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Updated: 2021 Mar 17, 03:53 UT
Event Rank : 95
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Apr 24 UT, the 50 km diameter asteroid (686) Gersuind will occult a 8.6 mag star in the constellation Libra for observers along a path across western Tasmania, south-western Victoria, South Australia and northern West Australia, passing over Mount Gambier and Adelaide.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.77 mag to 13.40 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.7 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 6766-01175-1 by 686 Gersuind on 2021 Apr 24
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
147 1 10 -44 50 27 11 7 43.5 36 92 -40 146 30 32 -44 53 58 147 31 27 -44 46 47 146 3 54 -44 56 53 147 57 17 -44 43 30 1.17
146 47 53 -44 33 39 11 7 46.5 36 92 -40 146 17 20 -44 37 7 147 18 7 -44 30 2 145 50 45 -44 39 59 147 43 53 -44 26 49 1.17
146 34 32 -44 16 49 11 7 49.6 36 93 -40 146 4 2 -44 20 13 147 4 42 -44 13 16 145 37 29 -44 23 2 147 30 26 -44 10 6 1.17
146 21 6 -43 59 57 11 7 52.6 36 93 -40 145 50 38 -44 3 18 146 51 13 -43 56 28 145 24 9 -44 6 4 147 16 53 -43 53 20 1.17
146 7 34 -43 43 4 11 7 55.7 36 93 -40 145 37 10 -43 46 21 146 37 38 -43 39 38 145 10 43 -43 49 4 147 3 16 -43 36 33 1.17
145 53 57 -43 26 8 11 7 58.7 35 94 -40 145 23 36 -43 29 22 146 23 59 -43 22 46 144 57 12 -43 32 2 146 49 34 -43 19 45 1.17
145 40 15 -43 9 11 11 8 1.8 35 94 -40 145 9 56 -43 12 21 146 10 14 -43 5 52 144 43 34 -43 14 57 146 35 47 -43 2 54 1.17
145 26 28 -42 52 11 11 8 4.8 35 94 -40 144 56 11 -42 55 17 145 56 24 -42 48 56 144 29 51 -42 57 50 146 21 55 -42 46 1 1.17
145 12 34 -42 35 9 11 8 7.8 35 95 -40 144 42 20 -42 38 11 145 42 29 -42 31 57 144 16 2 -42 40 41 146 7 58 -42 29 6 1.17
144 58 35 -42 18 5 11 8 10.9 35 95 -40 144 28 23 -42 21 3 145 28 28 -42 14 57 144 2 6 -42 23 30 145 53 55 -42 12 8 1.17
144 44 30 -42 0 58 11 8 13.9 35 95 -40 144 14 20 -42 3 53 145 14 21 -41 57 54 143 48 4 -42 6 16 145 39 47 -41 55 8 1.16
144 30 19 -41 43 48 11 8 17.0 34 96 -40 144 0 10 -41 46 39 145 0 8 -41 40 48 143 33 56 -41 48 59 145 25 33 -41 38 6 1.16
144 16 2 -41 26 36 11 8 20.0 34 96 -39 143 45 54 -41 29 23 144 45 49 -41 23 40 143 19 41 -41 31 39 145 11 13 -41 21 2 1.16
144 1 38 -41 9 22 11 8 23.1 34 96 -39 143 31 31 -41 12 4 144 31 25 -41 6 30 143 5 19 -41 14 17 144 56 47 -41 3 54 1.16
143 47 8 -40 52 4 11 8 26.1 34 97 -39 143 17 2 -40 54 43 144 16 53 -40 49 16 142 50 50 -40 56 52 144 42 15 -40 46 44 1.16
143 32 31 -40 34 44 11 8 29.2 34 97 -39 143 2 25 -40 37 18 144 2 16 -40 32 0 142 36 14 -40 39 23 144 27 36 -40 29 31 1.16
143 17 47 -40 17 20 11 8 32.2 33 97 -39 142 47 42 -40 19 50 143 47 31 -40 14 40 142 21 31 -40 21 51 144 12 51 -40 12 16 1.16
143 2 55 -39 59 53 11 8 35.3 33 98 -39 142 32 50 -40 2 19 143 32 40 -39 57 18 142 6 40 -40 4 16 143 58 0 -39 54 57 1.16
142 47 57 -39 42 23 11 8 38.3 33 98 -39 142 17 52 -39 44 44 143 17 41 -39 39 52 141 51 41 -39 46 38 143 43 1 -39 37 35 1.16
142 32 51 -39 24 50 11 8 41.4 33 98 -39 142 2 45 -39 27 6 143 2 35 -39 22 23 141 36 34 -39 28 56 143 27 55 -39 20 9 1.16
142 17 37 -39 7 13 11 8 44.4 32 99 -39 141 47 30 -39 9 25 142 47 22 -39 4 51 141 21 18 -39 11 10 143 12 42 -39 2 41 1.16
142 2 15 -38 49 32 11 8 47.5 32 99 -39 141 32 7 -38 51 39 142 32 1 -38 47 15 141 5 54 -38 53 21 142 57 22 -38 45 9 1.16
141 46 44 -38 31 48 11 8 50.5 32 99 -39 141 16 36 -38 33 50 142 16 31 -38 29 35 140 50 21 -38 35 27 142 41 53 -38 27 33 1.16
141 31 6 -38 13 59 11 8 53.6 32 100 -39 141 0 56 -38 15 57 142 0 54 -38 11 51 140 34 40 -38 17 29 142 26 17 -38 9 53 1.16
141 15 18 -37 56 7 11 8 56.6 31 100 -38 140 45 6 -37 57 59 141 45 8 -37 54 4 140 18 49 -37 59 27 142 10 32 -37 52 10 1.16
140 59 21 -37 38 10 11 8 59.7 31 100 -38 140 29 7 -37 39 57 141 29 13 -37 36 12 140 2 48 -37 41 21 141 54 39 -37 34 23 1.16
140 43 15 -37 20 9 11 9 2.7 31 101 -38 140 12 59 -37 21 51 141 13 10 -37 18 16 139 46 37 -37 23 10 141 38 37 -37 16 31 1.16
140 27 0 -37 2 3 11 9 5.8 31 101 -38 139 56 41 -37 3 39 140 56 57 -37 0 16 139 30 16 -37 4 53 141 22 26 -36 58 35 1.16
140 10 34 -36 43 52 11 9 8.8 30 101 -38 139 40 12 -36 45 23 140 40 34 -36 42 10 139 13 44 -36 46 32 141 6 6 -36 40 34 1.16
139 53 58 -36 25 37 11 9 11.9 30 102 -38 139 23 32 -36 27 2 140 24 1 -36 24 0 138 57 1 -36 28 6 140 49 36 -36 22 29 1.16
139 37 11 -36 7 16 11 9 14.9 30 102 -38 139 6 42 -36 8 35 140 7 18 -36 5 46 138 40 7 -36 9 34 140 32 56 -36 4 19 1.16
139 20 14 -35 48 50 11 9 18.0 30 102 -37 138 49 40 -35 50 3 139 50 24 -35 47 25 138 23 1 -35 50 57 140 16 5 -35 46 3 1.16
139 3 5 -35 30 19 11 9 21.0 29 102 -37 138 32 26 -35 31 25 139 33 20 -35 29 0 138 5 43 -35 32 13 139 59 4 -35 27 43 1.16
138 45 44 -35 11 41 11 9 24.1 29 103 -37 138 15 0 -35 12 42 139 16 3 -35 10 29 137 48 12 -35 13 24 139 41 52 -35 9 17 1.16
138 28 10 -34 52 58 11 9 27.1 29 103 -37 137 57 21 -34 53 52 138 58 35 -34 51 52 137 30 28 -34 54 28 139 24 28 -34 50 45 1.16
138 10 24 -34 34 8 11 9 30.2 28 103 -37 137 39 29 -34 34 55 138 40 55 -34 33 8 137 12 30 -34 35 25 139 6 52 -34 32 8 1.16
137 52 25 -34 15 12 11 9 33.2 28 104 -37 137 21 23 -34 15 52 138 23 2 -34 14 19 136 54 18 -34 16 15 138 49 4 -34 13 24 1.16
137 34 12 -33 56 9 11 9 36.3 28 104 -36 137 3 2 -33 56 41 138 4 55 -33 55 23 136 35 51 -33 56 59 138 31 3 -33 54 33 1.16
137 15 44 -33 36 58 11 9 39.3 28 104 -36 136 44 27 -33 37 23 137 46 35 -33 36 20 136 17 9 -33 37 34 138 12 48 -33 35 36 1.16
136 57 2 -33 17 41 11 9 42.4 27 105 -36 136 25 36 -33 17 58 137 28 0 -33 17 10 135 58 11 -33 18 1 137 54 20 -33 16 33 1.16
136 38 4 -32 58 15 11 9 45.4 27 105 -36 136 6 30 -32 58 24 137 9 11 -32 57 52 135 38 55 -32 58 20 137 35 37 -32 57 21 1.16
136 18 50 -32 38 41 11 9 48.5 27 105 -36 135 47 6 -32 38 42 136 50 5 -32 38 26 135 19 23 -32 38 31 137 16 39 -32 38 2 1.16
135 59 18 -32 18 59 11 9 51.5 26 105 -35 135 27 24 -32 18 51 136 30 44 -32 18 52 134 59 31 -32 18 32 136 57 25 -32 18 36 1.16
135 39 29 -31 59 8 11 9 54.5 26 106 -35 135 7 24 -31 58 51 136 11 5 -31 59 10 134 39 21 -31 58 23 136 37 55 -31 59 0 1.16
135 19 21 -31 39 7 11 9 57.6 26 106 -35 134 47 4 -31 38 41 135 51 9 -31 39 19 134 18 50 -31 38 5 136 18 7 -31 39 16 1.16
134 58 54 -31 18 57 11 10 0.6 25 106 -35 134 26 24 -31 18 20 135 30 53 -31 19 18 133 57 58 -31 17 35 135 58 2 -31 19 23 1.16
134 38 6 -30 58 36 11 10 3.7 25 107 -34 134 5 22 -30 57 49 135 10 18 -30 59 7 133 36 44 -30 56 55 135 37 37 -30 59 21 1.16
134 16 57 -30 38 4 11 10 6.7 24 107 -34 133 43 58 -30 37 6 134 49 23 -30 38 46 133 15 6 -30 36 2 135 16 53 -30 39 8 1.16
133 55 25 -30 17 21 11 10 9.8 24 107 -34 133 22 10 -30 16 12 134 28 6 -30 18 13 132 53 3 -30 14 57 134 55 48 -30 18 44 1.16
133 33 29 -29 56 26 11 10 12.8 24 107 -34 132 59 57 -29 55 4 134 6 26 -29 57 29 132 30 34 -29 53 38 134 34 21 -29 58 10 1.16
133 11 8 -29 35 18 11 10 15.9 23 108 -33 132 37 17 -29 33 43 133 44 22 -29 36 33 132 7 37 -29 32 6 134 12 30 -29 37 23 1.16
132 48 19 -29 13 56 11 10 18.9 23 108 -33 132 14 8 -29 12 8 133 21 52 -29 15 24 131 44 10 -29 10 18 133 50 16 -29 16 25 1.16
132 25 3 -28 52 19 11 10 22.0 22 108 -33 131 50 30 -28 50 17 132 58 55 -28 54 1 131 20 11 -28 48 14 133 27 35 -28 55 13 1.16
132 1 16 -28 30 27 11 10 25.0 22 109 -32 131 26 20 -28 28 10 132 35 30 -28 32 23 130 55 39 -28 25 54 133 4 27 -28 33 46 1.16
131 36 57 -28 8 19 11 10 28.1 21 109 -32 131 1 35 -28 5 46 132 11 34 -28 10 30 130 30 31 -28 3 14 132 40 50 -28 12 6 1.16
131 12 3 -27 45 53 11 10 31.1 21 109 -32 130 36 13 -27 43 3 131 47 6 -27 48 20 130 4 43 -27 40 15 132 16 42 -27 50 9 1.16
130 46 32 -27 23 9 11 10 34.2 21 109 -31 130 10 12 -27 19 59 131 22 3 -27 25 53 129 38 14 -27 16 55 131 52 1 -27 27 55 1.16
130 20 21 -27 0 4 11 10 37.2 20 110 -31 129 43 29 -26 56 35 130 56 23 -27 3 6 129 10 59 -26 53 12 131 26 45 -27 5 23 1.16
129 53 28 -26 36 37 11 10 40.3 20 110 -31 129 15 59 -26 32 46 130 30 2 -26 39 59 128 42 55 -26 29 3 131 0 51 -26 42 32 1.17
129 25 48 -26 12 46 11 10 43.3 19 110 -30 128 47 39 -26 8 32 130 2 58 -26 16 30 128 13 57 -26 4 28 130 34 15 -26 19 20 1.17
128 57 17 -25 48 30 11 10 46.4 19 110 -30 128 18 24 -25 43 50 129 35 7 -25 52 37 127 44 0 -25 39 22 130 6 56 -25 55 46 1.17
128 27 51 -25 23 45 11 10 49.4 18 111 -29 127 48 8 -25 18 38 129 6 25 -25 28 17 127 12 58 -25 13 43 129 38 49 -25 31 46 1.17
127 57 23 -24 58 30 11 10 52.5 17 111 -29 127 16 46 -24 52 52 128 36 47 -25 3 30 126 40 44 -24 47 28 129 9 49 -25 7 21 1.17
127 25 49 -24 32 40 11 10 55.5 17 111 -28 126 44 10 -24 26 28 128 6 7 -24 38 11 126 7 8 -24 20 31 128 39 52 -24 42 26 1.17
126 52 59 -24 6 12 11 10 58.6 16 112 -28 126 10 11 -23 59 22 127 34 20 -24 12 17 125 32 0 -23 52 48 128 8 52 -24 16 59 1.17
126 18 45 -23 39 1 11 11 1.6 16 112 -27 125 34 37 -23 31 28 127 1 16 -23 45 45 124 55 8 -23 24 12 127 36 42 -23 50 56 1.18
125 42 56 -23 11 3 11 11 4.7 15 112 -27 124 57 15 -23 2 40 126 26 46 -23 18 29 124 16 14 -22 54 35 127 3 13 -23 24 14 1.18
125 5 16 -22 42 8 11 11 7.7 14 113 -26 124 17 47 -22 32 48 125 50 40 -22 50 24 123 34 58 -22 23 46 126 28 17 -22 56 47 1.18
124 25 30 -22 12 10 11 11 10.8 13 113 -26 123 35 52 -22 1 42 125 12 42 -22 21 24 122 50 51 -21 51 32 125 51 41 -22 28 29 1.19
123 43 13 -21 40 55 11 11 13.8 13 113 -25 122 50 59 -21 29 6 124 32 35 -21 51 17 122 3 14 -21 17 32 125 13 9 -21 59 13 1.19
122 57 55 -21 8 10 11 11 16.9 12 113 -24 122 2 26 -20 54 41 123 49 55 -21 19 54 121 11 12 -20 41 18 124 32 22 -21 28 49 1.20
122 8 52 -20 33 32 11 11 19.9 11 114 -23 121 9 13 -20 17 54 123 4 9 -20 46 57 120 13 17 -20 2 9 123 48 56 -20 57 5 1.21
121 15 2 -19 56 30 11 11 23.0 10 114 -23 120 9 43 -19 37 59 122 14 33 -20 12 5 119 7 3 -19 18 50 123 2 15 -20 23 43 1.22
120 14 44 -19 16 14 11 11 26.0 9 114 -22 119 1 9 -18 53 34 121 20 2 -19 34 45 117 47 38 -18 28 59 122 11 31 -19 48 19 1.24
119 5 1 -18 31 17 11 11 29.1 7 115 -20 117 37 48 -18 1 48 120 18 49 -18 54 4 116 2 9 -17 26 11 121 15 30 -19 10 16 1.27
117 39 44 -17 38 35 11 11 32.1 6 115 -19 115 42 46 -16 54 19 119 7 46 -18 8 30 ... .. .. .. .. .. 120 12 14 -18 28 36 1.33
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