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Updated: 2020 Dec 31, 01:54 UT
Event Rank : 59
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Feb 26 UT, the 46 km diameter asteroid (280) Philia will occult a 9.7 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across Queensland, New South Wales, eastern Victoria and eastern Tasmania, passing over Sarina, Mackay, Dubbo, Parkes, Forbes and Lakes Entrance.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.76 mag to 15.41 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2451-00977-1 by 280 Philia on 2021 Feb 26
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
149 4 26 -45 0 0 12 16 10.8 12 343 -30 148 42 50 149 26 7 147 57 55 150 11 41 -0.69
148 52 53 -44 0 0 12 16 3.9 13 343 -31 148 31 41 149 14 10 147 47 35 149 58 53 -0.69
148 42 51 -43 0 0 12 15 56.4 14 344 -32 148 22 1 149 3 45 147 38 42 149 47 40 -0.69
148 34 14 -42 0 0 12 15 48.4 15 344 -32 148 13 45 148 54 47 147 31 10 149 37 57 -0.70
148 26 59 -41 0 0 12 15 39.9 16 344 -33 148 6 50 148 47 12 147 24 56 149 29 40 -0.70
148 21 2 -40 0 0 12 15 30.8 17 344 -34 148 1 11 148 40 56 147 19 55 149 22 44 -0.70
148 16 18 -39 0 0 12 15 21.2 18 344 -34 147 56 45 148 35 55 147 16 5 149 17 6 -0.70
148 12 45 -38 0 0 12 15 11.1 18 344 -35 147 53 29 148 32 5 147 13 23 149 12 41 -0.71
148 10 20 -37 0 0 12 15 0.4 19 344 -36 147 51 19 148 29 24 147 11 45 149 9 27 -0.71
148 8 59 -36 0 0 12 14 49.2 20 344 -37 147 50 13 148 27 48 147 11 9 149 7 20 -0.71
148 8 41 -35 0 0 12 14 37.5 21 344 -37 147 50 8 148 27 16 147 11 33 149 6 19 -0.71
148 9 22 -34 0 0 12 14 25.3 22 344 -38 147 51 3 148 27 45 147 12 55 149 6 20 0.71
148 11 2 -33 0 0 12 14 12.5 23 343 -39 147 52 55 148 29 12 147 15 12 149 7 22 0.71
148 13 38 -32 0 0 12 13 59.3 24 343 -40 147 55 42 148 31 37 147 18 23 149 9 22 0.71
148 17 8 -31 0 0 12 13 45.6 25 343 -40 147 59 23 148 34 56 147 22 27 149 12 18 0.71
148 21 32 -30 0 0 12 13 31.3 26 343 -41 148 3 57 148 39 9 147 27 21 149 16 10 0.71
148 26 46 -29 0 0 12 13 16.6 27 343 -42 148 9 21 148 44 15 147 33 5 149 20 55 0.71
148 32 51 -28 0 0 12 13 1.4 28 343 -43 148 15 35 148 50 11 147 39 37 149 26 32 0.71
148 39 45 -27 0 0 12 12 45.7 29 342 -43 148 22 37 148 56 56 147 46 57 149 33 0 0.71
148 47 27 -26 0 0 12 12 29.5 30 342 -44 148 30 27 149 4 31 147 55 3 149 40 18 0.71
148 55 57 -25 0 0 12 12 12.8 31 342 -45 148 39 3 149 12 53 148 3 54 149 48 25 0.71
149 5 12 -24 0 0 12 11 55.7 32 342 -46 148 48 26 149 22 1 148 13 30 149 57 20 0.71
149 15 13 -23 0 0 12 11 38.1 33 341 -46 148 58 33 149 31 56 148 23 51 150 7 1 0.71
149 25 59 -22 0 0 12 11 20.1 34 341 -47 149 9 25 149 42 37 148 34 54 150 17 30 0.71
149 37 30 -21 0 0 12 11 1.6 35 341 -48 149 21 1 149 54 2 148 46 41 150 28 44 0.71
149 49 45 -20 0 0 12 10 42.6 35 340 -49 149 33 20 150 6 12 148 59 10 150 40 44 0.71
150 2 43 -19 0 0 12 10 23.2 36 340 -49 149 46 22 150 19 6 149 12 22 150 53 29 0.71
150 16 24 -18 0 0 12 10 3.3 37 340 -50 150 0 8 150 32 43 149 26 15 151 6 58 0.71
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