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Updated: 2021 Mar 17, 03:36 UT
Event Rank : 34
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Apr 06 UT, the 44 km diameter asteroid (4828) Misenus will occult a 10.9 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a significantly uncertain path across Queensland, central New South Wales, eastern Victoria and Tasmania, passing near Cooktown, Benalla, Traralgon and Hobart.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.26 mag to 18.19 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.7 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 7888-00893-1 by 4828 Misenus on 2021 Apr 6
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
143 39 58 -10 0 0 18 10 33.7 58 161 -35 143 27 36 143 52 20 142 38 50 144 40 58 0.14
143 46 8 -11 0 0 18 10 46.0 59 160 -35 143 33 44 143 58 32 142 44 49 144 47 18 0.14
143 52 12 -12 0 0 18 10 58.5 60 160 -35 143 39 46 144 4 38 142 50 42 144 53 34 0.14
143 58 11 -13 0 0 18 11 11.0 61 160 -34 143 45 42 144 10 40 142 56 28 144 59 47 0.14
144 4 6 -14 0 0 18 11 23.7 62 159 -34 143 51 34 144 16 37 143 2 8 145 5 56 0.14
144 9 56 -15 0 0 18 11 36.6 63 159 -34 143 57 21 144 22 31 143 7 43 145 12 1 0.14
144 15 42 -16 0 0 18 11 49.5 64 158 -34 144 3 3 144 28 20 143 13 12 145 18 4 0.14
144 21 24 -17 0 0 18 12 2.5 65 158 -34 144 8 42 144 34 6 143 18 36 145 24 5 0.14
144 27 3 -18 0 0 18 12 15.6 66 157 -33 144 14 17 144 39 49 143 23 56 145 30 4 0.13
144 32 39 -19 0 0 18 12 28.9 67 157 -33 144 19 49 144 45 30 143 29 11 145 36 1 0.13
144 38 13 -20 0 0 18 12 42.2 68 156 -33 144 25 18 144 51 8 143 34 22 145 41 57 0.13
144 43 44 -21 0 0 18 12 55.6 69 155 -33 144 30 44 144 56 44 143 39 29 145 47 53 0.13
144 49 14 -22 0 0 18 13 9.1 70 154 -33 144 36 9 145 2 19 143 44 33 145 53 48 0.13
144 54 42 -23 0 0 18 13 22.7 71 153 -32 144 41 31 145 7 52 143 49 34 145 59 43 0.13
145 0 9 -24 0 0 18 13 36.3 72 152 -32 144 46 52 145 13 25 143 54 32 146 5 39 0.13
145 5 35 -25 0 0 18 13 50.1 73 151 -32 144 52 12 145 18 58 143 59 28 146 11 36 0.13
145 11 1 -26 0 0 18 14 3.9 74 150 -32 144 57 32 145 24 30 144 4 22 146 17 34 0.13
145 16 28 -27 0 0 18 14 17.8 75 148 -31 145 2 51 145 30 3 144 9 14 146 23 35 0.13
145 21 54 -28 0 0 18 14 31.7 75 147 -31 145 8 11 145 35 37 144 14 5 146 29 37 0.13
145 27 22 -29 0 0 18 14 45.7 76 145 -31 145 13 31 145 41 13 144 18 55 146 35 43 0.12
145 32 52 -30 0 0 18 14 59.7 77 142 -30 145 18 52 145 46 50 144 23 45 146 41 53 0.12
145 38 23 -31 0 0 18 15 13.8 78 140 -30 145 24 15 145 52 30 144 28 34 146 48 6 0.12
145 43 57 -32 0 0 18 15 27.9 79 137 -30 145 29 40 145 58 13 144 33 24 146 54 24 0.12
145 49 33 -33 0 0 18 15 42.1 80 134 -29 145 35 7 146 3 59 144 38 14 147 0 47 0.12
145 55 13 -34 0 0 18 15 56.3 80 130 -29 145 40 38 146 9 49 144 43 5 147 7 17 0.12
146 0 58 -35 0 0 18 16 10.5 81 125 -29 145 46 11 146 15 44 144 47 58 147 13 52 0.12
146 6 46 -36 0 0 18 16 24.8 82 120 -28 145 51 49 146 21 44 144 52 53 147 20 35 0.12
146 12 40 -37 0 0 18 16 39.1 82 114 -28 145 57 32 146 27 49 144 57 50 147 27 27 0.12
146 18 40 -38 0 0 18 16 53.4 82 106 -28 146 3 19 146 34 1 145 2 50 147 34 26 0.12
146 24 47 -39 0 0 18 17 7.7 83 98 -27 146 9 13 146 40 20 145 7 53 147 41 36 0.12
146 31 0 -40 0 0 18 17 22.0 83 90 -27 146 15 13 146 46 47 145 13 1 147 48 56 0.12
146 37 22 -41 0 0 18 17 36.3 83 81 -27 146 21 21 146 53 23 145 18 13 147 56 28 0.12
146 43 52 -42 0 0 18 17 50.7 83 72 -26 146 27 36 147 0 8 145 23 30 148 4 12 0.12
146 50 33 -43 0 0 18 18 5.0 83 63 -26 146 34 1 147 7 4 145 28 53 148 12 9 0.12
146 57 23 -44 0 0 18 18 19.3 82 56 -25 146 40 35 147 14 12 145 34 22 148 20 22 0.12
147 4 26 -45 0 0 18 18 33.6 82 49 -25 146 47 20 147 21 31 145 39 59 148 28 50 0.12
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