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Updated: 2020 AUG 15, 19:23 UT
Event Rank : 96
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Sep 30 UT, the 92.2 km diameter asteroid (373) Melusina will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Perseus for observers along a path across Western Australia from Broome to Esperence.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.01 mag to 13.83 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2346-00765-1 by 373 Melusina on 2020 Sep 30
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
122 53 3 -38 0 0 16 43 22.9 15 25 -46 123 46 2 121 59 12 124 28 19 121 14 55 -1.31
122 56 45 -37 0 0 16 43 28.9 16 25 -47 123 48 58 122 3 41 124 30 40 121 20 4 -1.32
122 58 32 -36 0 0 16 43 35.1 17 25 -48 123 50 4 122 6 12 124 31 13 121 23 11 -1.32
122 58 30 -35 0 0 16 43 41.8 18 25 -49 123 49 24 122 6 49 124 30 3 121 24 21 1.32
122 56 43 -34 0 0 16 43 48.7 19 25 -50 123 47 1 122 5 38 124 27 13 121 23 39 1.32
122 53 14 -33 0 0 16 43 56.0 20 25 -51 123 43 1 122 2 41 124 22 48 121 21 10 1.33
122 48 6 -32 0 0 16 44 3.6 20 25 -52 123 37 24 121 58 2 124 16 48 121 16 55 1.33
122 41 22 -31 0 0 16 44 11.6 21 26 -53 123 30 14 121 51 45 124 9 18 121 11 0 1.33
122 33 4 -30 0 0 16 44 19.9 22 26 -53 123 21 33 121 43 51 124 0 19 121 3 25 1.33
122 23 14 -29 0 0 16 44 28.5 23 26 -54 123 11 24 121 34 22 123 49 53 120 54 14 1.33
122 11 55 -28 0 0 16 44 37.5 24 27 -55 122 59 46 121 23 21 123 38 2 120 43 28 1.33
121 59 7 -27 0 0 16 44 46.7 25 27 -56 122 46 43 121 10 48 123 24 46 120 31 8 1.33
121 44 51 -26 0 0 16 44 56.3 25 27 -57 122 32 14 120 56 45 123 10 6 120 17 16 1.33
121 29 8 -25 0 0 16 45 6.3 26 28 -58 122 16 20 120 41 13 122 54 4 120 1 52 1.33
121 11 58 -24 0 0 16 45 16.5 27 28 -59 121 59 2 120 24 11 122 36 40 119 44 57 1.33
120 53 22 -23 0 0 16 45 27.1 28 29 -60 121 40 21 120 5 41 122 17 53 119 26 31 1.33
120 33 20 -22 0 0 16 45 38.1 29 29 -61 121 20 14 119 45 41 121 57 44 119 6 33 1.33
120 11 50 -21 0 0 16 45 49.3 29 30 -62 120 58 44 119 24 12 121 36 12 118 45 4 1.33
119 48 52 -20 0 0 16 46 0.9 30 30 -63 120 35 48 119 1 13 121 13 17 118 22 3 1.32
119 24 26 -19 0 0 16 46 12.8 31 31 -64 120 11 25 118 36 42 120 48 57 117 57 28 1.32
118 58 30 -18 0 0 16 46 25.1 31 31 -65 119 45 36 118 10 39 120 23 12 117 31 18 1.32
118 31 2 -17 0 0 16 46 37.6 32 32 -66 119 18 17 117 43 1 119 56 0 117 3 31 1.32
118 2 0 -16 0 0 16 46 50.6 33 33 -67 118 49 26 117 13 46 119 27 18 116 34 5 1.32
117 31 22 -15 0 0 16 47 3.9 33 33 -68 118 19 3 116 42 52 118 57 6 116 2 57 1.32
116 59 5 -14 0 0 16 47 17.5 34 34 -70 117 47 4 116 10 16 118 25 20 115 30 4 1.32
116 25 6 -13 0 0 16 47 31.5 34 35 -71 117 13 26 115 35 54 117 51 58 114 55 22 1.31
115 49 20 -12 0 0 16 47 45.8 35 36 -72 116 38 5 114 59 42 117 16 56 114 18 47 1.31
115 11 45 -11 0 0 16 48 0.5 35 36 -73 116 0 58 114 21 36 116 40 10 113 40 15 1.31
114 32 14 -10 0 0 16 48 15.6 36 37 -74 115 21 59 113 41 30 116 1 36 112 59 38 1.31
113 50 42 - 9 0 0 16 48 31.0 36 38 -75 114 41 4 112 59 18 115 21 9 112 16 52 1.31
113 7 2 - 8 0 0 16 48 46.9 36 39 -76 113 58 6 112 14 53 114 38 43 111 31 48 1.31
112 21 7 - 7 0 0 16 49 3.2 37 40 -78 113 12 59 111 28 7 113 54 11 110 44 17 1.30
111 32 49 - 6 0 0 16 49 19.9 37 41 -79 112 25 34 110 38 50 113 7 27 109 54 10 1.30
110 41 56 - 5 0 0 16 49 37.0 37 42 -80 111 35 42 109 46 52 112 18 20 109 1 13 1.30
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2020 Aug 15.0
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