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Updated: 2020 Oct 28, 20:16 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Dec 07 UT, the 88 km diameter asteroid (62) Erato will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a path across Tasman Sea.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.49 mag to 13.59 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-436-120755 by 62 Erato on 2020 Dec 7
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
147 33 59 -45 30 27 11 51 53.8 34 306 -16 146 48 24 -45 3 4 148 21 15 -45 57 58 146 31 39 -44 52 49 148 39 28 -46 8 22 1.48
147 50 43 -45 19 48 11 51 56.4 34 306 -16 147 5 5 -44 52 31 148 38 1 -45 47 14 146 48 19 -44 42 17 148 56 16 -45 57 36 1.48
148 7 28 -45 9 11 11 51 59.0 33 305 -16 147 21 47 -44 41 59 148 54 50 -45 36 32 147 5 0 -44 31 48 149 13 6 -45 46 51 1.48
148 24 15 -44 58 36 11 52 1.5 33 305 -17 147 38 31 -44 31 29 149 11 40 -45 25 51 147 21 43 -44 21 19 149 29 57 -45 36 8 1.48
148 41 4 -44 48 1 11 52 4.1 33 304 -17 147 55 16 -44 21 0 149 28 32 -45 15 11 147 38 27 -44 10 52 149 46 51 -45 25 27 1.48
148 57 54 -44 37 28 11 52 6.7 33 304 -17 148 12 3 -44 10 32 149 45 26 -45 4 33 147 55 12 -44 0 26 150 3 46 -45 14 47 1.48
149 14 47 -44 26 57 11 52 9.3 33 304 -17 148 28 51 -44 0 5 150 2 22 -44 53 56 148 11 59 -43 50 1 150 20 44 -45 4 8 1.48
149 31 41 -44 16 26 11 52 11.8 33 303 -18 148 45 42 -43 49 40 150 19 21 -44 43 21 148 28 48 -43 39 38 150 37 44 -44 53 30 1.48
149 48 37 -44 5 57 11 52 14.4 33 303 -18 149 2 34 -43 39 16 150 36 21 -44 32 47 148 45 39 -43 29 15 150 54 46 -44 42 54 1.48
150 5 36 -43 55 29 11 52 17.0 33 303 -18 149 19 28 -43 28 53 150 53 24 -44 22 14 149 2 32 -43 18 54 151 11 51 -44 32 19 1.48
150 22 37 -43 45 3 11 52 19.6 33 302 -18 149 36 25 -43 18 31 151 10 30 -44 11 42 149 19 27 -43 8 34 151 28 58 -44 21 46 1.48
150 39 41 -43 34 37 11 52 22.1 33 302 -19 149 53 24 -43 8 10 151 27 38 -44 1 11 149 36 24 -42 58 15 151 46 8 -44 11 13 1.48
150 56 47 -43 24 13 11 52 24.7 33 301 -19 150 10 25 -42 57 51 151 44 50 -43 50 42 149 53 23 -42 47 58 152 3 22 -44 0 42 1.48
151 13 56 -43 13 50 11 52 27.3 33 301 -19 150 27 29 -42 47 32 152 2 4 -43 40 14 150 10 25 -42 37 41 152 20 38 -43 50 12 1.48
151 31 7 -43 3 28 11 52 29.9 32 301 -19 150 44 35 -42 37 15 152 19 21 -43 29 47 150 27 30 -42 27 25 152 37 57 -43 39 43 1.48
151 48 22 -42 53 7 11 52 32.4 32 300 -20 151 1 44 -42 26 59 152 36 41 -43 19 22 150 44 37 -42 17 11 152 55 19 -43 29 16 1.48
152 5 39 -42 42 47 11 52 35.0 32 300 -20 151 18 56 -42 16 44 152 54 5 -43 8 57 151 1 47 -42 6 58 153 12 45 -43 18 49 1.48
152 23 0 -42 32 28 11 52 37.6 32 300 -20 151 36 11 -42 6 30 153 11 32 -42 58 34 151 18 59 -41 56 45 153 30 15 -43 8 24 1.48
152 40 24 -42 22 11 11 52 40.2 32 299 -20 151 53 29 -41 56 17 153 29 2 -42 48 11 151 36 15 -41 46 34 153 47 48 -42 58 0 1.48
152 57 52 -42 11 54 11 52 42.7 32 299 -21 152 10 50 -41 46 5 153 46 37 -42 37 50 151 53 34 -41 36 23 154 5 25 -42 47 37 1.48
170 51 49 -33 32 16 11 54 56.6 21 281 -33 169 47 37 -33 10 14 171 59 41 -33 54 14 169 24 20 -33 1 56 172 26 17 -34 2 28 1.50
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