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Updated: 2020 DEC 31, 00:37 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jan 13 UT, the 176.3 km diameter asteroid (409) Aspasia will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Crater for observers along a path broad across the South Island of New Zealand, from Gore to Queenstown.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.04 mag to 12.08 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 25.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 5512-00020-1 by 409 Aspasia on 2021 Jan 13
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
165 15 42 -11 18 52 15 11 55.9 65 95 -45 166 6 58 -11 7 18 164 23 59 -11 30 16 166 16 42 -11 5 4 164 14 5 -11 32 25 0.44
165 25 10 -12 1 22 15 12 7.6 66 94 -45 166 16 33 -11 49 46 164 33 21 -12 12 48 166 26 17 -11 47 32 164 23 25 -12 14 58 0.44
165 29 49 -12 22 37 15 12 13.5 66 93 -44 166 21 16 -12 10 59 164 37 57 -12 34 4 166 31 1 -12 8 45 164 28 1 -12 36 13 0.44
165 34 26 -12 43 51 15 12 19.3 66 92 -44 166 25 56 -12 32 12 164 42 31 -12 55 19 166 35 42 -12 29 57 164 32 34 -12 57 29 0.44
165 39 0 -13 5 5 15 12 25.2 66 91 -44 166 30 33 -12 53 25 164 47 1 -13 16 34 166 40 20 -12 51 10 164 37 3 -13 18 44 0.44
165 43 31 -13 26 18 15 12 31.0 66 91 -43 166 35 8 -13 14 37 164 51 28 -13 37 49 166 44 56 -13 12 22 164 41 29 -13 39 59 0.43
165 47 59 -13 47 31 15 12 36.9 66 90 -43 166 39 40 -13 35 49 164 55 52 -13 59 3 166 49 28 -13 33 34 164 45 53 -14 1 14 0.43
165 52 25 -14 8 45 15 12 42.7 66 89 -43 166 44 10 -13 57 1 165 0 13 -14 20 18 166 53 59 -13 54 45 164 50 13 -14 22 28 0.43
165 56 48 -14 29 58 15 12 48.6 66 88 -42 166 48 37 -14 18 13 165 4 32 -14 41 32 166 58 27 -14 15 57 164 54 31 -14 43 43 0.43
166 1 8 -14 51 11 15 12 54.5 66 87 -42 166 53 1 -14 39 24 165 8 48 -15 2 46 167 2 52 -14 37 9 164 58 46 -15 4 57 0.43
166 5 25 -15 12 24 15 13 0.3 66 86 -42 166 57 23 -15 0 36 165 13 0 -15 24 0 167 7 15 -14 58 20 165 2 58 -15 26 12 0.43
166 9 40 -15 33 37 15 13 6.2 67 86 -41 167 1 43 -15 21 48 165 17 10 -15 45 15 167 11 35 -15 19 32 165 7 7 -15 47 27 0.43
166 13 52 -15 54 50 15 13 12.0 67 85 -41 167 6 0 -15 43 0 165 21 18 -16 6 29 167 15 53 -15 40 43 165 11 13 -16 8 41 0.43
166 18 2 -16 16 3 15 13 17.9 67 84 -41 167 10 14 -16 4 12 165 25 22 -16 27 44 167 20 9 -16 1 55 165 15 17 -16 29 56 0.43
166 22 9 -16 37 17 15 13 23.7 67 83 -40 167 14 27 -16 25 24 165 29 24 -16 48 59 167 24 22 -16 23 7 165 19 18 -16 51 11 0.43
166 26 14 -16 58 30 15 13 29.6 67 82 -40 167 18 37 -16 46 36 165 33 23 -17 10 14 167 28 33 -16 44 19 165 23 16 -17 12 27 0.43
166 30 16 -17 19 44 15 13 35.5 67 81 -40 167 22 44 -17 7 49 165 37 20 -17 31 29 167 32 42 -17 5 31 165 27 11 -17 33 42 0.43
166 34 16 -17 40 59 15 13 41.3 67 80 -40 167 26 50 -17 29 2 165 41 14 -17 52 45 167 36 48 -17 26 44 165 31 4 -17 54 58 0.43
166 38 13 -18 2 14 15 13 47.2 67 80 -39 167 30 53 -17 50 15 165 45 6 -18 14 1 167 40 52 -17 47 57 165 34 55 -18 16 15 0.43
166 42 8 -18 23 29 15 13 53.0 67 79 -39 167 34 54 -18 11 29 165 48 55 -18 35 18 167 44 54 -18 9 11 165 38 42 -18 37 32 0.43
166 46 1 -18 44 45 15 13 58.9 67 78 -39 167 38 53 -18 32 44 165 52 41 -18 56 35 167 48 54 -18 30 25 165 42 28 -18 58 50 0.43
166 49 51 -19 6 1 15 14 4.7 67 77 -38 167 42 49 -18 53 58 165 56 25 -19 17 53 167 52 52 -18 51 40 165 46 10 -19 20 8 0.43
166 53 39 -19 27 18 15 14 10.6 67 76 -38 167 46 44 -19 15 14 166 0 6 -19 39 12 167 56 48 -19 12 55 165 49 50 -19 41 27 0.43
166 57 25 -19 48 36 15 14 16.5 67 75 -38 167 50 36 -19 36 30 166 3 45 -20 0 31 168 0 41 -19 34 11 165 53 28 -20 2 46 0.43
167 1 8 -20 9 54 15 14 22.3 67 74 -37 167 54 26 -19 57 47 166 7 22 -20 21 51 168 4 33 -19 55 27 165 57 3 -20 24 6 0.43
167 4 50 -20 31 14 15 14 28.2 67 73 -37 167 58 15 -20 19 5 166 10 56 -20 43 12 168 8 22 -20 16 44 166 0 36 -20 45 27 0.43
167 8 29 -20 52 34 15 14 34.0 67 73 -37 168 2 1 -20 40 23 166 14 28 -21 4 33 168 12 10 -20 38 3 166 4 6 -21 6 49 0.43
167 12 5 -21 13 54 15 14 39.9 67 72 -36 168 5 45 -21 1 42 166 17 57 -21 25 56 168 15 55 -20 59 22 166 7 34 -21 28 12 0.42
167 15 40 -21 35 16 15 14 45.7 67 71 -36 168 9 27 -21 23 3 166 21 24 -21 47 19 168 19 39 -21 20 41 166 11 0 -21 49 36 0.42
167 19 13 -21 56 39 15 14 51.6 67 70 -36 168 13 7 -21 44 24 166 24 48 -22 8 44 168 23 21 -21 42 2 166 14 23 -22 11 1 0.42
167 22 43 -22 18 3 15 14 57.4 67 69 -35 168 16 45 -22 5 46 166 28 11 -22 30 9 168 27 0 -22 3 24 166 17 43 -22 32 26 0.42
167 26 11 -22 39 28 15 15 3.3 66 68 -35 168 20 22 -22 27 9 166 31 31 -22 51 36 168 30 38 -22 24 47 166 21 2 -22 53 54 0.42
167 29 37 -23 0 54 15 15 9.2 66 67 -35 168 23 56 -22 48 34 166 34 48 -23 13 4 168 34 14 -22 46 11 166 24 18 -23 15 22 0.42
167 33 1 -23 22 21 15 15 15.0 66 67 -34 168 27 28 -23 9 59 166 38 4 -23 34 33 168 37 48 -23 7 36 166 27 31 -23 36 51 0.42
167 36 23 -23 43 50 15 15 20.9 66 66 -34 168 30 59 -23 31 26 166 41 17 -23 56 3 168 41 20 -23 29 3 166 30 43 -23 58 22 0.42
167 39 43 -24 5 20 15 15 26.7 66 65 -34 168 34 28 -23 52 54 166 44 27 -24 17 35 168 44 51 -23 50 31 166 33 52 -24 19 54 0.42
167 43 1 -24 26 51 15 15 32.6 66 64 -33 168 37 55 -24 14 24 166 47 36 -24 39 8 168 48 19 -24 12 0 166 36 58 -24 41 27 0.42
167 46 17 -24 48 24 15 15 38.4 66 63 -33 168 41 20 -24 35 54 166 50 42 -25 0 43 168 51 46 -24 33 30 166 40 3 -25 3 2 0.42
167 49 30 -25 9 58 15 15 44.3 66 62 -33 168 44 43 -24 57 27 166 53 46 -25 22 19 168 55 11 -24 55 2 166 43 5 -25 24 39 0.42
167 52 42 -25 31 34 15 15 50.2 66 62 -32 168 48 4 -25 19 1 166 56 48 -25 43 57 168 58 34 -25 16 36 166 46 5 -25 46 17 0.42
167 55 52 -25 53 12 15 15 56.0 66 61 -32 168 51 24 -25 40 36 166 59 47 -26 5 36 169 1 56 -25 38 11 166 49 2 -26 7 57 0.42
167 58 59 -26 14 51 15 16 1.9 66 60 -32 168 54 42 -26 2 13 167 2 45 -26 27 17 169 5 15 -25 59 48 166 51 58 -26 29 38 0.42
168 2 5 -26 36 32 15 16 7.7 65 59 -31 168 57 58 -26 23 52 167 5 40 -26 49 0 169 8 33 -26 21 26 166 54 51 -26 51 21 0.42
168 5 9 -26 58 14 15 16 13.6 65 58 -31 169 1 12 -26 45 33 167 8 33 -27 10 45 169 11 50 -26 43 6 166 57 41 -27 13 6 0.42
168 8 11 -27 19 59 15 16 19.4 65 58 -31 169 4 25 -27 7 15 167 11 23 -27 32 31 169 15 4 -27 4 48 167 0 30 -27 34 53 0.42
168 11 10 -27 41 45 15 16 25.3 65 57 -30 169 7 35 -27 28 59 167 14 12 -27 54 20 169 18 17 -27 26 32 167 3 16 -27 56 42 0.42
168 14 8 -28 3 34 15 16 31.1 65 56 -30 169 10 44 -27 50 46 167 16 58 -28 16 10 169 21 28 -27 48 18 167 6 0 -28 18 33 0.42
168 17 4 -28 25 24 15 16 37.0 65 55 -30 169 13 52 -28 12 34 167 19 42 -28 38 3 169 24 38 -28 10 6 167 8 41 -28 40 26 0.42
168 19 58 -28 47 17 15 16 42.9 65 55 -29 169 16 57 -28 34 24 167 22 23 -28 59 58 169 27 46 -28 31 56 167 11 21 -29 2 21 0.42
168 22 50 -29 9 11 15 16 48.7 64 54 -29 169 20 1 -28 56 17 167 25 3 -29 21 55 169 30 52 -28 53 48 167 13 58 -29 24 19 0.42
168 25 39 -29 31 8 15 16 54.6 64 53 -29 169 23 4 -29 18 11 167 27 40 -29 43 54 169 33 56 -29 15 42 167 16 33 -29 46 19 0.42
168 28 27 -29 53 8 15 17 0.4 64 52 -29 169 26 4 -29 40 8 167 30 15 -30 5 55 169 36 59 -29 37 39 167 19 5 -30 8 21 0.42
168 31 13 -30 15 9 15 17 6.3 64 52 -28 169 29 3 -30 2 8 167 32 48 -30 28 0 169 40 1 -29 59 38 167 21 35 -30 30 25 0.42
168 33 57 -30 37 14 15 17 12.1 64 51 -28 169 32 0 -30 24 10 167 35 18 -30 50 6 169 43 0 -30 21 39 167 24 3 -30 52 32 0.41
168 36 39 -30 59 20 15 17 18.0 64 50 -28 169 34 56 -30 46 14 167 37 46 -31 12 15 169 45 58 -30 43 43 167 26 29 -31 14 42 0.41
168 39 20 -31 21 29 15 17 23.9 63 50 -27 169 37 49 -31 8 21 167 40 12 -31 34 27 169 48 55 -31 5 49 167 28 52 -31 36 54 0.41
168 41 58 -31 43 41 15 17 29.7 63 49 -27 169 40 42 -31 30 30 167 42 36 -31 56 41 169 51 49 -31 27 58 167 31 12 -31 59 9 0.41
168 44 34 -32 5 56 15 17 35.6 63 48 -27 169 43 32 -31 52 42 167 44 57 -32 18 58 169 54 42 -31 50 10 167 33 31 -32 21 26 0.41
168 47 8 -32 28 14 15 17 41.4 63 48 -26 169 46 21 -32 14 57 167 47 16 -32 41 19 169 57 34 -32 12 24 167 35 47 -32 43 47 0.41
168 49 40 -32 50 34 15 17 47.3 63 47 -26 169 49 8 -32 37 15 167 49 33 -33 3 42 170 0 24 -32 34 41 167 38 1 -33 6 10 0.41
168 52 10 -33 12 57 15 17 53.1 62 46 -26 169 51 53 -32 59 36 167 51 47 -33 26 8 170 3 12 -32 57 1 167 40 12 -33 28 37 0.41
168 54 38 -33 35 24 15 17 59.0 62 46 -25 169 54 37 -33 21 59 167 53 59 -33 48 37 170 5 59 -33 19 25 167 42 21 -33 51 6 0.41
168 57 4 -33 57 53 15 18 4.8 62 45 -25 169 57 19 -33 44 26 167 56 8 -34 11 9 170 8 44 -33 41 51 167 44 27 -34 13 39 0.41
168 59 28 -34 20 26 15 18 10.7 62 45 -25 169 59 59 -34 6 56 167 58 16 -34 33 45 170 11 27 -34 4 20 167 46 31 -34 36 15 0.41
169 1 50 -34 43 2 15 18 16.6 61 44 -24 170 2 38 -34 29 29 168 0 20 -34 56 23 170 14 9 -34 26 53 167 48 32 -34 58 55 0.41
169 4 10 -35 5 42 15 18 22.4 61 43 -24 170 5 15 -34 52 6 168 2 22 -35 19 6 170 16 49 -34 49 29 167 50 31 -35 21 38 0.41
169 6 27 -35 28 25 15 18 28.3 61 43 -24 170 7 50 -35 14 46 168 4 22 -35 41 52 170 19 28 -35 12 8 167 52 27 -35 44 24 0.41
169 8 43 -35 51 11 15 18 34.1 61 42 -23 170 10 24 -35 37 29 168 6 19 -36 4 41 170 22 5 -35 34 51 167 54 20 -36 7 14 0.41
169 10 56 -36 14 2 15 18 40.0 60 42 -23 170 12 55 -36 0 17 168 8 13 -36 27 34 170 24 40 -35 57 38 167 56 11 -36 30 8 0.41
169 13 8 -36 36 56 15 18 45.8 60 41 -23 170 15 25 -36 23 7 168 10 5 -36 50 31 170 27 13 -36 20 28 167 57 59 -36 53 5 0.41
169 15 17 -36 59 53 15 18 51.7 60 41 -22 170 17 54 -36 46 2 168 11 54 -37 13 32 170 29 45 -36 43 22 167 59 44 -37 16 7 0.41
169 17 23 -37 22 55 15 18 57.6 60 40 -22 170 20 20 -37 9 1 168 13 41 -37 36 37 170 32 15 -37 6 20 168 1 27 -37 39 12 0.41
169 19 28 -37 46 1 15 19 3.4 59 40 -22 170 22 45 -37 32 3 168 15 25 -37 59 46 170 34 43 -37 29 22 168 3 7 -38 2 22 0.41
169 21 30 -38 9 11 15 19 9.3 59 39 -21 170 25 7 -37 55 10 168 17 6 -38 22 59 170 37 10 -37 52 28 168 4 44 -38 25 36 0.41
169 23 30 -38 32 25 15 19 15.1 59 39 -21 170 27 28 -38 18 20 168 18 44 -38 46 17 170 39 35 -38 15 38 168 6 17 -38 48 54 0.41
169 25 28 -38 55 44 15 19 21.0 59 38 -21 170 29 48 -38 41 35 168 20 19 -39 9 39 170 41 58 -38 38 52 168 7 48 -39 12 17 0.41
169 27 23 -39 19 7 15 19 26.8 58 38 -20 170 32 5 -39 4 55 168 21 51 -39 33 5 170 44 19 -39 2 11 168 9 16 -39 35 44 0.41
169 29 15 -39 42 34 15 19 32.7 58 37 -20 170 34 20 -39 28 19 168 23 21 -39 56 36 170 46 39 -39 25 34 168 10 41 -39 59 15 0.41
169 31 6 -40 6 6 15 19 38.5 58 37 -20 170 36 33 -39 51 48 168 24 47 -40 20 12 170 48 57 -39 49 2 168 12 3 -40 22 52 0.41
169 32 53 -40 29 43 15 19 44.4 57 36 -19 170 38 45 -40 15 21 168 26 10 -40 43 53 170 51 12 -40 12 35 168 13 21 -40 46 33 0.41
169 34 38 -40 53 25 15 19 50.3 57 36 -19 170 40 54 -40 38 59 168 27 30 -41 7 39 170 53 26 -40 36 12 168 14 36 -41 10 20 0.41
169 36 21 -41 17 12 15 19 56.1 57 35 -19 170 43 1 -41 2 42 168 28 47 -41 31 29 170 55 38 -40 59 55 168 15 47 -41 34 11 0.41
169 38 0 -41 41 5 15 20 2.0 56 35 -18 170 45 7 -41 26 31 168 30 0 -41 55 25 170 57 48 -41 23 42 168 16 55 -41 58 8 0.41
169 39 37 -42 5 2 15 20 7.8 56 34 -18 170 47 10 -41 50 24 168 31 10 -42 19 27 170 59 56 -41 47 35 168 18 0 -42 22 10 0.41
169 41 11 -42 29 5 15 20 13.7 56 34 -17 170 49 11 -42 14 23 168 32 16 -42 43 34 171 2 2 -42 11 33 168 19 1 -42 46 18 0.41
169 42 43 -42 53 14 15 20 19.5 56 34 -17 170 51 9 -42 38 27 168 33 18 -43 7 46 171 4 6 -42 35 37 168 19 58 -43 10 31 0.41
169 44 11 -43 17 28 15 20 25.4 55 33 -17 170 53 6 -43 2 37 168 34 17 -43 32 5 171 6 8 -42 59 46 168 20 51 -43 34 50 0.41
169 45 36 -43 41 48 15 20 31.3 55 33 -16 170 55 0 -43 26 53 168 35 12 -43 56 29 171 8 7 -43 24 1 168 21 40 -43 59 15 0.41
169 46 58 -44 6 14 15 20 37.1 55 32 -16 170 56 52 -43 51 15 168 36 3 -44 21 0 171 10 4 -43 48 22 168 22 25 -44 23 47 0.41
169 48 16 -44 30 47 15 20 43.0 54 32 -16 170 58 41 -44 15 42 168 36 50 -44 45 36 171 11 59 -44 12 49 168 23 5 -44 48 24 0.41
169 49 32 -44 55 25 15 20 48.8 54 32 -15 171 0 28 -44 40 16 168 37 33 -45 10 19 171 13 52 -44 37 22 168 23 42 -45 13 8 0.40
169 50 44 -45 20 10 15 20 54.7 54 31 -15 171 2 12 -45 4 57 168 38 11 -45 35 9 171 15 42 -45 2 1 168 24 14 -45 37 59 0.40
169 51 52 -45 45 2 15 21 0.5 53 31 -15 171 3 53 -45 29 44 168 38 45 -46 0 5 171 17 30 -45 26 47 168 24 41 -46 2 56 0.40
169 52 57 -46 10 0 15 21 6.4 53 31 -14 171 5 32 -45 54 37 168 39 14 -46 25 9 171 19 15 -45 51 40 168 25 3 -46 28 0 0.40
169 53 58 -46 35 6 15 21 12.2 53 30 -14 171 7 8 -46 19 38 168 39 38 -46 50 19 171 20 58 -46 16 39 168 25 20 -46 53 11 0.40
169 54 55 -47 0 19 15 21 18.1 52 30 -14 171 8 41 -46 44 46 168 39 58 -47 15 37 171 22 37 -46 41 46 168 25 32 -47 18 30 0.40
169 55 48 -47 25 39 15 21 24.0 52 30 -13 171 10 11 -47 10 1 168 40 12 -47 41 2 171 24 14 -47 7 0 168 25 39 -47 43 56 0.40
169 56 36 -47 51 7 15 21 29.8 52 29 -13 171 11 38 -47 35 23 168 40 21 -48 6 35 171 25 49 -47 32 21 168 25 40 -48 9 30 0.40
169 57 21 -48 16 42 15 21 35.7 51 29 -13 171 13 2 -48 0 53 168 40 24 -48 32 15 171 27 20 -47 57 50 168 25 35 -48 35 12 0.40
169 58 0 -48 42 25 15 21 41.5 51 29 -12 171 14 23 -48 26 31 168 40 21 -48 58 4 171 28 48 -48 23 27 168 25 24 -49 1 1 0.40
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2020 Dec 31.0
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