|
|
Updated: 2020 AUG 15, 19:08 UT
Event Rank : 98
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Sep 14 UT, the 92.2 km diameter asteroid (373) Melusina will occult a 6.9 mag star in the constellation Aries for observers along a path across Australia from near Adelaide across eastern South Australia and western Queensland to Karumba and Weipa.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.14 mag to 14.08 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 16203 by 373 Melusina on 2020 Sep 14
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
136 19 14 -42 0 0 18 10 44.4 17 8 -31 136 53 5 135 45 21 137 16 14 135 22 10 0.04
136 32 9 -41 0 0 18 10 48.2 18 8 -31 137 5 29 135 58 48 137 28 16 135 35 58 0.04
136 44 43 -40 0 0 18 10 52.3 19 8 -31 137 17 33 136 11 52 137 39 59 135 49 23 0.04
136 56 57 -39 0 0 18 10 56.5 20 8 -32 137 29 18 136 24 35 137 51 25 136 2 26 0.04
137 8 53 -38 0 0 18 11 0.9 21 8 -32 137 40 46 136 36 58 138 2 35 136 15 7 0.04
137 20 30 -37 0 0 18 11 5.6 22 8 -32 137 51 58 136 49 1 138 13 29 136 27 29 0.04
137 31 52 -36 0 0 18 11 10.4 23 8 -32 138 2 55 137 0 47 138 24 9 136 39 31 0.04
137 42 57 -35 0 0 18 11 15.5 24 7 -33 138 13 37 137 12 17 138 34 36 136 51 17 0.04
137 53 49 -34 0 0 18 11 20.7 25 7 -33 138 24 6 137 23 30 138 44 50 137 2 45 0.04
138 4 26 -33 0 0 18 11 26.2 26 7 -33 138 34 23 137 34 29 138 54 52 137 13 59 0.04
138 14 51 -32 0 0 18 11 31.8 27 7 -33 138 44 27 137 45 14 139 4 43 137 24 57 0.04
138 25 3 -31 0 0 18 11 37.7 28 7 -33 138 54 21 137 55 45 139 14 23 137 35 42 0.04
138 35 5 -30 0 0 18 11 43.7 29 7 -33 139 4 4 138 6 5 139 23 54 137 46 14 0.04
138 44 55 -29 0 0 18 11 50.0 30 7 -34 139 13 37 138 16 13 139 33 15 137 56 34 0.04
138 54 36 -28 0 0 18 11 56.4 31 7 -34 139 23 1 138 26 10 139 42 28 138 6 42 0.04
139 4 7 -27 0 0 18 12 3.0 32 6 -34 139 32 17 138 35 56 139 51 33 138 16 40 0.04
139 13 29 -26 0 0 18 12 9.8 33 6 -34 139 41 25 138 45 34 140 0 31 138 26 27 0.04
139 22 44 -25 0 0 18 12 16.8 34 6 -34 139 50 25 138 55 2 140 9 22 138 36 5 0.04
139 31 51 -24 0 0 18 12 24.0 35 6 -34 139 59 19 139 4 22 140 18 7 138 45 34 0.04
139 40 51 -23 0 0 18 12 31.4 36 6 -34 140 8 6 139 13 35 140 26 45 138 54 55 0.04
139 49 44 -22 0 0 18 12 38.9 37 6 -34 140 16 48 139 22 40 140 35 19 139 4 9 0.04
139 58 31 -21 0 0 18 12 46.6 38 6 -34 140 25 24 139 31 38 140 43 48 139 13 15 0.05
140 7 13 -20 0 0 18 12 54.5 39 6 -34 140 33 56 139 40 31 140 52 12 139 22 15 0.05
140 15 50 -19 0 0 18 13 2.5 40 5 -34 140 42 23 139 49 18 141 0 32 139 31 8 0.05
140 24 23 -18 0 0 18 13 10.8 41 5 -34 140 50 46 139 57 59 141 8 49 139 39 56 0.05
140 32 51 -17 0 0 18 13 19.2 42 5 -34 140 59 5 140 6 36 141 17 3 139 48 39 0.05
140 41 16 -16 0 0 18 13 27.7 43 5 -34 141 7 22 140 15 9 141 25 14 139 57 18 0.05
140 49 37 -15 0 0 18 13 36.4 44 5 -34 141 15 36 140 23 38 141 33 23 140 5 52 0.05
140 57 56 -14 0 0 18 13 45.3 45 5 -34 141 23 48 140 32 4 141 41 30 140 14 22 0.05
141 6 12 -13 0 0 18 13 54.3 46 5 -34 141 31 58 140 40 27 141 49 36 140 22 50 0.05
141 14 27 -12 0 0 18 14 3.5 47 5 -34 141 40 7 140 48 48 141 57 41 140 31 14 0.05
141 22 40 -11 0 0 18 14 12.9 48 4 -34 141 48 15 140 57 6 142 5 45 140 39 37 0.05
141 30 53 -10 0 0 18 14 22.3 49 4 -34 141 56 22 141 5 23 142 13 49 140 47 57 0.05
141 39 4 - 9 0 0 18 14 32.0 51 4 -34 142 4 30 141 13 39 142 21 53 140 56 16 0.05
141 47 16 - 8 0 0 18 14 41.7 52 4 -33 142 12 37 141 21 54 142 29 58 141 4 34 0.05
141 55 27 - 7 0 0 18 14 51.7 53 4 -33 142 20 46 141 30 9 142 38 4 141 12 51 0.05
142 3 40 - 6 0 0 18 15 1.7 54 4 -33 142 28 55 141 38 25 142 46 12 141 21 8 0.05
142 11 53 - 5 0 0 18 15 11.9 55 3 -33 142 37 6 141 46 40 142 54 22 141 29 26 0.05
142 20 8 - 4 0 0 18 15 22.2 56 3 -33 142 45 19 141 54 57 143 2 34 141 37 44 0.05
142 28 25 - 3 0 0 18 15 32.6 57 3 -33 142 53 35 142 3 16 143 10 48 141 46 3 0.05
142 36 44 - 2 0 0 18 15 43.2 58 3 -32 143 1 53 142 11 36 143 19 6 141 54 24 0.06
142 45 7 - 1 0 0 18 15 53.9 59 3 -32 143 10 15 142 19 59 143 27 28 142 2 47 0.06
142 53 32 0 0 0 18 16 4.7 60 2 -32 143 18 41 142 28 24 143 35 53 142 11 13 0.06
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2020 Aug 15.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]