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Updated: 2020 Aug 29, 02:49 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Oct 31 UT, the 61 km diameter asteroid (792) Metcalfia will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across Northern Territory, western Queensland and New South Wales, passing over Mount Isa, Dubbo, Goulburn and Ulladulla.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.10 mag to 14.32 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 15.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-575-030118 by 792 Metcalfia on 2020 Oct 31
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
152 51 46 -40 0 0 16 45 20.1 24 14 -20 152 14 7 153 29 1 151 48 36 153 53 51 1.25
152 21 56 -39 0 0 16 44 59.0 25 14 -21 151 44 31 152 58 56 151 19 10 153 23 37 1.25
151 50 56 -38 0 0 16 44 37.0 26 15 -22 151 13 44 152 27 45 150 48 30 152 52 18 1.26
151 18 47 -37 0 0 16 44 14.2 26 16 -23 150 41 44 151 55 27 150 16 36 152 19 52 1.26
150 45 26 -36 0 0 16 43 50.4 27 17 -24 150 8 30 151 21 59 149 43 26 151 46 19 1.27
150 10 52 -35 0 0 16 43 25.7 28 18 -25 149 33 59 150 47 19 149 8 58 151 11 37 1.27
149 35 1 -34 0 0 16 43 0.0 29 18 -26 148 58 10 150 11 27 148 33 9 150 35 42 1.27
148 57 51 -33 0 0 16 42 33.4 30 19 -27 148 20 58 149 34 17 147 55 56 149 58 33 1.28
148 19 19 -32 0 0 16 42 5.8 30 20 -28 147 42 22 148 55 49 147 17 16 149 20 6 1.28
147 39 20 -31 0 0 16 41 37.2 31 21 -29 147 2 16 148 15 57 146 37 4 148 40 18 1.29
146 57 51 -30 0 0 16 41 7.6 32 22 -30 146 20 36 147 34 37 145 55 16 147 59 5 1.29
146 14 46 -29 0 0 16 40 37.0 32 23 -32 145 37 16 146 51 45 145 11 46 147 16 21 1.30
145 29 59 -28 0 0 16 40 5.2 33 24 -33 144 52 11 146 7 15 144 26 28 146 32 0 1.31
144 43 23 -27 0 0 16 39 32.4 33 26 -34 144 5 12 145 20 59 143 39 13 145 45 58 1.31
143 54 50 -26 0 0 16 38 58.4 34 27 -35 143 16 12 144 32 52 142 49 53 144 58 6 1.32
143 4 11 -25 0 0 16 38 23.3 34 28 -37 142 25 1 143 42 43 141 58 18 144 8 16 1.33
142 11 15 -24 0 0 16 37 46.9 35 30 -38 141 31 26 142 50 22 141 4 16 143 16 19 1.33
141 15 49 -23 0 0 16 37 9.1 35 31 -40 140 35 15 141 55 39 140 7 33 142 22 2 1.34
140 17 39 -22 0 0 16 36 30.1 35 32 -41 139 36 11 140 58 19 139 7 50 141 25 13 1.35
139 16 26 -21 0 0 16 35 49.5 36 34 -43 138 33 55 139 58 4 138 4 48 140 25 36 1.36
138 11 49 -20 0 0 16 35 7.4 36 35 -44 137 28 3 138 54 36 136 58 2 139 22 51 1.36
137 3 20 -19 0 0 16 34 23.6 36 37 -46 136 18 5 137 47 30 135 46 59 138 16 36 1.37
135 50 28 -18 0 0 16 33 38.0 36 39 -47 135 3 24 136 36 15 134 31 0 137 6 23 1.38
134 32 28 -17 0 0 16 32 50.2 36 40 -49 133 43 13 135 20 15 133 9 12 135 51 36 1.39
133 8 25 -16 0 0 16 32 0.2 36 42 -51 132 16 27 133 58 38 131 40 25 134 31 30 1.40
131 37 4 -15 0 0 16 31 7.4 35 44 -53 130 41 38 132 30 20 130 3 1 133 5 4 1.40
129 56 37 -14 0 0 16 30 11.4 35 46 -55 128 56 38 130 53 50 128 14 34 131 30 57 1.41
128 4 24 -13 0 0 16 29 11.4 34 48 -57 126 58 9 129 6 56 126 11 11 129 47 12 1.42
125 56 4 -12 0 0 16 28 6.1 33 50 -59 124 40 30 127 6 12 123 45 55 127 50 50 1.43
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
124 0 0 -11 13 15 16 27 10.1 31 51 -60 -11 44 15 -10 42 40 -12 5 20 -10 22 20 1.43
123 0 0 -10 51 47 16 26 42.2 31 52 -61 -11 22 28 -10 21 30 -11 43 19 -10 1 21 1.42
122 0 0 -10 32 4 16 26 15.2 30 53 -62 -11 2 28 -10 2 4 -11 23 8 - 9 42 7 1.42
121 0 0 -10 14 7 16 25 49.0 29 54 -63 -10 44 15 - 9 44 21 -11 4 43 - 9 24 34 1.42
120 0 0 - 9 57 51 16 25 23.5 29 54 -64 -10 27 45 - 9 28 20 -10 48 3 - 9 8 41 1.42
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