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Updated: 2020 Jul 01, 04:54 UT
Event Rank : 90
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Aug 14 UT, the 123 km diameter asteroid (1867) Deiphobus will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Centaurus for observers along a wide path across South Australia, north-western New South Wales and central Queensland, passing over Port Pirie, Whyalla and Mackay, and near Adelaide, Broken Hill and Rockhampton.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.48 mag to 15.92 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindlyprovided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by BillOwen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor PlanetCenter.This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by theGaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium(DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium).Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-272-073818 by 1867 Deiphobus on 2020 Aug 14
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
133 22 15 -40 8 42 14 3 6.2 26 244 -60 131 58 30 -40 20 25 134 48 29 -39 54 48 130 32 44 -40 30 40 136 22 18 -39 37 34 1.24
133 36 45 -39 46 23 14 3 8.0 26 244 -60 132 12 50 -39 58 32 135 3 14 -39 32 1 130 46 55 -40 9 11 136 37 23 -39 14 11 1.24
133 51 32 -39 23 52 14 3 9.7 26 244 -61 132 27 24 -39 36 28 135 18 17 -39 8 59 131 1 20 -39 47 32 136 52 49 -38 50 34 1.24
134 6 36 -39 1 8 14 3 11.5 25 243 -61 132 42 14 -39 14 12 135 33 39 -38 45 44 131 15 59 -39 25 42 137 8 36 -38 26 41 1.24
134 21 58 -38 38 11 14 3 13.2 25 243 -62 132 57 20 -38 51 44 135 49 22 -38 22 14 131 30 53 -39 3 42 137 24 47 -38 2 30 1.25
134 37 39 -38 15 0 14 3 15.0 25 243 -62 133 12 43 -38 29 4 136 5 25 -37 58 29 131 46 1 -38 41 30 137 41 23 -37 38 2 1.25
134 53 39 -37 51 35 14 3 16.7 24 242 -63 133 28 24 -38 6 10 136 21 52 -37 34 27 132 1 26 -38 19 7 137 58 24 -37 13 16 1.25
135 10 1 -37 27 54 14 3 18.5 24 242 -63 133 44 23 -37 43 3 136 38 41 -37 10 7 132 17 7 -37 56 31 138 15 52 -36 48 9 1.25
135 26 44 -37 3 57 14 3 20.2 23 242 -63 134 0 42 -37 19 42 136 55 56 -36 45 30 132 33 5 -37 33 42 138 33 50 -36 22 40 1.25
135 43 50 -36 39 43 14 3 21.9 23 242 -64 134 17 21 -36 56 5 137 13 37 -36 20 32 132 49 21 -37 10 39 138 52 18 -35 56 49 1.25
136 1 21 -36 15 10 14 3 23.7 23 241 -64 134 34 21 -36 32 11 137 31 46 -35 55 14 133 5 56 -36 47 22 139 11 18 -35 30 33 1.25
136 19 17 -35 50 19 14 3 25.4 22 241 -65 134 51 44 -36 8 1 137 50 24 -35 29 34 133 22 52 -36 23 50 139 30 54 -35 3 51 1.25
136 37 41 -35 25 6 14 3 27.2 22 241 -65 135 9 31 -35 43 33 138 9 34 -35 3 29 133 40 8 -36 0 1 139 51 8 -34 36 40 1.25
136 56 33 -34 59 32 14 3 28.9 21 240 -66 135 27 43 -35 18 46 138 29 18 -34 37 0 133 57 46 -35 35 56 140 12 3 -34 8 59 1.25
137 15 56 -34 33 35 14 3 30.7 21 240 -66 135 46 21 -34 53 38 138 49 38 -34 10 3 134 15 47 -35 11 34 140 33 41 -33 40 45 1.25
137 35 53 -34 7 12 14 3 32.4 21 240 -67 136 5 28 -34 28 9 139 10 37 -33 42 36 134 34 14 -34 46 52 140 56 8 -33 11 54 1.26
137 56 24 -33 40 23 14 3 34.2 20 240 -67 136 25 6 -34 2 17 139 32 19 -33 14 37 134 53 6 -34 21 50 141 19 27 -32 42 23 1.26
138 17 34 -33 13 5 14 3 35.9 20 239 -68 136 45 16 -33 36 0 139 54 46 -32 46 4 135 12 26 -33 56 27 141 43 45 -32 12 8 1.26
138 39 25 -32 45 15 14 3 37.7 19 239 -69 137 6 0 -33 9 16 140 18 4 -32 16 52 135 32 16 -33 30 41 142 9 6 -31 41 5 1.26
139 2 1 -32 16 51 14 3 39.4 19 239 -69 137 27 22 -32 42 4 140 42 17 -31 46 58 135 52 38 -33 4 31 142 35 39 -31 9 7 1.26
139 25 26 -31 47 50 14 3 41.2 18 238 -70 137 49 25 -32 14 21 141 7 30 -31 16 18 136 13 33 -32 37 55 143 3 33 -30 36 7 1.26
139 49 44 -31 18 8 14 3 42.9 17 238 -70 138 12 11 -31 46 5 141 33 52 -30 44 47 136 35 6 -32 10 50 143 32 59 -30 1 57 1.27
140 15 1 -30 47 41 14 3 44.7 17 238 -71 138 35 45 -31 17 12 142 1 29 -30 12 17 136 57 17 -31 43 16 144 4 12 -29 26 26 1.27
140 41 23 -30 16 24 14 3 46.4 16 238 -72 139 0 11 -30 47 38 142 30 33 -29 38 42 137 20 12 -31 15 8 144 37 30 -28 49 20 1.27
141 8 59 -29 44 11 14 3 48.1 16 237 -72 139 25 35 -30 17 21 143 1 15 -29 3 51 137 43 53 -30 46 25 145 13 16 -28 10 21 1.27
141 37 58 -29 10 55 14 3 49.9 15 237 -73 139 52 3 -29 46 15 143 33 53 -28 27 33 138 8 25 -30 17 2 145 52 5 -27 29 2 1.28
142 8 32 -28 36 26 14 3 51.6 14 237 -74 140 19 42 -29 14 14 144 8 46 -27 49 31 138 33 53 -29 46 57 146 34 44 -26 44 48 1.28
142 40 56 -28 0 34 14 3 53.4 14 236 -74 140 48 42 -28 41 12 144 46 23 -27 9 24 139 0 23 -29 16 4 147 22 26 -25 56 44 1.28
143 15 28 -27 23 3 14 3 55.1 13 236 -75 141 19 14 -28 6 59 145 27 24 -26 26 43 139 28 2 -28 44 18 148 17 17 -25 3 14 1.29
143 52 35 -26 43 35 14 3 56.9 12 236 -76 141 51 32 -27 31 26 146 12 46 -25 40 42 139 56 59 -28 11 32 149 23 17 -24 1 17 1.30
144 32 51 -26 1 43 14 3 58.6 11 235 -77 142 25 53 -26 54 18 147 4 4 -24 50 12 140 27 25 -27 37 39 150 50 45 -22 43 5 1.31
145 17 9 -25 16 47 14 4 0.4 10 235 -78 143 2 43 -26 15 18 148 4 2 -23 53 8 140 59 33 -27 2 28 154 9 30 -20 0 58 1.32
146 6 47 -24 27 49 14 4 2.1 9 235 -79 143 42 33 -25 34 0 149 18 39 -22 45 1 141 33 38 -26 25 46 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.34
147 4 2 -23 33 5 14 4 3.9 8 234 -80 144 26 10 -24 49 51 151 7 37 -21 10 58 142 10 5 -25 47 18 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.37
148 13 23 -22 29 13 14 4 5.6 6 234 -81 145 14 44 -24 1 56 ... .. .. .. .. .. 142 49 21 -25 6 41 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.42
149 47 7 -21 7 0 14 4 7.4 4 233 -83 146 10 14 -23 8 47 ... .. .. .. .. .. 143 32 9 -24 23 22 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.58
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. 147 16 21 -22 7 37 ... .. .. .. .. .. 144 19 31 -23 36 37 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. 148 42 9 -20 51 40 ... .. .. .. .. .. 145 13 7 -22 45 9 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. 151 15 32 -18 45 3 ... .. .. .. .. .. 146 15 57 -21 46 45 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 147 34 38 -20 36 24 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. 149 32 51 -18 56 29 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2020 Jul 1.0
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