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Updated: 2021 JAN 18, 01:26 UT
Event Rank : 80
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Mar 13 UT, the 37.5503771771353 km diameter asteroid (450) Brigitta will occult a 8.8 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a fairly narrow path across south-eastern Australia from central Australia soon after evening twilight across New South Wales to near Eden at decreasing elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.99 mag to 15.79 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 621-025442 by 450 Brigitta on 2021 Mar 13
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
161 5 27 -48 0 0 9 51 36.9 2 331 -21 160 33 38 161 37 7 159 50 18 ... .. .. 0.68
160 10 39 -47 0 0 9 51 36.4 3 331 -21 159 39 9 160 42 0 158 56 15 161 24 8 0.91
159 15 7 -46 0 0 9 51 35.6 4 332 -21 158 43 54 159 46 10 158 1 23 160 27 55 1.01
158 18 48 -45 0 0 9 51 34.5 5 333 -21 157 47 49 158 49 36 157 5 38 159 31 0 1.07
157 21 38 -44 0 0 9 51 33.1 7 333 -21 156 50 52 157 52 13 156 8 57 158 33 20 1.10
156 23 34 -43 0 0 9 51 31.4 8 334 -21 155 52 58 156 53 59 155 11 16 157 34 50 1.13
155 24 31 -42 0 0 9 51 29.4 9 335 -20 154 54 3 155 54 47 154 12 31 156 35 28 1.15
154 24 25 -41 0 0 9 51 27.0 10 336 -20 153 54 3 154 54 36 153 12 38 155 35 7 1.16
153 23 12 -40 0 0 9 51 24.3 11 336 -20 152 52 53 153 53 19 152 11 32 154 33 45 1.17
152 20 46 -39 0 0 9 51 21.3 13 337 -19 151 50 27 152 50 52 151 9 7 153 31 15 1.18
151 17 1 -38 0 0 9 51 17.9 14 338 -19 150 46 41 151 47 8 150 5 17 152 27 33 1.19
150 11 52 -37 0 0 9 51 14.1 15 339 -18 149 41 28 150 42 3 148 59 56 151 22 32 1.20
149 5 11 -36 0 0 9 51 9.9 16 339 -18 148 34 39 149 35 29 147 52 57 150 16 5 1.21
147 56 51 -35 0 0 9 51 5.4 18 340 -17 147 26 8 148 27 18 146 44 11 149 8 6 1.21
146 46 42 -34 0 0 9 51 0.4 19 341 -17 146 15 46 147 17 22 145 33 29 147 58 26 1.22
145 34 35 -33 0 0 9 50 54.9 20 342 -16 145 3 22 146 5 31 144 20 39 146 46 56 1.22
144 20 19 -32 0 0 9 50 49.0 21 343 -15 143 48 44 144 51 35 143 5 30 145 33 26 1.22
143 3 40 -31 0 0 9 50 42.6 23 344 -14 142 31 39 143 35 21 141 47 47 144 17 43 1.23
141 44 23 -30 0 0 9 50 35.7 24 345 -13 141 11 51 142 16 34 140 27 14 142 59 34 1.23
140 22 11 -29 0 0 9 50 28.2 25 346 -12 139 49 1 140 54 58 139 3 30 141 38 43 1.24
138 56 43 -28 0 0 9 50 20.1 27 347 -11 138 22 48 139 30 12 137 36 12 140 14 51 1.24
137 27 34 -27 0 0 9 50 11.3 28 349 -10 136 52 45 138 1 53 136 4 52 138 47 36 1.24
135 54 12 -26 0 0 9 50 1.9 29 350 -9 135 18 19 136 29 32 134 28 52 137 16 32 1.25
134 15 59 -25 0 0 9 49 51.6 30 351 -7 133 38 49 134 52 33 132 47 29 135 41 5 1.25
132 32 8 -24 0 0 9 49 40.5 32 353 -6 131 53 23 133 10 10 130 59 43 134 0 34 1.25
130 41 34 -23 0 0 9 49 28.4 33 355 -4 130 0 51 131 21 26 129 4 17 132 14 7 1.26
128 42 52 -22 0 0 9 49 15.0 34 357 -2 127 59 39 129 25 2 126 59 22 130 20 34 1.26
126 34 1 -21 0 0 9 49 0.3 35 359 0 125 47 32 127 19 10 124 42 19 128 18 21 1.27
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
125 0 0 -20 19 34 9 48 49.5 36 1 1 -20 39 47 -19 59 30 -21 7 24 -19 32 38 1.27
124 0 0 -19 55 13 9 48 42.5 36 2 2 -20 15 17 -19 35 18 -20 42 42 -19 8 37 1.28
123 0 0 -19 32 0 9 48 35.5 36 3 3 -19 51 55 -19 12 13 -20 19 9 -18 45 43 1.28
122 0 0 -19 9 54 9 48 28.4 37 4 4 -19 29 42 -18 50 15 -19 56 44 -18 23 56 1.28
121 0 0 -18 48 56 9 48 21.4 37 5 5 -19 8 36 -18 29 24 -19 35 28 -18 3 14 1.28
120 0 0 -18 29 4 9 48 14.3 37 6 6 -18 48 37 -18 9 40 -19 15 19 -17 43 39 1.28
119 0 0 -18 10 19 9 48 7.2 37 7 7 -18 29 46 -17 51 1 -18 56 18 -17 25 9 1.29
118 0 0 -17 52 40 9 48 0.1 37 8 8 -18 12 1 -17 33 28 -18 38 25 -17 7 44 1.29
117 0 0 -17 36 7 9 47 53.0 38 9 9 -17 55 22 -17 17 1 -18 21 38 -16 51 24 1.29
116 0 0 -17 20 40 9 47 46.0 38 10 10 -17 39 49 -17 1 39 -18 5 58 -16 36 9 1.29
115 0 0 -17 6 18 9 47 38.9 38 11 11 -17 25 22 -16 47 22 -17 51 24 -16 21 58 1.29
114 0 0 -16 53 1 9 47 31.8 38 12 12 -17 12 0 -16 34 9 -17 37 55 -16 8 52 1.29
113 0 0 -16 40 48 9 47 24.8 38 14 13 -16 59 44 -16 22 1 -17 25 33 -15 56 49 1.29
112 0 0 -16 29 41 9 47 17.8 38 15 14 -16 48 32 -16 10 57 -17 14 16 -15 45 50 1.29
111 0 0 -16 19 37 9 47 10.8 38 16 15 -16 38 25 -16 0 57 -17 4 4 -15 35 54 1.29
110 0 0 -16 10 38 9 47 3.9 37 17 16 -16 29 23 -15 52 1 -16 54 57 -15 27 2 1.29
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2021 Jan 18.0
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