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Updated: 2020 SEP 14, 03:21 UT
Event Rank : 65
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Nov 03 UT, the 44.9 km diameter asteroid (519) Sylvania will occult a 7.6 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a narrow path across Australia across western Queensland, possibly including Mt Isa and eastern South Australia to Port Augusta and Adelaide.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.06 mag to 13.68 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 31816 by 519 Sylvania on 2020 Nov 3
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
135 9 41 -41 0 0 16 58 37.3 13 23 -26 135 28 22 134 50 57 136 3 6 134 15 48 -0.49
135 32 20 -40 0 0 16 58 42.6 14 23 -26 135 50 40 135 13 57 136 24 46 134 39 27 -0.49
135 53 30 -39 0 0 16 58 48.2 15 23 -27 136 11 31 135 35 26 136 45 1 135 1 33 -0.49
136 13 15 -38 0 0 16 58 54.3 16 23 -27 136 30 58 135 55 29 137 3 55 135 22 11 -0.49
136 31 41 -37 0 0 16 59 0.7 17 23 -28 136 49 7 136 14 12 137 21 32 135 41 26 -0.49
136 48 51 -36 0 0 16 59 7.5 18 22 -29 137 6 1 136 31 39 137 37 56 135 59 24 -0.50
137 4 50 -35 0 0 16 59 14.6 19 22 -29 137 21 44 136 47 53 137 53 12 136 16 6 -0.50
137 19 41 -34 0 0 16 59 22.0 20 22 -30 137 36 21 137 2 58 138 7 21 136 31 39 -0.50
137 33 27 -33 0 0 16 59 29.9 21 22 -30 137 49 53 137 16 58 138 20 29 136 46 4 -0.50
137 46 11 -32 0 0 16 59 38.0 22 22 -31 138 2 25 137 29 55 138 32 37 136 59 26 -0.50
137 57 56 -31 0 0 16 59 46.5 23 22 -32 138 13 58 137 41 52 138 43 48 137 11 46 -0.50
138 8 45 -30 0 0 16 59 55.3 24 22 -32 138 24 35 137 52 52 138 54 4 137 23 8 -0.50
138 18 40 -29 0 0 17 0 4.5 25 22 -33 138 34 19 138 2 58 139 3 28 137 33 34 -0.50
138 27 43 -28 0 0 17 0 13.9 26 22 -33 138 43 12 138 12 11 139 12 2 137 43 6 -0.50
138 35 55 -27 0 0 17 0 23.7 27 22 -34 138 51 15 138 20 34 139 19 48 137 51 47 -0.50
138 43 20 -26 0 0 17 0 33.8 28 22 -35 138 58 31 138 28 7 139 26 47 137 59 38 -0.50
138 49 59 -25 0 0 17 0 44.3 29 22 -35 139 5 1 138 34 54 139 33 1 138 6 41 -0.50
138 55 52 -24 0 0 17 0 55.0 30 22 -36 139 10 46 138 40 56 139 38 31 138 12 57 -0.50
139 1 2 -23 0 0 17 1 6.0 31 22 -36 139 15 49 138 46 14 139 43 20 138 18 29 -0.50
139 5 30 -22 0 0 17 1 17.4 32 22 -37 139 20 10 138 50 49 139 47 28 138 23 18 -0.50
139 9 17 -21 0 0 17 1 29.0 33 23 -38 139 23 50 138 54 43 139 50 56 138 27 24 -0.50
139 12 25 -20 0 0 17 1 40.9 34 23 -38 139 26 52 138 57 56 139 53 45 138 30 50 -0.50
139 14 54 -19 0 0 17 1 53.1 35 23 -39 139 29 15 139 0 31 139 55 58 138 33 36 -0.50
139 16 45 -18 0 0 17 2 5.6 36 23 -39 139 31 0 139 2 28 139 57 33 138 35 43 -0.50
139 17 59 -17 0 0 17 2 18.4 37 23 -40 139 32 9 139 3 47 139 58 33 138 37 12 -0.50
139 18 37 -16 0 0 17 2 31.4 38 24 -40 139 32 43 139 4 30 139 58 58 138 38 4 -0.50
139 18 40 -15 0 0 17 2 44.7 39 24 -41 139 32 42 139 4 38 139 58 49 138 38 19 -0.50
139 18 9 -14 0 0 17 2 58.3 40 24 -41 139 32 6 139 4 10 139 58 6 138 37 59 0.50
139 17 4 -13 0 0 17 3 12.2 41 24 -42 139 30 57 139 3 8 139 56 50 138 37 4 0.50
139 15 25 -12 0 0 17 3 26.3 42 25 -43 139 29 15 139 1 33 139 55 2 138 35 35 0.50
139 13 13 -11 0 0 17 3 40.6 43 25 -43 139 27 0 138 59 24 139 52 41 138 33 32 0.50
139 10 29 -10 0 0 17 3 55.2 43 26 -44 139 24 13 138 56 43 139 49 49 138 30 56 0.50
139 7 13 - 9 0 0 17 4 10.1 44 26 -44 139 20 55 138 53 29 139 46 26 138 27 46 0.49
139 3 25 - 8 0 0 17 4 25.2 45 26 -45 139 17 5 138 49 43 139 42 32 138 24 4 0.49
138 59 5 - 7 0 0 17 4 40.5 46 27 -45 139 12 44 138 45 25 139 38 8 138 19 50 0.49
138 54 14 - 6 0 0 17 4 56.0 47 27 -46 139 7 51 138 40 36 139 33 13 138 15 3 0.49
138 48 53 - 5 0 0 17 5 11.8 48 28 -46 139 2 29 138 35 15 139 27 48 138 9 45 0.49
138 43 0 - 4 0 0 17 5 27.8 49 28 -47 138 56 35 138 29 24 139 21 53 138 3 55 0.49
138 36 37 - 3 0 0 17 5 44.0 50 29 -47 138 50 11 138 23 1 139 15 28 137 57 33 0.49
138 29 43 - 2 0 0 17 6 0.5 50 30 -48 138 43 17 138 16 7 139 8 33 137 50 40 0.49
138 22 18 - 1 0 0 17 6 17.1 51 30 -48 138 35 52 138 8 42 139 1 8 137 43 15 0.49
138 14 22 0 0 0 17 6 33.9 52 31 -49 138 27 57 138 0 46 138 53 13 137 35 18 0.48
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2020 Sep 14.0
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