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Updated: 2020 DEC 31, 00:54 UT
Event Rank : 90
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jan 28 UT, the 43.5 km diameter asteroid (500) Selinur will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a path across south-western Western Australia from near Esperance to Carnarvon.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.00 mag to 13.69 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1823-00339-1 by 500 Selinur on 2021 Jan 28
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
125 20 5 -38 0 0 13 34 27.4 19 329 -25 125 0 9 125 40 2 124 39 26 126 0 48 0.34
124 22 18 -37 0 0 13 34 19.4 20 330 -26 124 2 41 124 41 57 123 42 17 125 2 23 0.34
123 25 36 -36 0 0 13 34 10.8 21 331 -26 123 6 16 123 44 57 122 46 9 124 5 5 0.34
122 29 52 -35 0 0 13 34 1.8 23 331 -26 122 10 48 122 48 57 121 50 58 123 8 48 0.34
121 35 2 -34 0 0 13 33 52.2 24 332 -27 121 16 13 121 53 52 120 56 39 122 13 27 0.34
120 41 1 -33 0 0 13 33 42.2 25 333 -27 120 22 26 120 59 37 120 3 6 121 18 57 0.34
119 47 45 -32 0 0 13 33 31.7 26 333 -27 119 29 23 120 6 7 119 10 17 120 25 14 0.35
118 55 9 -31 0 0 13 33 20.7 28 334 -27 118 37 0 119 13 19 118 18 6 119 32 13 0.35
118 3 10 -30 0 0 13 33 9.2 29 334 -27 117 45 12 118 21 9 117 26 30 118 39 51 0.35
117 11 44 -29 0 0 13 32 57.3 30 335 -27 116 53 56 117 29 32 116 35 24 117 48 3 0.35
116 20 47 -28 0 0 13 32 44.9 31 336 -28 116 3 8 116 38 25 115 44 47 116 56 46 0.35
115 30 16 -27 0 0 13 32 32.0 32 336 -28 115 12 46 115 47 45 114 54 34 116 5 56 0.35
114 40 7 -26 0 0 13 32 18.6 34 337 -28 114 22 46 114 57 28 114 4 42 115 15 30 0.35
113 50 17 -25 0 0 13 32 4.8 35 338 -28 113 33 4 114 7 31 113 15 8 114 25 25 0.35
113 0 44 -24 0 0 13 31 50.6 36 338 -28 112 43 37 113 17 51 112 25 48 113 35 38 0.35
112 11 24 -23 0 0 13 31 35.9 37 339 -28 111 54 23 112 28 24 111 36 40 112 46 5 0.35
111 22 14 -22 0 0 13 31 20.7 39 339 -28 111 5 19 111 39 9 110 47 42 111 56 44 0.35
110 33 12 -21 0 0 13 31 5.0 40 340 -27 110 16 21 110 50 2 109 58 49 111 7 31 0.36
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2020 Dec 31.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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