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Updated: 2020 AUG 15, 18:57 UT
Event Rank : 85
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Sep 02 UT, the 58.4 km diameter asteroid (934) Thuringia will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a narrow path across the South Island of New Zealand crossing Blenheim and Nelson.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.64 mag to 14.65 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 294-204627 by 934 Thuringia on 2020 Sep 2
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
177 22 0 -46 47 51 10 48 45.0 56 283 -47 176 56 42 -46 52 39 177 47 19 -46 42 58 176 26 8 -46 58 21 178 17 57 -46 36 58 -0.51
177 6 43 -46 27 30 10 48 50.7 56 283 -47 176 41 35 -46 32 15 177 31 53 -46 22 40 176 11 12 -46 37 54 178 2 19 -46 16 43 -0.51
176 51 45 -46 7 8 10 48 56.4 57 283 -48 176 26 46 -46 11 50 177 16 45 -46 2 21 175 56 34 -46 17 26 177 47 1 -45 56 27 -0.51
176 37 5 -45 46 46 10 49 2.1 57 282 -48 176 12 14 -45 51 25 177 1 56 -45 42 1 175 42 13 -45 56 58 177 32 1 -45 36 11 -0.51
176 22 42 -45 26 23 10 49 7.8 57 282 -48 175 58 0 -45 31 0 176 47 24 -45 21 41 175 28 10 -45 36 29 177 17 18 -45 15 55 -0.51
176 8 36 -45 6 0 10 49 13.6 57 282 -48 175 44 3 -45 10 35 176 33 9 -45 1 21 175 14 23 -45 16 1 177 2 53 -44 55 38 -0.51
175 54 46 -44 45 37 10 49 19.3 57 281 -48 175 30 22 -44 50 9 176 19 11 -44 41 0 175 0 53 -44 55 32 176 48 45 -44 35 20 -0.51
175 41 13 -44 25 14 10 49 25.0 58 281 -49 175 16 57 -44 29 43 176 5 29 -44 20 39 174 47 38 -44 35 3 176 34 53 -44 15 2 -0.51
175 27 55 -44 4 50 10 49 30.7 58 281 -49 175 3 48 -44 9 17 175 52 4 -44 0 18 174 34 39 -44 14 34 176 21 17 -43 54 44 -0.51
175 14 53 -43 44 26 10 49 36.4 58 280 -49 174 50 54 -43 48 51 175 38 53 -43 39 56 174 21 55 -43 54 5 176 7 57 -43 34 25 -0.51
175 2 6 -43 24 1 10 49 42.1 58 280 -49 174 38 15 -43 28 24 175 25 58 -43 19 34 174 9 26 -43 33 36 175 54 52 -43 14 5 -0.51
174 49 33 -43 3 37 10 49 47.9 58 279 -49 174 25 50 -43 7 57 175 13 17 -42 59 12 173 57 10 -43 13 7 175 42 2 -42 53 46 -0.51
174 37 14 -42 43 12 10 49 53.6 59 279 -50 174 13 39 -42 47 30 175 0 51 -42 38 49 173 45 9 -42 52 37 175 29 26 -42 33 26 -0.51
174 25 10 -42 22 47 10 49 59.3 59 279 -50 174 1 42 -42 27 3 174 48 39 -42 18 26 173 33 21 -42 32 7 175 17 5 -42 13 5 -0.51
174 13 19 -42 2 21 10 50 5.0 59 278 -50 173 49 58 -42 6 36 174 36 40 -41 58 3 173 21 46 -42 11 38 175 4 57 -41 52 45 -0.51
174 1 41 -41 41 56 10 50 10.7 59 278 -50 173 38 28 -41 46 8 174 24 55 -41 37 39 173 10 25 -41 51 8 174 53 3 -41 32 23 -0.51
173 50 15 -41 21 30 10 50 16.4 59 277 -50 173 27 10 -41 25 40 174 13 22 -41 17 15 172 59 16 -41 30 38 174 41 22 -41 12 2 -0.51
173 39 3 -41 1 4 10 50 22.2 60 277 -51 173 16 5 -41 5 12 174 2 3 -40 56 51 172 48 19 -41 10 7 174 29 54 -40 51 40 -0.51
173 28 3 -40 40 37 10 50 27.9 60 276 -51 173 5 11 -40 44 44 173 50 56 -40 36 27 172 37 34 -40 49 37 174 18 38 -40 31 18 -0.51
173 17 15 -40 20 11 10 50 33.6 60 276 -51 172 54 30 -40 24 16 173 40 1 -40 16 2 172 27 1 -40 29 6 174 7 35 -40 10 55 -0.51
173 6 38 -39 59 44 10 50 39.3 60 276 -51 172 44 0 -40 3 47 173 29 17 -39 55 36 172 16 40 -40 8 35 173 56 43 -39 50 32 -0.51
172 56 13 -39 39 16 10 50 45.0 60 275 -51 172 33 42 -39 43 18 173 18 46 -39 35 11 172 6 30 -39 48 4 173 46 4 -39 30 8 -0.51
172 45 59 -39 18 49 10 50 50.7 60 275 -52 172 23 35 -39 22 48 173 8 26 -39 14 45 171 56 30 -39 27 33 173 35 36 -39 9 44 -0.51
172 35 57 -38 58 21 10 50 56.5 60 274 -52 172 13 39 -39 2 19 172 58 16 -38 54 18 171 46 42 -39 7 2 173 25 19 -38 49 20 -0.52
172 26 5 -38 37 52 10 51 2.2 61 274 -52 172 3 53 -38 41 49 172 48 18 -38 33 52 171 37 4 -38 46 30 173 15 13 -38 28 55 -0.52
172 16 23 -38 17 24 10 51 7.9 61 273 -52 171 54 18 -38 21 19 172 38 30 -38 13 25 171 27 36 -38 25 58 173 5 18 -38 8 30 -0.52
172 6 52 -37 56 55 10 51 13.6 61 273 -52 171 44 53 -38 0 48 172 28 53 -37 52 57 171 18 18 -38 5 26 172 55 33 -37 48 4 -0.52
171 57 31 -37 36 25 10 51 19.3 61 272 -52 171 35 37 -37 40 18 172 19 26 -37 32 29 171 9 11 -37 44 53 172 45 59 -37 27 38 -0.52
171 48 20 -37 15 55 10 51 25.0 61 272 -53 171 26 32 -37 19 46 172 10 9 -37 12 1 171 0 12 -37 24 20 172 36 35 -37 7 12 -0.52
171 39 18 -36 55 25 10 51 30.7 61 271 -53 171 17 36 -36 59 15 172 1 2 -36 51 32 170 51 24 -37 3 47 172 27 20 -36 46 44 -0.52
171 30 26 -36 34 55 10 51 36.5 61 270 -53 171 8 50 -36 38 43 171 52 4 -36 31 3 170 42 44 -36 43 13 172 18 16 -36 26 17 -0.52
171 21 43 -36 14 23 10 51 42.2 61 270 -53 171 0 13 -36 18 10 171 43 15 -36 10 33 170 34 14 -36 22 39 172 9 21 -36 5 48 -0.52
171 13 10 -35 53 52 10 51 47.9 61 269 -53 170 51 45 -35 57 37 171 34 36 -35 50 2 170 25 52 -36 2 5 172 0 35 -35 45 20 -0.52
171 4 45 -35 33 19 10 51 53.6 62 269 -53 170 43 25 -35 37 4 171 26 6 -35 29 31 170 17 39 -35 41 30 171 51 58 -35 24 50 -0.52
170 56 29 -35 12 47 10 51 59.3 62 268 -54 170 35 14 -35 16 30 171 17 45 -35 9 0 170 9 35 -35 20 55 171 43 30 -35 4 20 -0.52
170 48 21 -34 52 14 10 52 5.0 62 268 -54 170 27 12 -34 55 55 171 9 32 -34 48 28 170 1 39 -35 0 19 171 35 11 -34 43 50 -0.52
170 40 22 -34 31 40 10 52 10.8 62 267 -54 170 19 18 -34 35 20 171 1 28 -34 27 55 169 53 52 -34 39 43 171 27 1 -34 23 18 -0.52
170 32 32 -34 11 5 10 52 16.5 62 266 -54 170 11 33 -34 14 45 170 53 32 -34 7 22 169 46 12 -34 19 6 171 18 59 -34 2 46 -0.52
170 24 49 -33 50 30 10 52 22.2 62 266 -54 170 3 55 -33 54 9 170 45 45 -33 46 48 169 38 41 -33 58 28 171 11 6 -33 42 14 -0.52
170 17 14 -33 29 54 10 52 27.9 62 265 -54 169 56 25 -33 33 32 170 38 5 -33 26 13 169 31 17 -33 37 50 171 3 20 -33 21 40 -0.52
170 9 48 -33 9 18 10 52 33.6 62 265 -55 169 49 3 -33 12 55 170 30 34 -33 5 37 169 24 0 -33 17 12 170 55 43 -33 1 6 -0.52
170 2 28 -32 48 41 10 52 39.3 62 264 -55 169 41 49 -32 52 16 170 23 10 -32 45 1 169 16 52 -32 56 32 170 48 14 -32 40 31 -0.52
169 55 17 -32 28 3 10 52 45.1 62 263 -55 169 34 42 -32 31 38 170 15 54 -32 24 24 169 9 50 -32 35 52 170 40 52 -32 19 55 -0.52
169 48 13 -32 7 24 10 52 50.8 62 263 -55 169 27 42 -32 10 58 170 8 45 -32 3 47 169 2 56 -32 15 12 170 33 38 -31 59 18 -0.52
169 41 16 -31 46 45 10 52 56.5 62 262 -55 169 20 50 -31 50 18 170 1 44 -31 43 8 168 56 10 -31 54 30 170 26 31 -31 38 41 -0.52
169 34 27 -31 26 4 10 53 2.2 62 262 -55 169 14 5 -31 29 36 169 54 50 -31 22 28 168 49 30 -31 33 48 170 19 32 -31 18 3 -0.52
169 27 44 -31 5 23 10 53 7.9 62 261 -56 169 7 27 -31 8 54 169 48 3 -31 1 48 168 42 57 -31 13 5 170 12 40 -30 57 23 -0.52
169 21 9 -30 44 41 10 53 13.6 62 260 -56 169 0 56 -30 48 11 169 41 24 -30 41 7 168 36 31 -30 52 21 170 5 56 -30 36 43 -0.52
169 14 40 -30 23 58 10 53 19.4 62 260 -56 168 54 31 -30 27 28 169 34 51 -30 20 24 168 30 11 -30 31 36 169 59 18 -30 16 2 -0.52
169 8 18 -30 3 14 10 53 25.1 62 259 -56 168 48 13 -30 6 43 169 28 25 -29 59 41 168 23 58 -30 10 51 169 52 47 -29 55 19 -0.52
169 2 3 -29 42 29 10 53 30.8 62 258 -56 168 42 2 -29 45 57 169 22 6 -29 38 57 168 17 52 -29 50 4 169 46 23 -29 34 36 -0.52
168 55 54 -29 21 43 10 53 36.5 62 258 -56 168 35 57 -29 25 10 169 15 53 -29 18 12 168 11 52 -29 29 17 169 40 6 -29 13 51 -0.52
168 49 52 -29 0 56 10 53 42.2 62 257 -56 168 29 59 -29 4 22 169 9 47 -28 57 25 168 5 58 -29 8 28 169 33 55 -28 53 6 -0.53
168 43 56 -28 40 7 10 53 47.9 62 257 -57 168 24 7 -28 43 34 169 3 47 -28 36 38 168 0 11 -28 47 38 169 27 51 -28 32 19 -0.53
168 38 7 -28 19 18 10 53 53.7 62 256 -57 168 18 21 -28 22 44 168 57 54 -28 15 49 167 54 29 -28 26 47 169 21 53 -28 11 31 -0.53
168 32 23 -27 58 27 10 53 59.4 62 255 -57 168 12 41 -28 1 52 168 52 7 -27 54 59 167 48 54 -28 5 56 169 16 2 -27 50 42 -0.53
168 26 46 -27 37 36 10 54 5.1 62 255 -57 168 7 8 -27 41 0 168 46 26 -27 34 8 167 43 25 -27 45 3 169 10 17 -27 29 51 -0.53
168 21 15 -27 16 42 10 54 10.8 62 254 -57 168 1 40 -27 20 6 168 40 52 -27 13 15 167 38 1 -27 24 8 169 4 38 -27 8 59 -0.53
168 15 50 -26 55 48 10 54 16.5 62 253 -57 167 56 18 -26 59 11 168 35 23 -26 52 21 167 32 44 -27 3 13 168 59 5 -26 48 6 -0.53
168 10 30 -26 34 52 10 54 22.2 62 253 -57 167 51 2 -26 38 15 168 30 0 -26 31 26 167 27 32 -26 42 16 168 53 38 -26 27 12 -0.53
168 5 17 -26 13 55 10 54 28.0 62 252 -57 167 45 52 -26 17 18 168 24 43 -26 10 29 167 22 25 -26 21 18 168 48 18 -26 6 16 -0.53
168 0 9 -25 52 57 10 54 33.7 62 251 -58 167 40 47 -25 56 19 168 19 32 -25 49 31 167 17 25 -26 0 18 168 43 3 -25 45 18 -0.53
167 55 7 -25 31 57 10 54 39.4 62 251 -58 167 35 48 -25 35 18 168 14 27 -25 28 32 167 12 29 -25 39 18 168 37 54 -25 24 19 -0.53
167 50 10 -25 10 55 10 54 45.1 62 250 -58 167 30 55 -25 14 17 168 9 28 -25 7 31 167 7 40 -25 18 15 168 32 50 -25 3 19 -0.53
167 45 19 -24 49 52 10 54 50.8 62 250 -58 167 26 7 -24 53 13 168 4 34 -24 46 28 167 2 56 -24 57 11 168 27 53 -24 42 16 -0.53
167 40 34 -24 28 48 10 54 56.5 62 249 -58 167 21 24 -24 32 8 167 59 45 -24 25 24 166 58 17 -24 36 6 168 23 1 -24 21 13 -0.53
167 35 54 -24 7 41 10 55 2.3 62 248 -58 167 16 47 -24 11 2 167 55 2 -24 4 18 166 53 43 -24 14 59 168 18 14 -24 0 7 -0.53
167 31 19 -23 46 34 10 55 8.0 62 248 -58 167 12 15 -23 49 53 167 50 25 -23 43 10 166 49 15 -23 53 50 168 13 33 -23 39 0 -0.53
167 26 50 -23 25 24 10 55 13.7 61 247 -58 167 7 49 -23 28 43 167 45 52 -23 22 1 166 44 51 -23 32 40 168 8 58 -23 17 51 -0.53
167 22 25 -23 4 12 10 55 19.4 61 247 -58 167 3 27 -23 7 32 167 41 26 -23 0 50 166 40 33 -23 11 28 168 4 28 -22 56 40 -0.53
167 18 7 -22 42 59 10 55 25.1 61 246 -59 166 59 11 -22 46 18 167 37 4 -22 39 37 166 36 20 -22 50 14 168 0 3 -22 35 27 -0.53
167 13 53 -22 21 44 10 55 30.8 61 245 -59 166 55 0 -22 25 3 167 32 48 -22 18 22 166 32 12 -22 28 58 167 55 44 -22 14 13 -0.53
167 9 44 -22 0 27 10 55 36.5 61 245 -59 166 50 54 -22 3 45 167 28 37 -21 57 5 166 28 9 -22 7 41 167 51 30 -21 52 56 -0.53
167 5 41 -21 39 8 10 55 42.3 61 244 -59 166 46 53 -21 42 26 167 24 31 -21 35 46 166 24 12 -21 46 22 167 47 21 -21 31 37 -0.53
167 1 43 -21 17 47 10 55 48.0 61 244 -59 166 42 57 -21 21 5 167 20 30 -21 14 25 166 20 18 -21 25 0 167 43 17 -21 10 17 -0.54
166 57 49 -20 56 24 10 55 53.7 61 243 -59 166 39 6 -20 59 42 167 16 34 -20 53 2 166 16 30 -21 3 37 167 39 19 -20 48 54 -0.54
166 54 1 -20 34 58 10 55 59.4 61 242 -59 166 35 20 -20 38 16 167 12 44 -20 31 37 166 12 47 -20 42 11 167 35 25 -20 27 29 -0.54
166 50 17 -20 13 31 10 56 5.1 60 242 -59 166 31 39 -20 16 49 167 8 58 -20 10 10 166 9 9 -20 20 43 167 31 37 -20 6 1 -0.54
166 46 39 -19 52 1 10 56 10.8 60 241 -59 166 28 2 -19 55 19 167 5 18 -19 48 40 166 5 35 -19 59 14 167 27 54 -19 44 32 -0.54
166 43 5 -19 30 29 10 56 16.6 60 241 -59 166 24 31 -19 33 47 167 1 42 -19 27 8 166 2 6 -19 37 42 167 24 15 -19 23 0 -0.54
166 39 37 -19 8 55 10 56 22.3 60 240 -59 166 21 4 -19 12 13 166 58 11 -19 5 34 165 58 42 -19 16 7 167 20 42 -19 1 26 -0.54
166 36 13 -18 47 18 10 56 28.0 60 240 -60 166 17 42 -18 50 36 166 54 45 -18 43 57 165 55 22 -18 54 30 167 17 14 -18 39 49 -0.54
166 32 54 -18 25 39 10 56 33.7 60 239 -60 166 14 25 -18 28 57 166 51 24 -18 22 18 165 52 7 -18 32 51 167 13 50 -18 18 9 -0.54
166 29 39 -18 3 57 10 56 39.4 60 238 -60 166 11 13 -18 7 15 166 48 8 -18 0 36 165 48 57 -18 11 9 167 10 32 -17 56 28 -0.54
166 26 30 -17 42 13 10 56 45.1 59 238 -60 166 8 5 -17 45 30 166 44 57 -17 38 51 165 45 52 -17 49 25 167 7 19 -17 34 43 -0.54
166 23 25 -17 20 26 10 56 50.9 59 237 -60 166 5 2 -17 23 44 166 41 50 -17 17 4 165 42 51 -17 27 38 167 4 10 -17 12 56 -0.54
166 20 25 -16 58 36 10 56 56.6 59 237 -60 166 2 4 -17 1 54 166 38 48 -16 55 14 165 39 55 -17 5 49 167 1 6 -16 51 6 -0.54
166 17 30 -16 36 43 10 57 2.3 59 236 -60 165 59 10 -16 40 1 166 35 51 -16 33 21 165 37 3 -16 43 57 166 58 7 -16 29 13 -0.54
166 14 39 -16 14 48 10 57 8.0 59 236 -60 165 56 21 -16 18 6 166 32 59 -16 11 26 165 34 16 -16 22 2 166 55 13 -16 7 17 -0.54
166 11 53 -15 52 49 10 57 13.7 58 235 -60 165 53 37 -15 56 8 166 30 12 -15 49 27 165 31 34 -16 0 4 166 52 24 -15 45 18 -0.54
166 9 12 -15 30 48 10 57 19.4 58 235 -60 165 50 57 -15 34 7 166 27 29 -15 27 26 165 28 56 -15 38 3 166 49 40 -15 23 16 -0.54
166 6 35 -15 8 44 10 57 25.2 58 234 -60 165 48 22 -15 12 3 166 24 51 -15 5 21 165 26 22 -15 15 59 166 47 0 -15 1 11 -0.54
166 4 4 -14 46 36 10 57 30.9 58 234 -60 165 45 51 -14 49 56 166 22 18 -14 43 13 165 23 54 -14 53 52 166 44 25 -14 39 3 -0.54
166 1 36 -14 24 26 10 57 36.6 58 233 -60 165 43 26 -14 27 45 166 19 50 -14 21 2 165 21 29 -14 31 42 166 41 55 -14 16 52 -0.54
165 59 14 -14 2 12 10 57 42.3 57 233 -60 165 41 4 -14 5 31 166 17 26 -13 58 48 165 19 10 -14 9 29 166 39 30 -13 54 37 -0.55
165 56 56 -13 39 54 10 57 48.0 57 232 -60 165 38 48 -13 43 14 166 15 7 -13 36 30 165 16 54 -13 47 12 166 37 10 -13 32 19 -0.55
165 54 43 -13 17 33 10 57 53.7 57 232 -60 165 36 36 -13 20 54 166 12 53 -13 14 9 165 14 44 -13 24 52 166 34 54 -13 9 57 -0.55
165 50 31 -12 32 41 10 58 5.2 57 231 -61 165 32 26 -12 36 2 166 8 39 -12 29 16 165 10 36 -12 40 1 166 30 38 -12 25 3 -0.55
165 48 32 -12 10 9 10 58 10.9 56 231 -61 165 30 28 -12 13 31 166 6 39 -12 6 44 165 8 40 -12 17 31 166 28 37 -12 2 31 -0.55
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2020 Aug 15.0
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