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Updated: 2020 DEC 31, 00:50 UT
Event Rank : 66
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jan 25 UT, the 38.7 km diameter asteroid (3171) Wangshouguan will occult a 10.5 mag star in the constellation Leo Minor for observers along a narrow path across the North Island of New Zealand, from roughly Napier to Hamilton, and across northern Australia, from Cooktown across northern Queensland to Weipa and across northern Northern Territory north of Darwin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.22 mag to 15.71 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1974-00030-1 by 3171 Wangshouguan on 2021 Jan 25
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
179 9 9 -42 0 0 15 11 27.0 18 343 -17 179 34 34 178 43 38 -179 39 3 177 56 39 1.00
178 7 49 -41 0 0 15 11 32.4 19 343 -18 178 33 4 177 42 29 179 19 7 176 55 49 1.00
177 5 58 -40 0 0 15 11 38.2 20 344 -20 177 31 4 176 40 47 178 16 51 175 54 22 1.00
176 3 32 -39 0 0 15 11 44.3 22 345 -21 176 28 30 175 38 28 177 14 3 174 52 17 1.00
175 0 27 -38 0 0 15 11 50.9 23 346 -22 175 25 19 174 35 29 176 10 40 173 49 27 1.01
173 56 37 -37 0 0 15 11 57.8 24 347 -23 174 21 25 173 31 44 175 6 37 172 45 50 1.01
172 51 59 -36 0 0 15 12 5.1 25 348 -25 173 16 44 172 27 8 174 1 50 171 41 19 1.01
171 46 28 -35 0 0 15 12 12.8 26 349 -26 172 11 11 171 21 38 172 56 14 170 35 50 1.01
170 39 58 -34 0 0 15 12 20.9 27 350 -27 171 4 41 170 15 8 171 49 43 169 29 19 1.01
169 32 24 -33 0 0 15 12 29.5 29 350 -29 169 57 9 169 7 32 170 42 14 168 21 39 1.01
168 23 41 -32 0 0 15 12 38.5 30 352 -30 168 48 30 167 58 45 169 33 40 167 12 44 1.01
167 13 42 -31 0 0 15 12 47.9 31 353 -31 167 38 36 166 48 41 168 23 55 166 2 28 1.01
166 2 21 -30 0 0 15 12 57.8 32 354 -33 166 27 22 165 37 12 167 12 53 164 50 45 1.01
164 49 30 -29 0 0 15 13 8.1 33 355 -34 165 14 40 164 24 12 166 0 27 163 37 26 1.01
163 35 2 -28 0 0 15 13 19.0 34 356 -36 164 0 23 163 9 32 164 46 29 162 22 23 1.01
162 18 47 -27 0 0 15 13 30.3 35 357 -37 162 44 22 161 53 3 163 30 52 161 5 26 1.01
161 0 37 -26 0 0 15 13 42.1 36 359 -39 161 26 28 160 34 35 162 13 26 159 46 26 1.01
159 40 19 -25 0 0 15 13 54.5 37 0 -40 160 6 29 159 13 58 160 54 1 158 25 10 1.01
158 17 42 -24 0 0 15 14 7.4 38 2 -41 158 44 15 157 50 58 159 32 25 157 1 25 1.01
156 52 32 -23 0 0 15 14 20.9 39 3 -43 157 19 31 156 25 20 158 8 26 155 34 56 1.01
155 24 32 -22 0 0 15 14 35.0 40 5 -44 155 52 1 154 56 49 156 41 49 154 5 24 1.01
153 53 23 -21 0 0 15 14 49.8 41 7 -46 154 21 27 153 25 4 155 12 17 152 32 28 1.01
152 18 44 -20 0 0 15 15 5.3 42 8 -47 152 47 29 151 49 42 153 39 29 150 55 44 1.01
150 40 7 -19 0 0 15 15 21.5 42 10 -49 151 9 40 150 10 16 152 3 3 149 14 42 1.01
148 57 1 -18 0 0 15 15 38.5 43 13 -51 149 27 30 148 26 12 150 22 30 147 28 43 1.01
147 8 46 -17 0 0 15 15 56.4 44 15 -52 147 40 21 146 36 47 148 37 15 145 37 3 1.01
145 14 32 -16 0 0 15 16 15.3 44 17 -54 145 47 26 144 41 10 146 46 37 143 38 42 1.01
143 13 15 -15 0 0 15 16 35.3 44 20 -55 143 47 46 142 38 11 144 49 40 141 32 21 1.01
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
142 0 0 -14 25 36 15 16 47.3 45 21 -56 -14 9 7 -14 42 10 -13 39 9 -15 12 46 1.01
141 0 0 -13 58 27 15 16 57.2 45 23 -57 -13 42 5 -14 14 54 -13 12 18 -14 45 18 1.01
140 0 0 -13 32 13 15 17 7.0 45 24 -57 -13 15 57 -13 48 34 -12 46 22 -14 18 46 1.01
139 0 0 -13 6 54 15 17 16.7 45 25 -58 -12 50 45 -13 23 9 -12 21 20 -13 53 10 1.01
138 0 0 -12 42 30 15 17 26.4 45 26 -58 -12 26 26 -12 58 39 -11 57 12 -13 28 29 1.01
137 0 0 -12 19 1 15 17 36.1 45 27 -59 -12 3 2 -12 35 4 -11 33 58 -13 4 43 1.01
136 0 0 -11 56 26 15 17 45.7 44 29 -59 -11 40 32 -12 12 24 -11 11 37 -12 41 53 1.01
135 0 0 -11 34 45 15 17 55.2 44 30 -60 -11 18 56 -11 50 37 -10 50 10 -12 19 57 1.01
134 0 0 -11 13 57 15 18 4.7 44 31 -60 -10 58 14 -11 29 45 -10 29 36 -11 58 56 1.01
133 0 0 -10 54 4 15 18 14.1 44 32 -60 -10 38 25 -11 9 47 -10 9 55 -11 38 49 1.01
132 0 0 -10 35 4 15 18 23.4 44 33 -61 -10 19 29 -10 50 43 - 9 51 7 -11 19 36 1.01
131 0 0 -10 16 57 15 18 32.7 43 34 -61 -10 1 26 -10 32 32 - 9 33 12 -11 1 18 1.01
130 0 0 - 9 59 43 15 18 41.8 43 35 -61 - 9 44 16 -10 15 14 - 9 16 9 -10 43 53 1.01
129 0 0 - 9 43 22 15 18 50.9 43 36 -61 - 9 27 59 - 9 58 50 - 8 59 58 -10 27 21 1.01
128 0 0 - 9 27 54 15 18 59.9 42 37 -61 - 9 12 34 - 9 43 18 - 8 44 39 -10 11 43 1.01
127 0 0 - 9 13 19 15 19 8.9 42 38 -61 - 8 58 2 - 9 28 39 - 8 30 13 - 9 56 59 1.01
126 0 0 - 8 59 35 15 19 17.7 42 39 -61 - 8 44 22 - 9 14 53 - 8 16 38 - 9 43 7 1.01
125 0 0 - 8 46 45 15 19 26.4 41 40 -61 - 8 31 34 - 9 1 59 - 8 3 55 - 9 30 8 1.01
124 0 0 - 8 34 46 15 19 35.1 41 41 -61 - 8 19 37 - 8 49 58 - 7 52 3 - 9 18 2 1.01
123 0 0 - 8 23 39 15 19 43.6 40 42 -61 - 8 8 33 - 8 38 49 - 7 41 3 - 9 6 48 1.01
122 0 0 - 8 13 24 15 19 52.0 40 43 -61 - 7 58 20 - 8 28 32 - 7 30 54 - 8 56 27 1.01
121 0 0 - 8 4 1 15 20 0.3 39 44 -61 - 7 48 59 - 8 19 7 - 7 21 36 - 8 46 58 1.01
120 0 0 - 7 55 29 15 20 8.5 39 44 -60 - 7 40 29 - 8 10 33 - 7 13 9 - 8 38 21 1.01
119 0 0 - 7 47 49 15 20 16.6 38 45 -60 - 7 32 51 - 8 2 52 - 7 5 34 - 8 30 37 1.01
118 0 0 - 7 41 1 15 20 24.6 37 46 -60 - 7 26 4 - 7 56 2 - 6 58 49 - 8 23 45 1.01
117 0 0 - 7 35 4 15 20 32.5 37 46 -59 - 7 20 8 - 7 50 5 - 6 52 56 - 8 17 45 1.01
116 0 0 - 7 29 59 15 20 40.2 36 47 -59 - 7 15 4 - 7 44 58 - 6 47 53 - 8 12 37 1.01
115 0 0 - 7 25 46 15 20 47.9 35 48 -58 - 7 10 51 - 7 40 44 - 6 43 42 - 8 8 21 1.02
114 0 0 - 7 22 24 15 20 55.4 35 48 -58 - 7 7 30 - 7 37 21 - 6 40 21 - 8 4 58 1.02
113 0 0 - 7 19 53 15 21 2.7 34 49 -57 - 7 4 59 - 7 34 51 - 6 37 51 - 8 2 26 1.02
112 0 0 - 7 18 14 15 21 10.0 33 49 -57 - 7 3 21 - 7 33 11 - 6 36 13 - 8 0 47 1.02
111 0 0 - 7 17 27 15 21 17.1 33 50 -56 - 7 2 33 - 7 32 24 - 6 35 25 - 8 0 0 1.02
110 0 0 - 7 17 31 15 21 24.0 32 51 -56 - 7 2 38 - 7 32 29 - 6 35 29 - 8 0 5 1.02
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2020 Dec 31.0
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