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Updated: 2020 Jul 01, 04:43 UT
Event Rank : 23
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Aug 10 UT, the 13.6 km diameter asteroid (1817) Katanga will occult a 8.9 mag star in the constellation Sculptor for observers along a large uncertainty path across eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales, passing near Gladstone, Ipswich and Lismore.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.62 mag to 15.52 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most a brief 1.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindlyprovided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by BillOwen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor PlanetCenter.This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by theGaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium(DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium).Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 6431-01463-1 by 1817 Katanga on 2020 Aug 10
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
147 14 54 -10 0 0 19 11 12.8 70 205 -18 147 11 0 147 18 49 146 48 25 147 41 27 -0.22
147 29 5 -11 0 0 19 11 23.2 71 207 -18 147 25 10 147 33 1 147 2 29 147 55 45 -0.22
147 43 39 -12 0 0 19 11 33.6 72 209 -18 147 39 42 147 47 36 147 16 55 148 10 27 -0.22
147 58 37 -13 0 0 19 11 44.1 72 211 -18 147 54 39 148 2 35 147 31 44 148 25 33 -0.22
148 13 59 -14 0 0 19 11 54.6 73 213 -18 148 10 0 148 17 59 147 46 58 148 41 5 -0.23
148 29 48 -15 0 0 19 12 5.2 74 216 -18 148 25 47 148 33 49 148 2 36 148 57 4 -0.23
148 46 4 -16 0 0 19 12 15.8 74 219 -18 148 42 1 148 50 7 148 18 42 149 13 30 -0.23
149 2 49 -17 0 0 19 12 26.5 75 222 -18 148 58 44 149 6 53 148 35 15 149 30 26 -0.23
149 20 3 -18 0 0 19 12 37.3 75 225 -17 149 15 57 149 24 10 148 52 18 149 47 54 -0.23
149 37 50 -19 0 0 19 12 48.1 76 229 -17 149 33 42 149 41 58 149 9 51 150 5 53 -0.23
149 56 9 -20 0 0 19 12 58.9 76 233 -17 149 51 59 150 0 19 149 27 57 150 24 26 -0.23
150 15 3 -21 0 0 19 13 9.8 76 237 -17 150 10 51 150 19 15 149 46 36 150 43 35 -0.23
150 34 34 -22 0 0 19 13 20.7 77 241 -17 150 30 19 150 38 48 150 5 51 151 3 21 -0.23
150 54 43 -23 0 0 19 13 31.6 77 245 -17 150 50 26 150 59 0 150 25 44 151 23 47 -0.23
151 15 32 -24 0 0 19 13 42.6 77 249 -17 151 11 13 151 19 52 150 46 16 151 44 54 -0.24
151 37 4 -25 0 0 19 13 53.6 77 254 -16 151 32 42 151 41 27 151 7 29 152 6 45 -0.24
151 59 21 -26 0 0 19 14 4.6 77 258 -16 151 54 56 152 3 47 151 29 26 152 29 22 -0.24
152 22 26 -27 0 0 19 14 15.7 76 262 -16 152 17 57 152 26 54 151 52 10 152 52 48 -0.24
152 46 20 -28 0 0 19 14 26.8 76 266 -16 152 41 49 152 50 52 152 15 42 153 17 5 -0.24
153 11 8 -29 0 0 19 14 37.9 76 270 -15 153 6 33 153 15 43 152 40 6 153 42 16 -0.24
153 36 51 -30 0 0 19 14 49.0 75 274 -15 153 32 12 153 41 30 153 5 25 154 8 25 -0.24
154 3 34 -31 0 0 19 15 0.2 75 277 -15 153 58 51 154 8 17 153 31 41 154 35 34 -0.24
154 31 20 -32 0 0 19 15 11.3 74 280 -15 154 26 33 154 36 7 153 58 59 155 3 49 -0.24
155 0 13 -33 0 0 19 15 22.5 73 283 -14 154 55 21 155 5 4 154 27 22 155 33 12 -0.24
155 30 17 -34 0 0 19 15 33.7 73 286 -14 155 25 21 155 35 13 154 56 55 156 3 48 -0.24
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2020 Jul 1.0
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