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Updated: 2020 DEC 31, 00:33 UT
Event Rank : 17
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jan 10 UT, the 16.5 km diameter asteroid (2655) Guangxi will occult a 10.0 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a narrow path across Western Australia from near Port Headland across central Western Australia to east of Esperance.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.37 mag to 15.37 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2473-00583-1 by 2655 Guangxi on 2021 Jan 10
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
131 30 9 -39 0 0 17 33 43.4 16 341 -22 131 38 1 131 22 16 132 39 16 130 20 43 0.62
130 46 43 -38 0 0 17 33 46.6 17 341 -23 130 54 30 130 38 56 131 55 6 129 38 1 0.63
130 3 19 -37 0 0 17 33 50.1 18 342 -24 130 11 1 129 55 36 131 11 0 128 55 17 0.63
129 19 53 -36 0 0 17 33 53.7 19 342 -25 129 27 32 129 12 15 130 26 57 128 12 29 0.63
128 36 25 -35 0 0 17 33 57.6 20 343 -26 128 43 59 128 28 50 129 42 52 127 29 35 0.63
127 52 51 -34 0 0 17 34 1.8 21 344 -28 128 0 21 127 45 20 128 58 46 126 46 33 0.63
127 9 9 -33 0 0 17 34 6.2 22 344 -29 127 16 36 127 1 41 128 14 34 126 3 21 0.63
126 25 17 -32 0 0 17 34 10.8 23 345 -30 126 32 41 126 17 52 127 30 15 125 19 56 0.64
125 41 13 -31 0 0 17 34 15.6 25 345 -31 125 48 35 125 33 52 126 45 46 124 36 16 0.64
124 56 56 -30 0 0 17 34 20.7 26 346 -32 125 4 14 124 49 36 126 1 6 123 52 20 0.64
124 12 22 -29 0 0 17 34 26.0 27 346 -33 124 19 38 124 5 5 125 16 12 123 8 6 0.64
123 27 30 -28 0 0 17 34 31.5 28 347 -35 123 34 44 123 20 15 124 31 2 122 23 31 0.64
122 42 17 -27 0 0 17 34 37.3 29 347 -36 122 49 30 122 35 4 123 45 34 121 38 33 0.64
121 56 42 -26 0 0 17 34 43.3 30 348 -37 122 3 54 121 49 31 122 59 47 120 53 10 0.64
121 10 43 -25 0 0 17 34 49.6 31 348 -38 121 17 53 121 3 32 122 13 36 120 7 21 0.64
120 24 16 -24 0 0 17 34 56.0 32 349 -39 120 31 26 120 17 7 121 27 1 119 21 2 0.64
119 37 21 -23 0 0 17 35 2.8 33 350 -41 119 44 30 119 30 12 120 40 0 118 34 11 0.64
118 49 54 -22 0 0 17 35 9.7 35 350 -42 118 57 2 118 42 45 119 52 29 117 46 47 0.64
118 1 53 -21 0 0 17 35 16.9 36 351 -43 118 9 1 117 54 44 119 4 27 116 58 47 0.64
117 13 16 -20 0 0 17 35 24.4 37 352 -44 117 20 24 117 6 7 118 15 50 116 10 8 0.64
116 24 0 -19 0 0 17 35 32.1 38 352 -45 116 31 9 116 16 50 117 26 38 115 20 47 0.64
115 34 2 -18 0 0 17 35 40.0 39 353 -47 115 41 11 115 26 52 116 36 46 114 30 42 0.64
114 43 19 -17 0 0 17 35 48.2 40 354 -48 114 50 30 114 36 8 115 46 12 113 39 50 0.64
113 51 50 -16 0 0 17 35 56.7 41 355 -49 113 59 1 113 44 37 114 54 53 112 48 7 0.64
112 59 29 -15 0 0 17 36 5.4 42 355 -50 113 6 42 112 52 15 114 2 46 111 55 31 0.64
112 6 14 -14 0 0 17 36 14.3 43 356 -52 112 13 29 111 58 58 113 9 47 111 1 58 0.64
111 12 1 -13 0 0 17 36 23.5 44 357 -53 111 19 19 111 4 43 112 15 54 110 7 24 0.64
110 16 47 -12 0 0 17 36 33.0 45 358 -54 110 24 8 110 9 26 111 21 3 109 11 45 0.64
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2020 Dec 31.0
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