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Updated: 2020 SEP 14, 03:27 UT
Event Rank : 95
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Nov 05 UT, the 37 km diameter asteroid (556) Phyllis will occult a 9.1 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a narrow path across Western Australia from Exmouth to near Kalgoorlie.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.09 mag to 13.16 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 20.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1888-1607-1 by 556 Phyllis on 2020 Nov 5
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
137 24 3 -43 0 0 20 26 40.6 15 332 9 137 1 6 137 46 58 136 40 53 138 7 5 0.76
136 15 33 -42 0 0 20 26 9.6 16 333 8 135 52 53 136 38 10 135 32 55 136 58 2 0.77
135 7 34 -41 0 0 20 25 35.8 17 334 7 134 45 10 135 29 56 134 25 26 135 49 33 0.77
134 0 1 -40 0 0 20 24 59.0 19 335 6 133 37 51 134 22 8 133 18 18 134 41 33 0.77
132 52 47 -39 0 0 20 24 19.2 20 336 5 132 30 49 133 14 42 132 11 27 133 33 56 0.78
131 45 47 -38 0 0 20 23 36.3 21 337 3 131 23 59 132 7 31 131 4 46 132 26 35 0.78
130 38 54 -37 0 0 20 22 50.2 23 338 2 130 17 15 131 0 29 129 58 10 131 19 25 0.79
129 32 3 -36 0 0 20 22 1.0 24 339 1 129 10 31 129 53 31 128 51 31 130 12 20 0.79
128 25 6 -35 0 0 20 21 8.4 25 340 -1 128 3 40 128 46 29 127 44 44 129 5 13 0.80
127 17 58 -34 0 0 20 20 12.4 27 341 -2 126 56 35 127 39 17 126 37 42 127 57 57 0.80
126 10 31 -33 0 0 20 19 13.0 28 342 -3 125 49 9 126 31 47 125 30 17 126 50 26 0.81
125 2 36 -32 0 0 20 18 9.9 29 344 -5 124 41 14 125 23 53 124 22 21 125 42 32 0.81
123 54 7 -31 0 0 20 17 3.1 30 345 -6 123 32 41 124 15 26 123 13 46 124 34 6 0.82
122 44 53 -30 0 0 20 15 52.4 32 346 -8 122 23 22 123 6 17 122 4 22 123 25 0 0.83
121 34 45 -29 0 0 20 14 37.6 33 348 -9 121 13 6 121 56 16 120 53 59 122 15 5 0.83
120 23 31 -28 0 0 20 13 18.6 34 349 -11 120 1 42 120 45 12 119 42 24 121 4 10 0.84
119 10 59 -27 0 0 20 11 55.2 35 351 -13 118 48 56 119 32 53 118 29 26 119 52 2 0.85
117 56 54 -26 0 0 20 10 27.1 37 352 -14 117 34 33 118 19 5 117 14 47 118 38 27 0.86
116 40 59 -25 0 0 20 8 53.9 38 354 -16 116 18 17 117 3 31 115 58 10 117 23 11 0.87
115 22 55 -24 0 0 20 7 15.5 39 356 -18 114 59 46 115 45 53 114 39 15 116 5 54 0.88
114 2 18 -23 0 0 20 5 31.3 40 358 -20 113 38 36 114 25 47 113 17 35 114 46 15 0.89
112 38 40 -22 0 0 20 3 40.8 41 360 -22 112 14 18 113 2 47 111 52 39 113 23 48 0.90
111 11 25 -21 0 0 20 1 43.4 42 2 -24 110 46 13 111 36 20 110 23 48 111 58 0 0.91
Uncertainty in time = +/- 18 secs
Prediction of 2020 Sep 14.0
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[Observing Details]
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