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Updated: 2020 AUG 15, 19:01 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Sep 05 UT, the 168 km diameter asteroid (747) Winchester will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a path across the North Island of New Zealand, crossing the north-eastern corner at Hicks Bay, possibly extending to Opotki and Gisborne .
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.32 mag to 10.89 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 17.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 381-002455 by 747 Winchester on 2020 Sep 5
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
175 32 55 -28 8 56 13 49 54.6 63 64 -59 176 27 6 -27 52 15 174 38 3 -28 25 26 176 48 28 -27 45 34 174 16 2 -28 31 57 0.51
175 51 4 -29 10 47 13 50 6.9 62 62 -58 176 45 45 -28 53 57 174 55 42 -29 27 26 177 7 19 -28 47 12 174 33 29 -29 34 0 0.51
175 57 5 -29 31 27 13 50 11.0 62 61 -58 176 51 56 -29 14 34 175 1 32 -29 48 9 177 13 33 -29 7 48 174 39 14 -29 54 44 0.51
176 9 1 -30 12 52 13 50 19.2 62 60 -57 177 4 14 -29 55 52 175 13 6 -30 29 40 177 25 59 -29 49 4 174 50 40 -30 36 18 0.51
176 14 58 -30 33 37 13 50 23.3 62 59 -57 177 10 21 -30 16 34 175 18 51 -30 50 29 177 32 11 -30 9 44 174 56 20 -30 57 8 0.51
176 20 53 -30 54 24 13 50 27.4 62 58 -57 177 16 27 -30 37 18 175 24 35 -31 11 19 177 38 21 -30 30 27 175 1 59 -31 17 59 0.51
176 26 46 -31 15 13 13 50 31.5 62 58 -56 177 22 32 -30 58 3 175 30 16 -31 32 11 177 44 31 -30 51 11 175 7 36 -31 38 52 0.51
176 32 39 -31 36 3 13 50 35.5 62 57 -56 177 28 36 -31 18 51 175 35 57 -31 53 5 177 50 39 -31 11 57 175 13 11 -31 59 48 0.51
176 38 30 -31 56 56 13 50 39.6 62 56 -56 177 34 39 -31 39 40 175 41 36 -32 14 1 177 56 47 -31 32 45 175 18 45 -32 20 45 0.51
176 44 20 -32 17 51 13 50 43.7 62 55 -55 177 40 42 -32 0 31 175 47 13 -32 34 59 178 2 54 -31 53 35 175 24 18 -32 41 44 0.50
176 50 9 -32 38 48 13 50 47.8 61 55 -55 177 46 43 -32 21 25 175 52 49 -32 55 59 178 9 0 -32 14 27 175 29 48 -33 2 46 0.50
176 55 57 -32 59 47 13 50 51.9 61 54 -55 177 52 43 -32 42 20 175 58 24 -33 17 2 178 15 5 -32 35 21 175 35 18 -33 23 50 0.50
177 1 43 -33 20 48 13 50 56.0 61 53 -54 177 58 43 -33 3 18 176 3 57 -33 38 7 178 21 10 -32 56 17 175 40 45 -33 44 56 0.50
177 7 29 -33 41 51 13 51 0.1 61 53 -54 178 4 41 -33 24 17 176 9 29 -33 59 14 178 27 14 -33 17 15 175 46 12 -34 6 5 0.50
177 13 13 -34 2 57 13 51 4.2 61 52 -54 178 10 39 -33 45 20 176 14 59 -34 20 23 178 33 17 -33 38 16 175 51 36 -34 27 16 0.50
177 18 57 -34 24 5 13 51 8.3 61 51 -54 178 16 37 -34 6 24 176 20 29 -34 41 35 178 39 19 -33 59 19 175 57 0 -34 48 29 0.50
177 24 39 -34 45 16 13 51 12.4 61 51 -53 178 22 33 -34 27 31 176 25 56 -35 2 50 178 45 21 -34 20 24 176 2 22 -35 9 45 0.50
177 30 21 -35 6 29 13 51 16.5 60 50 -53 178 28 29 -34 48 40 176 31 23 -35 24 7 178 51 23 -34 41 32 176 7 42 -35 31 4 0.50
177 36 1 -35 27 45 13 51 20.6 60 49 -53 178 34 24 -35 9 52 176 36 48 -35 45 27 178 57 23 -35 2 43 176 13 1 -35 52 25 0.50
177 41 41 -35 49 4 13 51 24.7 60 49 -52 178 40 19 -35 31 7 176 42 12 -36 6 49 179 3 24 -35 23 56 176 18 19 -36 13 50 0.50
177 47 20 -36 10 25 13 51 28.8 60 48 -52 178 46 13 -35 52 24 176 47 35 -36 28 15 179 9 24 -35 45 12 176 23 35 -36 35 17 0.50
177 52 57 -36 31 50 13 51 32.9 60 48 -52 178 52 6 -36 13 45 176 52 57 -36 49 43 179 15 23 -36 6 30 176 28 50 -36 56 47 0.50
177 58 34 -36 53 17 13 51 37.0 60 47 -51 178 57 59 -36 35 8 176 58 17 -37 11 14 179 21 22 -36 27 51 176 34 4 -37 18 19 0.50
178 4 11 -37 14 47 13 51 41.1 59 46 -51 179 3 52 -36 56 33 177 3 36 -37 32 49 179 27 21 -36 49 15 176 39 16 -37 39 56 0.50
178 9 46 -37 36 20 13 51 45.2 59 46 -51 179 9 43 -37 18 2 177 8 54 -37 54 26 179 33 19 -37 10 43 176 44 27 -38 1 35 0.50
178 15 21 -37 57 57 13 51 49.3 59 45 -50 179 15 35 -37 39 34 177 14 11 -38 16 7 179 39 18 -37 32 13 176 49 37 -38 23 17 0.50
178 20 54 -38 19 36 13 51 53.4 59 45 -50 179 21 26 -38 1 9 177 19 27 -38 37 51 179 45 15 -37 53 46 176 54 45 -38 45 3 0.50
178 26 27 -38 41 19 13 51 57.5 59 44 -50 179 27 17 -38 22 48 177 24 42 -38 59 38 179 51 13 -38 15 23 176 59 52 -39 6 52 0.50
178 32 0 -39 3 5 13 52 1.6 58 43 -49 179 33 8 -38 44 29 177 29 55 -39 21 29 179 57 11 -38 37 3 177 4 58 -39 28 45 0.50
178 37 32 -39 24 55 13 52 5.7 58 43 -49 179 38 58 -39 6 14 177 35 8 -39 43 24 -179 56 52 -38 58 46 177 10 2 -39 50 41 0.50
178 43 3 -39 46 48 13 52 9.8 58 42 -49 179 44 48 -39 28 3 177 40 19 -40 5 22 -179 50 55 -39 20 32 177 15 5 -40 12 41 0.50
178 48 33 -40 8 45 13 52 13.9 58 42 -48 179 50 38 -39 49 55 177 45 29 -40 27 23 -179 44 57 -39 42 22 177 20 7 -40 34 44 0.50
178 54 3 -40 30 46 13 52 18.0 58 41 -48 179 56 27 -40 11 51 177 50 38 -40 49 29 -179 39 0 -40 4 16 177 25 8 -40 56 52 0.50
178 59 32 -40 52 50 13 52 22.1 57 41 -48 -179 57 43 -40 33 50 177 55 46 -41 11 38 -179 33 3 -40 26 14 177 30 7 -41 19 3 0.50
179 5 1 -41 14 59 13 52 26.2 57 40 -48 -179 51 54 -40 55 54 178 0 53 -41 33 52 -179 27 5 -40 48 15 177 35 6 -41 41 19 0.50
179 10 29 -41 37 11 13 52 30.3 57 39 -47 -179 46 5 -41 18 1 178 5 59 -41 56 10 -179 21 8 -41 10 20 177 40 2 -42 3 39 0.50
179 15 57 -41 59 28 13 52 34.4 57 39 -47 -179 40 15 -41 40 12 178 11 4 -42 18 31 -179 15 10 -41 32 29 177 44 58 -42 26 2 0.50
179 21 24 -42 21 49 13 52 38.5 56 38 -47 -179 34 26 -42 2 28 178 16 8 -42 40 57 -179 9 13 -41 54 43 177 49 53 -42 48 31 0.50
179 26 50 -42 44 14 13 52 42.6 56 38 -46 -179 28 37 -42 24 47 178 21 11 -43 3 28 -179 3 15 -42 17 0 177 54 46 -43 11 3 0.50
179 32 17 -43 6 43 13 52 46.7 56 37 -46 -179 22 47 -42 47 11 178 26 13 -43 26 3 -178 57 16 -42 39 22 177 59 38 -43 33 40 0.50
179 37 42 -43 29 17 13 52 50.8 56 37 -46 -179 16 58 -43 9 39 178 31 14 -43 48 43 -178 51 18 -43 1 48 178 4 28 -43 56 22 0.50
179 43 8 -43 51 56 13 52 54.9 55 36 -45 -179 11 8 -43 32 12 178 36 14 -44 11 27 -178 45 18 -43 24 18 178 9 17 -44 19 9 0.50
179 48 33 -44 14 39 13 52 59.0 55 36 -45 -179 5 18 -43 54 50 178 41 12 -44 34 16 -178 39 19 -43 46 54 178 14 6 -44 42 1 0.50
179 53 57 -44 37 28 13 53 3.1 55 35 -45 -178 59 28 -44 17 32 178 46 10 -44 57 11 -178 33 19 -44 9 33 178 18 52 -45 4 57 0.50
179 59 22 -45 0 21 13 53 7.2 55 35 -44 -178 53 38 -44 40 19 178 51 7 -45 20 10 -178 27 19 -44 32 18 178 23 38 -45 27 59 0.50
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2020 Aug 15.0
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