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Updated: 2020 DEC 31, 00:38 UT
Event Rank : 98
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jan 14 UT, the 76.8 km diameter asteroid (1118) Hanskya will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across northern Australia, from Darwin along the western Northern Territory coast, and across north-western Western Australia from Wyndham to Moora.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.62 mag to 15.08 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2416-00388-1 by 1118 Hanskya on 2021 Jan 14
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
110 3 18 -36 0 0 12 32 13.9 11 26 -7 109 26 3 110 40 39 108 58 10 111 8 46 0.63
110 52 21 -35 0 0 12 32 11.2 12 25 -8 110 15 24 111 29 24 109 47 45 111 57 17 0.64
111 41 28 -34 0 0 12 32 8.3 14 25 -9 111 4 48 112 18 15 110 37 22 112 45 56 0.64
112 30 43 -33 0 0 12 32 5.1 15 24 -10 111 54 18 113 7 15 111 27 3 113 34 45 0.65
113 20 8 -32 0 0 12 32 1.6 16 24 -11 112 43 57 113 56 27 112 16 52 114 23 47 0.65
114 9 46 -31 0 0 12 31 57.8 17 23 -12 113 33 47 114 45 53 113 6 52 115 13 4 0.65
114 59 39 -30 0 0 12 31 53.8 18 23 -13 114 23 51 115 35 36 113 57 4 116 2 40 0.66
115 49 51 -29 0 0 12 31 49.4 20 22 -15 115 14 12 116 25 38 114 47 31 116 52 36 0.66
116 40 23 -28 0 0 12 31 44.8 21 22 -16 116 4 52 117 16 3 115 38 17 117 42 55 0.66
117 31 18 -27 0 0 12 31 39.9 22 21 -17 116 55 53 118 6 52 116 29 24 118 33 40 0.66
118 22 40 -26 0 0 12 31 34.7 23 21 -18 117 47 20 118 58 10 117 20 55 119 24 54 0.66
119 14 31 -25 0 0 12 31 29.2 24 20 -19 118 39 14 119 49 57 118 12 52 120 16 39 0.66
120 6 53 -24 0 0 12 31 23.4 26 20 -21 119 31 39 120 42 18 119 5 18 121 8 59 0.66
120 59 50 -23 0 0 12 31 17.3 27 19 -22 120 24 36 121 35 14 119 58 17 122 1 55 0.66
121 53 25 -22 0 0 12 31 10.9 28 19 -23 121 18 10 122 28 50 120 51 50 122 55 33 0.67
122 47 40 -21 0 0 12 31 4.2 29 18 -24 122 12 23 123 23 9 121 46 2 123 49 53 0.67
123 42 40 -20 0 0 12 30 57.2 30 17 -25 123 7 19 124 18 13 122 40 55 124 45 1 0.67
124 38 27 -19 0 0 12 30 49.9 32 17 -27 124 3 1 125 14 6 123 36 33 125 40 59 0.67
125 35 6 -18 0 0 12 30 42.2 33 16 -28 124 59 32 126 10 52 124 32 59 126 37 51 0.67
126 32 39 -17 0 0 12 30 34.3 34 16 -29 125 56 57 127 8 35 125 30 17 127 35 42 0.67
127 31 12 -16 0 0 12 30 25.9 35 15 -31 126 55 19 128 7 19 126 28 31 128 34 35 0.67
128 30 48 -15 0 0 12 30 17.3 36 14 -32 127 54 42 129 7 9 127 27 46 129 34 35 0.67
129 31 33 -14 0 0 12 30 8.3 38 13 -33 128 55 12 130 8 8 128 28 5 130 35 47 0.67
130 33 30 -13 0 0 12 29 59.0 39 13 -35 129 56 53 131 10 24 129 29 34 131 38 16 0.67
131 36 47 -12 0 0 12 29 49.3 40 12 -36 130 59 50 132 14 0 130 32 17 132 42 8 0.67
132 41 28 -11 0 0 12 29 39.2 41 11 -38 132 4 9 133 19 4 131 36 21 133 47 29 0.67
133 47 40 -10 0 0 12 29 28.8 42 10 -39 133 9 57 134 25 42 132 41 51 134 54 27 0.67
134 55 31 - 9 0 0 12 29 17.9 43 9 -40 134 17 20 135 34 1 133 48 55 136 3 8 0.67
136 5 7 - 8 0 0 12 29 6.7 45 8 -42 135 26 27 136 44 10 134 57 39 137 13 42 0.67
137 16 39 - 7 0 0 12 28 55.0 46 7 -43 136 37 24 137 56 17 136 8 11 138 26 18 0.66
138 30 16 - 6 0 0 12 28 42.9 47 5 -45 137 50 23 139 10 34 137 20 42 139 41 6 0.66
139 46 9 - 5 0 0 12 28 30.4 48 4 -47 139 5 33 140 27 12 138 35 21 140 58 19 0.66
141 4 30 - 4 0 0 12 28 17.4 49 3 -48 140 23 6 141 46 24 139 52 20 142 18 10 0.66
142 25 35 - 3 0 0 12 28 3.8 50 1 -50 141 43 17 143 8 24 141 11 52 143 40 55 0.66
143 49 39 - 2 0 0 12 27 49.8 51 359 -51 143 6 20 144 33 32 142 34 11 145 6 52 0.66
145 17 1 - 1 0 0 12 27 35.2 52 358 -53 144 32 34 146 2 7 143 59 36 146 36 24 0.66
146 48 6 0 0 0 12 27 19.9 53 356 -55 146 2 20 147 34 34 145 28 27 148 9 56 0.66
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2020 Dec 31.0
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