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Updated: 2021 Mar 17, 03:34 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Apr 04 UT, the 100 km diameter asteroid (63) Ausonia will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across Northern Territory, south-western Queensland, South Australia, New South Wales and eastern Victoria, passing over Wagga Wagga and Cann River.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.30 mag to 11.13 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 13.5 seconds. This event may not be observable visually.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 297-107161 by 63 Ausonia on 2021 Apr 4
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
130 7 50 -18 24 57 13 4 1.6 4 121 -54 133 17 35 -19 51 14 ... .. .. .. .. .. 133 58 39 -20 7 54 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
131 51 24 -19 40 2 13 4 6.0 6 121 -55 134 23 9 -20 42 53 126 42 44 -17 0 56 134 59 17 -20 56 29 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.06
133 7 23 -20 38 13 13 4 10.4 8 120 -56 135 19 25 -21 28 50 130 5 17 -19 16 39 135 52 17 -21 40 22 128 47 6 -18 37 10 1.14
134 9 57 -21 28 9 13 4 14.9 9 120 -57 136 9 21 -22 10 51 131 40 35 -20 26 49 136 39 50 -22 20 53 130 47 46 -20 2 56 1.17
135 4 8 -22 12 56 13 4 19.3 10 119 -57 136 54 35 -22 49 58 132 52 50 -21 22 51 137 23 15 -22 58 51 132 9 31 -21 4 50 1.18
135 52 29 -22 54 6 13 4 23.7 11 119 -58 137 36 9 -23 26 49 133 53 4 -22 11 29 138 3 24 -23 34 46 133 15 4 -21 56 48 1.19
136 36 27 -23 32 34 13 4 28.2 12 119 -58 138 14 47 -24 1 50 134 45 35 -22 55 23 138 40 52 -24 9 2 134 11 7 -22 42 53 1.20
137 16 58 -24 8 53 13 4 32.6 13 118 -58 138 50 59 -24 35 20 135 32 39 -23 35 53 139 16 5 -24 41 54 135 0 41 -23 24 59 1.21
137 54 42 -24 43 28 13 4 37.0 14 118 -58 139 25 7 -25 7 33 136 15 33 -24 13 49 139 49 23 -25 13 34 135 45 31 -24 4 9 1.21
138 30 6 -25 16 36 13 4 41.5 14 118 -58 139 57 28 -25 38 40 136 55 11 -24 49 43 140 21 2 -25 44 11 136 26 40 -24 41 2 1.21
139 3 31 -25 48 30 13 4 45.9 15 117 -59 140 28 17 -26 8 49 137 32 7 -25 23 56 140 51 13 -26 13 54 137 4 51 -25 16 4 1.21
139 35 14 -26 19 20 13 4 50.3 16 117 -59 140 57 44 -26 38 6 138 6 49 -25 56 46 141 20 8 -26 42 49 137 40 34 -25 49 35 1.22
140 5 27 -26 49 14 13 4 54.8 16 117 -59 141 25 58 -27 6 38 138 39 36 -26 28 25 141 47 54 -27 11 1 138 14 14 -26 21 48 1.22
140 34 21 -27 18 18 13 4 59.2 17 116 -59 141 53 8 -27 34 28 139 10 44 -26 59 1 142 14 37 -27 38 33 138 46 7 -26 52 55 1.22
141 2 4 -27 46 38 13 5 3.7 18 116 -59 142 19 18 -28 1 42 139 40 25 -27 28 43 142 40 24 -28 5 30 139 16 27 -27 23 3 1.22
141 28 44 -28 14 18 13 5 8.1 18 116 -59 142 44 35 -28 28 22 140 8 49 -27 57 37 143 5 20 -28 31 55 139 45 25 -27 52 21 1.22
141 54 27 -28 41 23 13 5 12.5 19 116 -59 143 9 2 -28 54 31 140 36 4 -28 25 47 143 29 29 -28 57 50 140 13 10 -28 20 53 1.22
142 19 17 -29 7 54 13 5 17.0 19 115 -59 143 32 45 -29 20 11 141 2 18 -28 53 19 143 52 55 -29 23 17 140 39 50 -28 48 44 1.22
142 43 19 -29 33 55 13 5 21.4 20 115 -59 143 55 46 -29 45 26 141 27 35 -29 20 16 144 15 41 -29 48 20 141 5 31 -29 15 58 1.22
143 6 38 -29 59 29 13 5 25.8 20 115 -59 144 18 9 -30 10 16 141 52 0 -29 46 40 144 37 50 -30 12 59 141 30 18 -29 42 38 1.22
143 29 16 -30 24 37 13 5 30.3 21 114 -59 144 39 56 -30 34 44 142 15 39 -30 12 35 144 59 24 -30 37 16 141 54 16 -30 8 48 1.22
143 51 16 -30 49 21 13 5 34.7 21 114 -59 145 1 9 -30 58 50 142 38 35 -30 38 3 145 20 26 -31 1 13 142 17 30 -30 34 30 1.22
144 12 41 -31 13 44 13 5 39.1 22 114 -58 145 21 52 -31 22 37 143 0 50 -31 3 6 145 40 58 -31 24 50 142 40 1 -30 59 45 1.22
144 33 33 -31 37 45 13 5 43.6 22 113 -58 145 42 5 -31 46 5 143 22 29 -31 27 45 146 1 1 -31 48 10 143 1 54 -31 24 36 1.22
144 53 55 -32 1 28 13 5 48.0 23 113 -58 146 1 51 -32 9 16 143 43 32 -31 52 3 146 20 38 -32 11 13 143 23 11 -31 49 5 1.22
145 13 48 -32 24 52 13 5 52.4 23 113 -58 146 21 11 -32 32 11 144 4 4 -32 16 1 146 39 49 -32 34 0 143 43 55 -32 13 13 1.22
145 33 13 -32 47 59 13 5 56.9 23 113 -58 146 40 7 -32 54 50 144 24 5 -32 39 40 146 58 37 -32 56 32 144 4 8 -32 37 1 1.22
145 52 14 -33 10 50 13 6 1.3 24 112 -58 146 58 39 -33 17 15 144 43 38 -33 3 1 147 17 3 -33 18 49 144 23 51 -33 0 31 1.22
146 10 50 -33 33 27 13 6 5.7 24 112 -58 147 16 50 -33 39 26 145 2 44 -33 26 5 147 35 7 -33 40 54 144 43 6 -33 23 44 1.22
146 29 3 -33 55 48 13 6 10.2 25 112 -58 147 34 40 -34 1 24 145 21 25 -33 48 54 147 52 51 -34 2 45 145 1 56 -33 46 41 1.22
146 46 55 -34 17 57 13 6 14.6 25 111 -57 147 52 10 -34 23 9 145 39 42 -34 11 27 148 10 15 -34 24 24 145 20 21 -34 9 22 1.22
147 4 26 -34 39 52 13 6 19.0 25 111 -57 148 9 21 -34 44 43 145 57 37 -34 33 47 148 27 21 -34 45 52 145 38 23 -34 31 49 1.22
147 21 38 -35 1 35 13 6 23.5 26 111 -57 148 26 14 -35 6 5 146 15 10 -34 55 53 148 44 10 -35 7 9 145 56 2 -34 54 2 1.22
147 38 30 -35 23 7 13 6 27.9 26 111 -57 148 42 50 -35 27 16 146 32 22 -35 17 47 149 0 42 -35 28 15 146 13 21 -35 16 3 1.22
147 55 6 -35 44 28 13 6 32.3 26 110 -57 148 59 10 -35 48 18 146 49 15 -35 39 28 149 16 57 -35 49 11 146 30 19 -35 37 51 1.22
148 11 24 -36 5 37 13 6 36.8 27 110 -57 149 15 14 -36 9 9 147 5 50 -36 0 59 149 32 58 -36 9 57 146 46 59 -35 59 27 1.22
148 27 25 -36 26 37 13 6 41.2 27 110 -56 149 31 3 -36 29 51 147 22 6 -36 22 18 149 48 44 -36 30 35 147 3 20 -36 20 52 1.22
148 43 11 -36 47 28 13 6 45.6 27 109 -56 149 46 38 -36 50 24 147 38 6 -36 43 27 150 4 15 -36 51 3 147 19 24 -36 42 6 1.22
148 58 43 -37 8 9 13 6 50.1 28 109 -56 150 1 59 -37 10 49 147 53 50 -37 4 26 150 19 34 -37 11 23 147 35 12 -37 3 11 1.22
149 13 59 -37 28 41 13 6 54.5 28 109 -56 150 17 6 -37 31 5 148 9 18 -37 25 15 150 34 39 -37 31 35 147 50 43 -37 24 5 1.22
149 29 2 -37 49 5 13 6 58.9 28 109 -56 150 32 1 -37 51 13 148 24 31 -37 45 56 150 49 31 -37 51 39 148 6 0 -37 44 51 1.22
149 43 52 -38 9 20 13 7 3.4 29 108 -55 150 46 43 -38 11 14 148 39 29 -38 6 27 151 4 12 -38 11 36 148 21 1 -38 5 27 1.21
149 58 29 -38 29 28 13 7 7.8 29 108 -55 151 1 13 -38 31 7 148 54 14 -38 26 51 151 18 41 -38 31 25 148 35 49 -38 25 55 1.21
150 12 54 -38 49 29 13 7 12.2 29 108 -55 151 15 32 -38 50 54 149 8 46 -38 47 6 151 32 58 -38 51 8 148 50 23 -38 46 15 1.21
150 27 7 -39 9 22 13 7 16.7 30 107 -55 151 29 40 -39 10 34 149 23 5 -39 7 14 151 47 5 -39 10 44 149 4 43 -39 6 27 1.21
150 41 8 -39 29 8 13 7 21.1 30 107 -54 151 43 38 -39 30 7 149 37 11 -39 27 15 152 1 1 -39 30 14 149 18 51 -39 26 32 1.21
150 54 58 -39 48 48 13 7 25.6 30 107 -54 151 57 25 -39 49 34 149 51 6 -39 47 8 152 14 48 -39 49 37 149 32 47 -39 46 29 1.21
151 8 37 -40 8 22 13 7 30.0 30 106 -54 152 11 2 -40 8 55 150 4 49 -40 6 55 152 28 24 -40 8 55 149 46 31 -40 6 20 1.21
151 22 7 -40 27 49 13 7 34.4 31 106 -54 152 24 29 -40 28 10 150 18 20 -40 26 35 152 41 51 -40 28 6 150 0 4 -40 26 4 1.21
151 35 26 -40 47 10 13 7 38.9 31 106 -54 152 37 47 -40 47 19 150 31 41 -40 46 9 152 55 9 -40 47 13 150 13 26 -40 45 41 1.21
151 48 35 -41 6 26 13 7 43.3 31 105 -53 152 50 56 -41 6 23 150 44 52 -41 5 36 153 8 18 -41 6 14 150 26 37 -41 5 13 1.21
152 1 35 -41 25 36 13 7 47.7 31 105 -53 153 3 56 -41 25 22 150 57 52 -41 24 58 153 21 18 -41 25 10 150 39 38 -41 24 38 1.21
152 14 26 -41 44 41 13 7 52.2 32 105 -53 153 16 48 -41 44 16 151 10 43 -41 44 15 153 34 10 -41 44 0 150 52 28 -41 43 58 1.21
152 27 8 -42 3 40 13 7 56.6 32 104 -53 153 29 31 -42 3 5 151 23 24 -42 3 26 153 46 54 -42 2 47 151 5 9 -42 3 12 1.21
152 39 41 -42 22 35 13 8 1.0 32 104 -52 153 42 7 -42 21 49 151 35 56 -42 22 32 153 59 30 -42 21 28 151 17 41 -42 22 21 1.21
152 52 6 -42 41 25 13 8 5.5 32 104 -52 153 54 34 -42 40 29 151 48 19 -42 41 33 154 11 59 -42 40 5 151 30 3 -42 41 25 1.21
153 4 23 -43 0 11 13 8 9.9 33 104 -52 154 6 54 -42 59 5 152 0 33 -43 0 29 154 24 20 -42 58 38 151 42 17 -43 0 24 1.21
153 16 31 -43 18 52 13 8 14.3 33 103 -52 154 19 7 -43 17 36 152 12 38 -43 19 20 154 36 33 -43 17 6 151 54 21 -43 19 19 1.21
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