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Updated: 2020 DEC 31, 00:45 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jan 21 UT, the 85 km diameter asteroid (416) Vaticana will occult a 9.0 mag star in the constellation Lynx for observers along a path across western Western Australia from east of Esperance to Exmouth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.28 mag to 12.26 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2496-00121-1 by 416 Vaticana on 2021 Jan 21
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
128 51 7 -38 0 0 17 15 32.4 17 351 -28 129 42 51 127 58 49 130 7 49 127 33 12 1.13
128 6 49 -37 0 0 17 15 36.5 18 352 -29 128 58 21 127 14 44 129 23 12 126 49 12 1.13
127 21 28 -36 0 0 17 15 41.0 19 353 -30 128 12 49 126 29 32 128 37 36 126 4 4 1.14
126 35 0 -35 0 0 17 15 45.7 20 353 -31 127 26 14 125 43 10 127 50 57 125 17 45 1.14
125 47 23 -34 0 0 17 15 50.7 22 354 -32 126 38 33 124 55 36 127 3 14 124 30 13 1.14
124 58 34 -33 0 0 17 15 56.1 23 354 -34 125 49 43 124 6 48 126 14 23 123 41 24 1.14
124 8 30 -32 0 0 17 16 1.7 24 355 -35 124 59 41 123 16 40 125 24 21 122 51 14 1.14
123 17 6 -31 0 0 17 16 7.6 25 356 -36 124 8 23 122 25 10 124 33 5 121 59 41 1.15
122 24 20 -30 0 0 17 16 13.9 26 357 -37 123 15 45 121 32 14 123 40 31 121 6 39 1.15
121 30 6 -29 0 0 17 16 20.5 27 357 -38 122 21 43 120 37 46 122 46 35 120 12 4 1.15
120 34 19 -28 0 0 17 16 27.4 28 358 -40 121 26 13 119 41 42 121 51 11 119 15 51 1.15
119 36 55 -27 0 0 17 16 34.7 29 359 -41 120 29 8 118 43 55 120 54 15 118 17 52 1.15
118 37 45 -26 0 0 17 16 42.3 30 360 -42 119 30 23 117 44 20 119 55 42 117 18 3 1.15
117 36 45 -25 0 0 17 16 50.4 31 1 -43 118 29 51 116 42 48 118 55 23 116 16 15 1.15
116 33 45 -24 0 0 17 16 58.7 32 2 -45 117 27 26 115 39 11 117 53 13 115 12 19 1.15
115 28 37 -23 0 0 17 17 7.5 33 3 -46 116 22 57 114 33 19 116 49 3 114 6 5 1.15
114 21 10 -22 0 0 17 17 16.8 34 4 -47 115 16 16 113 25 3 115 42 43 112 57 22 1.15
113 11 13 -21 0 0 17 17 26.4 35 5 -48 114 7 13 112 14 7 114 34 4 111 45 57 1.15
111 58 32 -20 0 0 17 17 36.5 35 6 -49 112 55 33 111 0 19 113 22 52 110 31 35 1.15
110 42 51 -19 0 0 17 17 47.1 36 8 -51 111 41 3 109 43 21 112 8 55 109 13 56 1.15
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2020 Dec 31.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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