|
|
Updated: 2020 Dec 31, 01:31 UT
Event Rank : 86
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Feb 20 UT, the 36 km diameter asteroid (1036) Ganymed will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Monoceros for observers along a slightly uncertain path across New Zealand, passing over Nelson.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.30 mag to 14.31 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 5366-00524-1 by 1036 Ganymed on 2021 Feb 20
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
173 54 13 -43 49 58 9 52 1.2 53 328 -24 173 40 16 -43 50 18 174 8 12 -43 49 38 173 23 57 -43 50 41 174 24 33 -43 49 13 -0.25
173 45 48 -43 23 46 9 52 4.9 53 328 -24 173 31 57 -43 24 5 173 59 40 -43 23 26 173 15 46 -43 24 28 174 15 54 -43 23 2 -0.25
173 37 36 -42 57 41 9 52 8.6 54 328 -24 173 23 52 -42 58 0 173 51 22 -42 57 21 173 7 48 -42 58 22 174 7 29 -42 56 58 -0.25
173 29 37 -42 31 43 9 52 12.3 54 327 -24 173 15 58 -42 32 2 173 43 17 -42 31 24 173 0 2 -42 32 23 173 59 16 -42 31 1 -0.25
173 21 50 -42 5 52 9 52 16.1 54 327 -25 173 8 17 -42 6 11 173 35 23 -42 5 33 172 52 27 -42 6 31 173 51 16 -42 5 11 -0.25
173 14 14 -41 40 8 9 52 19.8 55 327 -25 173 0 47 -41 40 26 173 27 42 -41 39 50 172 45 4 -41 40 47 173 43 28 -41 39 27 -0.25
173 6 50 -41 14 31 9 52 23.5 55 327 -25 172 53 29 -41 14 48 173 20 12 -41 14 12 172 37 52 -41 15 8 173 35 52 -41 13 50 -0.25
172 59 37 -40 49 0 9 52 27.3 56 327 -25 172 46 21 -40 49 17 173 12 53 -40 48 42 172 30 51 -40 49 37 173 28 26 -40 48 20 -0.25
172 52 34 -40 23 35 9 52 31.0 56 327 -26 172 39 23 -40 23 52 173 5 45 -40 23 17 172 23 59 -40 24 11 173 21 12 -40 22 56 -0.25
172 45 41 -39 58 16 9 52 34.7 56 326 -26 172 32 36 -39 58 33 172 58 47 -39 57 59 172 17 18 -39 58 52 173 14 8 -39 57 38 -0.25
172 38 58 -39 33 3 9 52 38.5 57 326 -26 172 25 58 -39 33 20 172 51 59 -39 32 46 172 10 46 -39 33 38 173 7 14 -39 32 26 -0.25
172 32 25 -39 7 56 9 52 42.2 57 326 -26 172 19 29 -39 8 13 172 45 21 -39 7 40 172 4 23 -39 8 31 173 0 30 -39 7 20 -0.25
172 26 0 -38 42 55 9 52 45.9 58 326 -27 172 13 9 -38 43 11 172 38 52 -38 42 39 171 58 9 -38 43 29 172 53 55 -38 42 19 -0.25
172 19 45 -38 17 59 9 52 49.6 58 326 -27 172 6 58 -38 18 15 172 32 31 -38 17 43 171 52 3 -38 18 33 172 47 29 -38 17 24 -0.25
172 13 38 -37 53 9 9 52 53.4 58 325 -27 172 0 56 -37 53 25 172 26 20 -37 52 53 171 46 6 -37 53 42 172 41 12 -37 52 34 -0.25
172 7 39 -37 28 24 9 52 57.1 59 325 -27 171 55 2 -37 28 39 172 20 17 -37 28 9 171 40 17 -37 28 57 172 35 4 -37 27 50 -0.25
172 1 48 -37 3 44 9 53 0.8 59 325 -27 171 49 15 -37 3 59 172 14 21 -37 3 29 171 34 36 -37 4 16 172 29 4 -37 3 10 -0.25
171 56 5 -36 39 10 9 53 4.6 59 325 -28 171 43 36 -36 39 24 172 8 34 -36 38 54 171 29 2 -36 39 41 172 23 11 -36 38 36 -0.25
171 50 30 -36 14 40 9 53 8.3 60 324 -28 171 38 5 -36 14 54 172 2 55 -36 14 25 171 23 35 -36 15 11 172 17 27 -36 14 7 -0.25
171 45 1 -35 50 15 9 53 12.0 60 324 -28 171 32 41 -35 50 29 171 57 22 -35 50 0 171 18 16 -35 50 45 172 11 50 -35 49 42 -0.25
171 39 40 -35 25 54 9 53 15.8 61 324 -28 171 27 24 -35 26 8 171 51 58 -35 25 40 171 13 3 -35 26 24 172 6 20 -35 25 22 -0.25
171 34 26 -35 1 38 9 53 19.5 61 323 -29 171 22 14 -35 1 52 171 46 40 -35 1 24 171 7 57 -35 2 8 172 0 58 -35 1 7 -0.25
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]