7 38 158 49 39 -25 43 29 -1.20
156 21 5 -25 33 2 13 59 53.8 26 70 -79 155 6 27 -25 38 15 157 32 52 -25 28 8 153 21 55 -25 45 43 159 4 30 -25 22 1 -1.20
156 37 24 -25 11 30 13 59 57.1 26 70 -79 155 23 44 -25 16 37 157 48 18 -25 6 41 153 40 44 -25 23 56 159 18 55 -25 0 40 -1.20
156 53 11 -24 50 4 14 0 0.4 26 70 -79 155 40 27 -24 55 5 158 3 14 -24 45 19 153 58 55 -25 2 16 159 32 52 -24 39 24 -1.20
157 8 27 -24 28 44 14 0 3.7 27 70 -80 155 56 38 -24 33 40 158 17 43 -24 24 4 154 16 27 -24 40 43 159 46 25 -24 18 15 -1.20
157 23 15 -24 7 30 14 0 7.0 27 70 -80 156 12 16 -24 12 22 158 31 46 -24 2 55 154 33 24 -24 19 17 159 59 33 -23 57 11 -1.20
157 37 35 -23 46 23 14 0 10.3 27 70 -80 156 27 25 -23 51 9 158 45 22 -23 41 52 154 49 46 -23 57 57 160 12 18 -23 36 12 -1.20
157 51 29 -23 25 21 14 0 13.6 28 70 -80 156 42 5 -23 30 3 158 58 34 -23 20 54 155 5 37 -23 36 44 160 24 41 -23 15 19 -1.20
158 4 57 -23 4 24 14 0 16.9 28 70 -80 156 56 17 -23 9 2 159 11 22 -23 0 1 155 20 56 -23 15 37 160 36 41 -22 54 31 -1.20
158 18 0 -22 43 34 14 0 20.2 28 70 -80 157 10 2 -22 48 7 159 23 47 -22 39 14 155 35 46 -22 54 35 160 48 21 -22 33 49 -1.20
158 30 40 -22 22 48 14 0 23.5 29 70 -80 157 23 23 -22 27 17 159 35 51 -22 18 32 155 50 7 -22 33 40 160 59 41 -22 13 11 -1.20
158 42 57 -22 2 7 14 0 26.8 29 70 -80 157 36 19 -22 6 33 159 47 33 -21 57 55 156 4 1 -22 12 50 161 10 41 -21 52 38 -1.20
158 54 53 -21 41 32 14 0 30.1 29 70 -80 157 48 51 -21 45 54 159 58 55 -21 37 23 156 17 30 -21 52 5 161 21 22 -21 32 9 -1.20
159 6 27 -21 21 1 14 0 33.4 30 71 -80 158 1 1 -21 25 19 160 9 56 -21 16 55 156 30 33 -21 31 25 161 31 45 -21 11 46 -1.20
159 17 41 -21 0 35 14 0 36.7 30 71 -79 158 12 49 -21 4 50 160 20 39 -20 56 32 156 43 12 -21 10 51 161 41 50 -20 51 26 -1.20
159 28 35 -20 40 13 14 0 40.0 30 71 -79 158 24 16 -20 44 25 160 31 3 -20 36 13 156 55 28 -20 50 22 161 51 39 -20 31 11 -1.20
159 39 10 -20 19 56 14 0 43.3 30 71 -79 158 35 22 -20 24 5 160 41 10 -20 15 59 157 7 21 -20 29 57 162 1 10 -20 11 0 -1.20
159 49 26 -19 59 44 14 0 46.6 31 71 -79 158 46 9 -20 3 50 160 50 59 -19 55 49 157 18 53 -20 9 37 162 10 26 -19 50 54 -1.20
159 59 25 -19 39 35 14 0 49.9 31 71 -79 158 56 37 -19 43 38 161 0 31 -19 35 43 157 30 4 -19 49 21 162 19 25 -19 30 51 -1.20
160 9 7 -19 19 31 14 0 53.2 31 71 -79 159 6 47 -19 23 31 161 9 46 -19 15 42 157 40 55 -19 29 10 162 28 10 -19 10 52 -1.20
160 18 31 -18 59 31 14 0 56.5 32 71 -79 159 16 38 -19 3 28 161 18 46 -18 55 44 157 51 27 -19 9 3 162 36 40 -18 50 57 -1.20
160 27 40 -18 39 34 14 0 59.8 32 71 -79 159 26 13 -18 43 30 161 27 31 -18 35 50 158 1 40 -18 49 1 162 44 55 -18 31 6 -1.19
160 36 32 -18 19 42 14 1 3.1 32 71 -79 159 35 30 -18 23 35 161 36 0 -18 15 59 158 11 35 -18 29 2 162 52 56 -18 11 19 -1.19
160 45 10 -17 59 53 14 1 6.4 32 72 -79 159 44 32 -18 3 43 161 44 15 -17 56 13 158 21 12 -18 9 8 163 0 44 -17 51 35 -1.19
160 53 32 -17 40 8 14 1 9.7 33 72 -78 159 53 17 -17 43 56 161 52 16 -17 36 30 158 30 32 -17 49 17 163 8 19 -17 31 54 -1.19
161 1 39 -17 20 26 14 1 13.0 33 72 -78 160 1 48 -17 24 12 162 0 3 -17 16 50 158 39 35 -17 29 30 163 15 40 -17 12 17 -1.19
161 9 33 -17 0 48 14 1 16.3 33 72 -78 160 10 3 -17 4 32 162 7 36 -16 57 14 158 48 22 -17 9 47 163 22 49 -16 52 43 -1.19
161 17 13 -16 41 14 14 1 19.6 33 72 -78 160 18 4 -16 44 55 162 14 56 -16 37 41 158 56 54 -16 50 7 163 29 46 -16 33 13 -1.19
161 24 39 -16 21 42 14 1 22.9 33 72 -78 160 25 50 -16 25 22 162 22 4 -16 18 12 159 5 10 -16 30 31 163 36 30 -16 13 46 -1.19
161 31 52 -16 2 14 14 1 26.2 34 72 -78 160 33 23 -16 5 52 162 28 59 -15 58 46 159 13 11 -16 10 58 163 43 3 -15 54 22 -1.19
161 38 52 -15 42 49 14 1 29.5 34 72 -77 160 40 42 -15 46 25 162 35 42 -15 39 22 159 20 58 -15 51 28 163 49 24 -15 35 0 -1.19
161 45 40 -15 23 27 14 1 32.8 34 73 -77 160 47 48 -15 27 2 162 42 13 -15 20 2 159 28 31 -15 32 2 163 55 34 -15 15 42 -1.19
161 52 16 -15 4 8 14 1 36.1 34 73 -77 160 54 42 -15 7 41 162 48 32 -15 0 45 159 35 50 -15 12 39 164 1 33 -14 56 27 -1.19
161 58 40 -14 44 53 14 1 39.4 35 73 -77 161 1 22 -14 48 23 162 54 40 -14 41 31 159 42 56 -14 53 19 164 7 22 -14 37 15 -1.19
162 4 52 -14 25 40 14 1 42.7 35 73 -77 161 7 51 -14 29 9 163 0 36 -14 22 19 159 49 49 -14 34 2 164 13 0 -14 18 5 -1.19
162 10 52 -14 6 29 14 1 46.0 35 73 -77 161 14 8 -14 9 57 163 6 22 -14 3 10 159 56 29 -14 14 48 164 18 27 -13 58 58 -1.19
162 16 42 -13 47 22 14 1 49.3 35 73 -76 161 20 12 -13 50 48 163 11 57 -13 44 4 160 2 56 -13 55 37 164 23 45 -13 39 54 -1.19
162 22 20 -13 28 17 14 1 52.6 35 74 -76 161 26 6 -13 31 42 163 17 22 -13 25 1 160 9 11 -13 36 28 164 28 52 -13 20 52 -1.19
162 27 48 -13 9 15 14 1 55.9 36 74 -76 161 31 48 -13 12 38 163 22 36 -13 6 0 160 15 14 -13 17 23 164 33 50 -13 1 53 -1.19
162 33 5 -12 50 15 14 1 59.2 36 74 -76 161 37 20 -12 53 37 163 27 40 -12 47 2 160 21 6 -12 58 20 164 38 38 -12 42 56 -1.19
162 38 13 -12 31 18 14 2 2.5 36 74 -76 161 42 40 -12 34 39 163 32 35 -12 28 6 160 26 46 -12 39 19 164 43 17 -12 24 2 -1.19
162 43 9 -12 12 24 14 2 5.8 36 74 -75 161 47 50 -12 15 43 163 37 20 -12 9 13 160 32 15 -12 20 21 164 47 47 -12 5 10 -1.19
162 47 56 -11 53 32 14 2 9.1 36 74 -75 161 52 50 -11 56 50 163 41 55 -11 50 22 160 37 33 -12 1 26 164 52 7 -11 46 20 -1.19
162 52 34 -11 34 42 14 2 12.4 36 75 -75 161 57 39 -11 37 58 163 46 21 -11 31 33 160 42 40 -11 42 33 164 56 19 -11 27 33 -1.19
162 57 1 -11 15 54 14 2 15.7 37 75 -75 162 2 19 -11 19 10 163 50 37 -11 12 46 160 47 37 -11 23 43 165 0 22 -11 8 48 -1.19
163 1 20 -10 57 9 14 2 19.0 37 75 -75 162 6 49 -11 0 23 163 54 45 -10 54 2 160 52 23 -11 4 55 165 4 17 -10 50 5 -1.19
163 5 29 -10 38 26 14 2 22.3 37 75 -74 162 11 9 -10 41 39 163 58 44 -10 35 20 160 56 59 -10 46 9 165 8 3 -10 31 24 -1.19
163 9 29 -10 19 44 14 2 25.6 37 75 -74 162 15 19 -10 22 57 164 2 34 -10 16 40 161 1 26 -10 27 25 165 11 40 -10 12 45 -1.19
163 13 20 -10 1 6 14 2 28.9 37 76 -74 162 19 21 -10 4 17 164 6 15 - 9 58 2 161 5 42 -10 8 44 165 15 10 - 9 54 8 -1.18
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2021 Apr 16.0
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