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Updated: 2020 Dec 31, 01:02 UT
Event Rank : 79
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Feb 04 UT, the 56 km diameter asteroid (679) Pax will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a slightly uncertain path across eastern and northern Victoria, south-western New South Wales, north-eastern South Australia, Northern Territory and northern West Australia, passing over Broken Hill and Wodonga.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.98 mag to 12.72 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-584-037603 by 679 Pax on 2021 Feb 4
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
151 53 38 -40 0 0 15 54 3.8 6 312 -29 152 23 49 151 23 36 153 5 24 150 42 43 0.09
150 26 16 -39 0 0 15 54 5.4 7 313 -30 150 55 36 149 57 4 151 36 0 149 17 17 0.10
149 2 10 -38 0 0 15 54 7.4 9 314 -32 149 30 44 148 33 44 150 10 4 147 54 57 0.11
147 41 3 -37 0 0 15 54 9.7 10 315 -33 148 8 54 147 13 17 148 47 15 146 35 26 0.11
146 22 36 -36 0 0 15 54 12.4 12 315 -34 146 49 49 145 55 28 147 27 16 145 18 28 0.11
145 6 36 -35 0 0 15 54 15.4 13 316 -36 145 33 14 144 40 3 146 9 51 144 3 50 0.12
143 52 50 -34 0 0 15 54 18.7 14 317 -37 144 18 55 143 26 49 144 54 47 142 51 19 0.12
142 41 6 -33 0 0 15 54 22.3 16 317 -38 143 6 41 142 15 35 143 41 51 141 40 44 0.12
141 31 15 -32 0 0 15 54 26.2 17 318 -40 141 56 22 141 6 11 142 30 53 140 31 57 0.12
140 23 6 -31 0 0 15 54 30.4 19 319 -41 140 47 48 139 58 27 141 21 43 139 24 47 0.13
139 16 31 -30 0 0 15 54 34.9 20 319 -42 139 40 49 138 52 16 140 14 12 138 19 8 0.13
138 11 23 -29 0 0 15 54 39.7 21 320 -43 138 35 19 137 47 30 139 8 11 137 14 51 0.13
137 7 35 -28 0 0 15 54 44.7 23 320 -45 137 31 11 136 44 2 138 3 34 136 11 50 0.13
136 5 0 -27 0 0 15 54 50.0 24 321 -46 136 28 16 135 41 45 137 0 13 135 9 59 0.13
135 3 31 -26 0 0 15 54 55.5 25 321 -47 135 26 31 134 40 34 135 58 3 134 9 12 0.13
134 3 5 -25 0 0 15 55 1.4 27 322 -48 134 25 48 133 40 24 134 56 57 133 9 23 0.13
133 3 35 -24 0 0 15 55 7.4 28 322 -49 133 26 2 132 41 9 133 56 51 132 10 28 0.13
132 4 57 -23 0 0 15 55 13.7 29 323 -50 132 27 10 131 42 45 132 57 39 131 12 23 0.13
131 7 6 -22 0 0 15 55 20.3 31 323 -52 131 29 6 130 45 6 131 59 17 130 15 2 0.13
130 9 58 -21 0 0 15 55 27.1 32 323 -53 130 31 46 129 48 10 131 1 40 129 18 22 0.13
129 13 29 -20 0 0 15 55 34.1 33 324 -54 129 35 6 128 51 52 130 4 45 128 22 18 0.13
128 17 36 -19 0 0 15 55 41.4 35 324 -55 128 39 3 127 56 9 129 8 27 127 26 49 0.13
127 22 14 -18 0 0 15 55 48.9 36 324 -56 127 43 32 127 0 57 128 12 43 126 31 49 0.13
126 27 21 -17 0 0 15 55 56.6 37 325 -57 126 48 30 126 6 12 127 17 30 125 37 16 0.13
125 32 54 -16 0 0 15 56 4.6 38 325 -58 125 53 55 125 11 52 126 22 44 124 43 6 0.13
124 38 48 -15 0 0 15 56 12.8 40 325 -59 124 59 43 124 17 54 125 28 22 123 49 17 0.13
123 45 2 -14 0 0 15 56 21.1 41 326 -60 124 5 51 123 24 14 124 34 21 122 55 45 0.13
122 51 33 -13 0 0 15 56 29.7 42 326 -61 123 12 16 122 30 50 123 40 38 122 2 28 0.13
121 58 17 -12 0 0 15 56 38.5 44 326 -62 122 18 55 121 37 39 122 47 10 121 9 24 0.13
121 5 12 -11 0 0 15 56 47.6 45 327 -63 121 25 46 120 44 38 121 53 55 120 16 28 0.13
120 12 16 -10 0 0 15 56 56.8 46 327 -64 120 32 46 119 51 45 121 0 50 119 23 40 0.13
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