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Updated: 2020 APR 06, 05:14 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Jul 24 UT, the 179.3 km diameter asteroid (259) Aletheia will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Microscopium for observers along a broad path across south-eastern Australia from Tweed Heads across eastern New South Wales and central Victoria to (directly over) Melbourne, possibly including Sydney and Canberra. The north-eastern New South Wales section is in morning twilight.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.15 mag to 11.77 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 15.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 308-272505 by 259 Aletheia on 2020 Jul 24
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
167 43 5 -18 7 41 19 53 10.6 5 242 7 ... .. .. .. .. .. 162 48 27 -19 58 15 ... .. .. .. .. .. 161 55 34 -20 14 34 ....
165 58 30 -19 15 56 19 53 13.4 7 242 5 ... .. .. .. .. .. 161 50 50 -20 40 20 ... .. .. .. .. .. 161 2 12 -20 54 14 0.99
164 39 35 -20 10 0 19 53 16.3 8 243 3 ... .. .. .. .. .. 160 58 56 -21 19 13 ... .. .. .. .. .. 160 13 30 -21 31 18 1.05
163 33 43 -20 56 51 19 53 19.2 9 243 2 168 52 26 -18 53 7 160 11 23 -21 55 41 ... .. .. .. .. .. 159 28 26 -22 6 19 1.08
162 36 6 -21 39 7 19 53 22.1 10 243 1 166 58 44 -20 6 38 159 27 16 -22 30 13 168 36 50 -19 25 14 158 46 20 -22 39 42 1.09
161 44 20 -22 18 7 19 53 25.0 11 244 0 165 36 33 -21 2 44 158 45 58 -23 3 11 166 51 59 -20 33 56 158 6 41 -23 11 41 1.10
160 56 58 -22 54 40 19 53 27.8 12 244 -1 164 29 2 -21 50 42 158 7 0 -23 34 51 165 33 27 -21 28 5 157 29 7 -23 42 30 1.11
160 13 4 -23 29 17 19 53 30.7 13 245 -2 163 30 29 -22 33 41 157 30 2 -24 5 22 164 28 4 -22 14 55 156 53 21 -24 12 18 1.11
159 32 1 -24 2 18 19 53 33.6 14 245 -2 162 38 10 -23 13 13 156 54 47 -24 34 55 163 31 1 -22 57 8 156 19 9 -24 41 13 1.11
158 53 19 -24 34 0 19 53 36.5 15 245 -3 161 50 28 -23 50 9 156 21 4 -25 3 37 162 39 47 -23 36 6 155 46 20 -25 9 21 1.12
158 16 37 -25 4 33 19 53 39.3 15 245 -4 161 6 24 -24 25 4 155 48 41 -25 31 33 161 52 58 -24 12 36 155 14 45 -25 36 47 1.12
157 41 40 -25 34 8 19 53 42.2 16 246 -4 160 25 15 -24 58 21 155 17 30 -25 58 48 161 9 38 -24 47 10 154 44 17 -26 3 35 1.12
157 8 14 -26 2 52 19 53 45.1 17 246 -5 159 46 33 -25 30 15 154 47 23 -26 25 27 160 29 6 -25 20 8 154 14 48 -26 29 49 1.12
156 36 9 -26 30 50 19 53 48.0 17 246 -6 159 9 55 -26 0 59 154 18 15 -26 51 32 159 50 56 -25 51 48 153 46 14 -26 55 32 1.12
156 5 16 -26 58 7 19 53 50.8 18 247 -6 158 35 3 -26 30 44 153 50 0 -27 17 7 159 14 46 -26 22 20 153 18 30 -27 20 47 1.12
155 35 27 -27 24 47 19 53 53.7 18 247 -7 158 1 45 -26 59 36 153 22 34 -27 42 14 158 40 20 -26 51 53 152 51 33 -27 45 35 1.13
155 6 38 -27 50 54 19 53 56.6 19 247 -7 157 29 50 -27 27 41 152 55 52 -28 6 56 158 7 25 -27 20 35 152 25 17 -28 9 58 1.13
154 38 41 -28 16 31 19 53 59.5 20 248 -8 156 59 7 -27 55 5 152 29 53 -28 31 13 157 35 51 -27 48 32 151 59 41 -28 34 0 1.13
154 11 34 -28 41 40 19 54 2.4 20 248 -8 156 29 31 -28 21 52 152 4 31 -28 55 9 157 5 28 -28 15 49 151 34 41 -28 57 40 1.13
153 45 12 -29 6 23 19 54 5.2 21 248 -9 156 0 54 -28 48 5 151 39 46 -29 18 44 156 36 10 -28 42 29 151 10 15 -29 21 1 1.13
153 19 31 -29 30 43 19 54 8.1 21 248 -9 155 33 12 -29 13 47 151 15 33 -29 42 1 156 7 50 -29 8 35 150 46 21 -29 44 4 1.13
152 54 29 -29 54 41 19 54 11.0 22 249 -10 155 6 19 -29 39 2 150 51 52 -30 4 59 155 40 24 -29 34 12 150 22 57 -30 6 49 1.13
152 30 3 -30 18 18 19 54 13.9 22 249 -10 154 40 11 -30 3 50 150 28 41 -30 27 40 155 13 46 -29 59 22 150 0 0 -30 29 18 1.13
152 6 10 -30 41 36 19 54 16.7 22 249 -11 154 14 46 -30 28 15 150 5 57 -30 50 6 154 47 53 -30 24 5 149 37 31 -30 51 33 1.13
151 42 48 -31 4 37 19 54 19.6 23 250 -11 153 50 0 -30 52 18 149 43 39 -31 12 16 154 22 42 -30 48 26 149 15 26 -31 13 33 1.13
151 19 56 -31 27 21 19 54 22.5 23 250 -11 153 25 51 -31 16 0 149 21 45 -31 34 13 153 58 10 -31 12 25 148 53 44 -31 35 19 1.13
150 57 32 -31 49 49 19 54 25.4 24 250 -12 153 2 15 -31 39 23 149 0 14 -31 55 56 153 34 13 -31 36 3 148 32 25 -31 56 52 1.13
150 35 33 -32 12 2 19 54 28.2 24 251 -12 152 39 11 -32 2 28 148 39 6 -32 17 27 153 10 49 -31 59 23 148 11 27 -32 18 14 1.13
150 13 59 -32 34 1 19 54 31.1 25 251 -13 152 16 37 -32 25 16 148 18 18 -32 38 46 152 47 57 -32 22 25 147 50 49 -32 39 23 1.13
149 52 49 -32 55 47 19 54 34.0 25 251 -13 151 54 30 -32 47 49 147 57 50 -32 59 53 152 25 35 -32 45 10 147 30 30 -33 0 22 1.13
149 32 1 -33 17 20 19 54 36.9 25 251 -13 151 32 51 -33 10 6 147 37 42 -33 20 49 152 3 40 -33 7 40 147 10 29 -33 21 10 1.14
149 11 33 -33 38 42 19 54 39.8 26 252 -14 151 11 36 -33 32 10 147 17 51 -33 41 35 151 42 11 -33 29 56 146 50 46 -33 41 48 1.14
148 51 26 -33 59 52 19 54 42.6 26 252 -14 150 50 45 -33 54 1 146 58 17 -34 2 12 151 21 7 -33 51 57 146 31 19 -34 2 17 1.14
148 31 37 -34 20 52 19 54 45.5 26 252 -14 150 30 16 -34 15 38 146 38 59 -34 22 39 151 0 27 -34 13 46 146 12 9 -34 22 37 1.14
148 12 7 -34 41 41 19 54 48.4 27 253 -15 150 10 8 -34 37 4 146 19 58 -34 42 56 150 40 8 -34 35 22 145 53 13 -34 42 47 1.14
147 52 54 -35 2 21 19 54 51.3 27 253 -15 149 50 21 -34 58 19 146 1 11 -35 3 6 150 20 11 -34 56 46 145 34 32 -35 2 50 1.14
147 33 57 -35 22 51 19 54 54.1 27 253 -15 149 30 53 -35 19 23 145 42 39 -35 23 7 150 0 34 -35 17 59 145 16 4 -35 22 44 1.14
147 15 17 -35 43 12 19 54 57.0 28 254 -16 149 11 43 -35 40 17 145 24 20 -35 43 0 149 41 16 -35 39 2 144 57 51 -35 42 31 1.14
146 56 51 -36 3 25 19 54 59.9 28 254 -16 148 52 51 -36 1 1 145 6 15 -36 2 46 149 22 16 -35 59 54 144 39 50 -36 2 11 1.14
146 38 41 -36 23 30 19 55 2.8 28 254 -16 148 34 16 -36 21 36 144 48 23 -36 22 24 149 3 34 -36 20 37 144 22 1 -36 21 43 1.14
146 20 44 -36 43 26 19 55 5.6 29 255 -17 148 15 57 -36 42 2 144 30 42 -36 41 55 148 45 8 -36 41 11 144 4 24 -36 41 9 1.14
146 3 0 -37 3 16 19 55 8.5 29 255 -17 147 57 53 -37 2 19 144 13 14 -37 1 20 148 26 59 -37 1 36 143 46 59 -37 0 28 1.14
145 45 30 -37 22 58 19 55 11.4 29 255 -17 147 40 5 -37 22 29 143 55 57 -37 20 38 148 9 4 -37 21 53 143 29 45 -37 19 40 1.14
145 28 11 -37 42 34 19 55 14.3 30 255 -17 147 22 30 -37 42 30 143 38 51 -37 39 50 147 51 25 -37 42 1 143 12 41 -37 38 47 1.14
145 11 5 -38 2 2 19 55 17.2 30 256 -18 147 5 9 -38 2 24 143 21 55 -37 58 57 147 34 0 -38 2 2 142 55 47 -37 57 48 1.14
144 54 11 -38 21 25 19 55 20.0 30 256 -18 146 48 2 -38 22 12 143 5 10 -38 17 57 147 16 48 -38 21 56 142 39 4 -38 16 44 1.14
144 37 27 -38 40 41 19 55 22.9 30 256 -18 146 31 7 -38 41 52 142 48 34 -38 36 52 146 59 50 -38 41 42 142 22 30 -38 35 33 1.14
144 20 55 -38 59 52 19 55 25.8 31 257 -19 146 14 24 -39 1 26 142 32 8 -38 55 42 146 43 4 -39 1 22 142 6 5 -38 54 18 1.14
144 4 32 -39 18 56 19 55 28.7 31 257 -19 145 57 53 -39 20 53 142 15 51 -39 14 26 146 26 31 -39 20 56 141 49 49 -39 12 58 1.14
143 48 20 -39 37 56 19 55 31.5 31 257 -19 145 41 34 -39 40 14 141 59 43 -39 33 6 146 10 9 -39 40 23 141 33 42 -39 31 33 1.14
143 32 17 -39 56 50 19 55 34.4 31 258 -19 145 25 26 -39 59 30 141 43 44 -39 51 40 145 53 59 -39 59 44 141 17 43 -39 50 3 1.14
143 16 24 -40 15 39 19 55 37.3 32 258 -20 145 9 28 -40 18 40 141 27 53 -40 10 10 145 38 0 -40 19 0 141 1 52 -40 8 29 1.14
143 0 40 -40 34 24 19 55 40.2 32 258 -20 144 53 41 -40 37 45 141 12 10 -40 28 36 145 22 11 -40 38 10 140 46 9 -40 26 50 1.14
142 45 5 -40 53 3 19 55 43.0 32 259 -20 144 38 3 -40 56 44 140 56 34 -40 46 58 145 6 33 -40 57 14 140 30 33 -40 45 8 1.15
142 29 38 -41 11 38 19 55 45.9 32 259 -20 144 22 36 -41 15 39 140 41 6 -41 5 15 144 51 5 -41 16 14 140 15 5 -41 3 21 1.15
142 14 20 -41 30 9 19 55 48.8 33 259 -20 144 7 18 -41 34 29 140 25 46 -41 23 29 144 35 47 -41 35 9 139 59 43 -41 21 30 1.15
141 59 9 -41 48 36 19 55 51.7 33 260 -21 143 52 9 -41 53 14 140 10 32 -41 41 38 144 20 38 -41 53 59 139 44 29 -41 39 36 1.15
141 44 7 -42 6 58 19 55 54.6 33 260 -21 143 37 9 -42 11 55 139 55 26 -41 59 44 144 5 38 -42 12 44 139 29 21 -41 57 38 1.15
141 29 12 -42 25 17 19 55 57.4 33 260 -21 143 22 17 -42 30 31 139 40 26 -42 17 46 143 50 47 -42 31 25 139 14 20 -42 15 36 1.15
141 14 24 -42 43 32 19 56 0.3 34 261 -21 143 7 34 -42 49 3 139 25 33 -42 35 45 143 36 5 -42 50 2 138 59 25 -42 33 31 1.15
140 59 43 -43 1 44 19 56 3.2 34 261 -22 142 52 59 -43 7 32 139 10 45 -42 53 41 143 21 31 -43 8 35 138 44 36 -42 51 23 1.15
140 45 10 -43 19 51 19 56 6.1 34 261 -22 142 38 32 -43 25 56 138 56 4 -43 11 33 143 7 6 -43 27 4 138 29 53 -43 9 11 1.15
140 30 43 -43 37 56 19 56 8.9 34 262 -22 142 24 13 -43 44 17 138 41 29 -43 29 22 142 52 48 -43 45 29 138 15 16 -43 26 57 1.15
140 16 23 -43 55 57 19 56 11.8 34 262 -22 142 10 1 -44 2 35 138 27 0 -43 47 8 142 38 38 -44 3 51 138 0 44 -43 44 40 1.15
140 2 9 -44 13 55 19 56 14.7 35 262 -22 141 55 57 -44 20 49 138 12 36 -44 4 52 142 24 36 -44 22 9 137 46 18 -44 2 19 1.15
139 48 1 -44 31 51 19 56 17.6 35 263 -23 141 42 0 -44 39 0 137 58 17 -44 22 32 142 10 42 -44 40 23 137 31 57 -44 19 56 1.15
139 34 0 -44 49 43 19 56 20.4 35 263 -23 141 28 10 -44 57 7 137 44 4 -44 40 10 141 56 54 -44 58 35 137 17 41 -44 37 31 1.15
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2020 Apr 6.0
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