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Updated: 2020 APR 06, 04:53 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Jul 16 UT, the 78.2 km diameter asteroid (893) Leopoldina will occult a 9.8 mag star in the constellation Aquila for observers along a path across south-eastern Australia from Eden in south-eastern New South Wales across eastern Victoria to near Wonthagi.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.83 mag to 13.56 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 412-115798 by 893 Leopoldina on 2020 Jul 16
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
175 40 12 -28 5 57 18 16 14.1 1 262 -11 ... .. .. .. .. .. 170 27 39 -28 26 26 ... .. .. .. .. .. 168 33 57 -28 27 22 ....
172 33 19 -28 39 42 18 16 16.3 4 264 -14 ... .. .. .. .. .. 169 6 55 -28 45 47 ... .. .. .. .. .. 167 28 1 -28 44 41 1.06
170 47 32 -29 2 29 18 16 18.5 6 264 -16 ... .. .. .. .. .. 167 57 46 -29 3 34 ... .. .. .. .. .. 166 28 48 -29 1 5 1.35
169 24 49 -29 22 9 18 16 20.8 7 265 -17 173 6 20 -29 14 10 166 56 17 -29 20 18 ... .. .. .. .. .. 165 34 34 -29 16 49 1.42
168 14 31 -29 40 9 18 16 23.0 8 266 -18 171 13 17 -29 37 59 166 0 21 -29 36 18 174 31 11 -29 25 51 164 44 13 -29 32 1 1.46
167 12 17 -29 57 3 18 16 25.2 9 266 -19 169 47 27 -29 58 9 165 8 42 -29 51 43 172 8 31 -29 53 43 163 57 2 -29 46 48 1.48
166 15 49 -30 13 11 18 16 27.5 10 267 -20 168 35 20 -30 16 26 164 20 26 -30 6 41 170 32 19 -30 15 19 163 12 27 -30 1 14 1.49
165 23 46 -30 28 42 18 16 29.7 11 267 -20 167 31 55 -30 33 34 163 34 59 -30 21 16 169 14 32 -30 34 25 162 30 5 -30 15 22 1.50
164 35 13 -30 43 46 18 16 31.9 11 268 -21 166 34 37 -30 49 51 162 51 52 -30 35 32 168 7 24 -30 52 5 161 49 37 -30 29 15 1.50
163 49 32 -30 58 26 18 16 34.2 12 268 -22 165 41 57 -31 5 32 162 10 47 -30 49 32 167 7 28 -31 8 47 161 10 49 -30 42 54 1.51
163 6 15 -31 12 48 18 16 36.4 12 269 -23 164 52 56 -31 20 43 161 31 26 -31 3 18 166 12 48 -31 24 46 160 33 29 -30 56 22 1.51
162 25 2 -31 26 52 18 16 38.6 13 269 -23 164 6 52 -31 35 30 160 53 38 -31 16 52 165 22 12 -31 40 12 159 57 28 -31 9 40 1.51
161 45 35 -31 40 43 18 16 40.9 14 269 -24 163 23 17 -31 49 57 160 17 11 -31 30 16 164 34 52 -31 55 12 159 22 36 -31 22 48 1.52
161 7 41 -31 54 21 18 16 43.1 14 270 -24 162 41 49 -32 4 8 159 41 57 -31 43 29 163 50 14 -32 9 50 158 48 49 -31 35 48 1.52
160 31 11 -32 7 49 18 16 45.3 15 270 -25 162 2 11 -32 18 4 159 7 50 -31 56 34 163 7 52 -32 24 11 158 15 59 -31 48 40 1.52
159 55 54 -32 21 6 18 16 47.6 15 270 -25 161 24 7 -32 31 47 158 34 42 -32 9 31 162 27 28 -32 38 15 157 44 2 -32 1 26 1.52
159 21 45 -32 34 15 18 16 49.8 16 271 -26 160 47 29 -32 45 20 158 2 29 -32 22 21 161 48 45 -32 52 6 157 12 54 -32 14 5 1.52
158 48 36 -32 47 16 18 16 52.0 16 271 -26 160 12 6 -32 58 42 157 31 7 -32 35 5 161 11 32 -33 5 46 156 42 30 -32 26 39 1.52
158 16 22 -33 0 10 18 16 54.3 17 272 -27 159 37 51 -33 11 56 157 0 30 -32 47 43 160 35 38 -33 19 15 156 12 48 -32 39 8 1.52
157 44 59 -33 12 58 18 16 56.5 17 272 -27 159 4 38 -33 25 1 156 30 36 -33 0 15 160 0 56 -33 32 35 155 43 45 -32 51 31 1.53
157 14 22 -33 25 40 18 16 58.7 17 272 -28 158 32 21 -33 38 0 156 1 22 -33 12 43 159 27 18 -33 45 46 155 15 18 -33 3 50 1.53
156 44 29 -33 38 16 18 17 1.0 18 273 -28 158 0 55 -33 50 52 155 32 45 -33 25 6 158 54 39 -33 58 50 154 47 24 -33 16 5 1.53
156 15 15 -33 50 47 18 17 3.2 18 273 -29 157 30 16 -34 3 38 155 4 42 -33 37 25 158 22 54 -34 11 48 154 20 2 -33 28 17 1.53
155 46 39 -34 3 14 18 17 5.4 19 273 -29 157 0 22 -34 16 18 154 37 11 -33 49 39 157 51 57 -34 24 39 153 53 9 -33 40 24 1.53
155 18 38 -34 15 37 18 17 7.7 19 274 -29 156 31 7 -34 28 54 154 10 11 -34 1 50 157 21 46 -34 37 24 153 26 45 -33 52 29 1.53
154 51 9 -34 27 55 18 17 9.9 19 274 -30 156 2 30 -34 41 25 153 43 39 -34 13 58 156 52 17 -34 50 5 153 0 47 -34 4 30 1.53
154 24 10 -34 40 10 18 17 12.1 20 274 -30 155 34 28 -34 53 52 153 17 35 -34 26 3 156 23 26 -35 2 40 152 35 13 -34 16 28 1.53
153 57 40 -34 52 22 18 17 14.4 20 275 -31 155 6 59 -35 6 15 152 51 55 -34 38 4 155 55 12 -35 15 11 152 10 4 -34 28 23 1.53
153 31 37 -35 4 30 18 17 16.6 20 275 -31 154 40 1 -35 18 34 152 26 40 -34 50 3 155 27 32 -35 27 38 151 45 16 -34 40 16 1.53
153 6 0 -35 16 36 18 17 18.8 21 275 -31 154 13 32 -35 30 50 152 1 48 -35 1 59 155 0 23 -35 40 2 151 20 50 -34 52 7 1.53
152 40 47 -35 28 39 18 17 21.1 21 276 -32 153 47 30 -35 43 2 151 37 17 -35 13 53 154 33 45 -35 52 22 150 56 44 -35 3 55 1.53
152 15 57 -35 40 39 18 17 23.3 21 276 -32 153 21 54 -35 55 12 151 13 7 -35 25 45 154 7 34 -36 4 38 150 32 58 -35 15 42 1.53
151 51 29 -35 52 37 18 17 25.5 21 276 -32 152 56 43 -36 7 19 150 49 16 -35 37 34 153 41 50 -36 16 52 150 9 30 -35 27 26 1.53
151 27 21 -36 4 32 18 17 27.8 22 277 -33 152 31 54 -36 19 23 150 25 44 -35 49 22 153 16 31 -36 29 3 149 46 19 -35 39 9 1.53
151 3 34 -36 16 26 18 17 30.0 22 277 -33 152 7 28 -36 31 26 150 2 30 -36 1 7 152 51 36 -36 41 11 149 23 25 -35 50 49 1.53
150 40 5 -36 28 17 18 17 32.2 22 277 -33 151 43 22 -36 43 25 149 39 33 -36 12 51 152 27 3 -36 53 17 149 0 48 -36 2 29 1.53
150 16 53 -36 40 7 18 17 34.5 23 277 -34 151 19 36 -36 55 23 149 16 53 -36 24 34 152 2 51 -37 5 21 148 38 25 -36 14 6 1.53
149 53 59 -36 51 55 18 17 36.7 23 278 -34 150 56 9 -37 7 19 148 54 28 -36 36 14 151 39 0 -37 17 22 148 16 18 -36 25 42 1.53
149 31 22 -37 3 41 18 17 38.9 23 278 -34 150 33 1 -37 19 13 148 32 18 -36 47 54 151 15 28 -37 29 22 147 54 24 -36 37 17 1.54
149 9 0 -37 15 26 18 17 41.2 23 278 -34 150 10 9 -37 31 6 148 10 22 -36 59 32 150 52 15 -37 41 19 147 32 45 -36 48 51 1.54
148 46 53 -37 27 10 18 17 43.4 24 279 -35 149 47 34 -37 42 57 147 48 40 -37 11 9 150 29 19 -37 53 15 147 11 18 -37 0 24 1.54
148 25 1 -37 38 52 18 17 45.6 24 279 -35 149 25 15 -37 54 46 147 27 11 -37 22 44 150 6 40 -38 5 10 146 50 4 -37 11 55 1.54
148 3 22 -37 50 33 18 17 47.9 24 279 -35 149 3 11 -38 6 34 147 5 55 -37 34 19 149 44 17 -38 17 3 146 29 1 -37 23 25 1.54
147 41 57 -38 2 13 18 17 50.1 24 280 -36 148 41 21 -38 18 21 146 44 52 -37 45 52 149 22 10 -38 28 55 146 8 11 -37 34 55 1.54
147 20 44 -38 13 52 18 17 52.3 25 280 -36 148 19 46 -38 30 6 146 24 0 -37 57 25 149 0 17 -38 40 45 145 47 32 -37 46 24 1.54
146 59 44 -38 25 30 18 17 54.6 25 280 -36 147 58 23 -38 41 51 146 3 19 -38 8 57 148 38 39 -38 52 34 145 27 3 -37 57 51 1.54
146 38 56 -38 37 7 18 17 56.8 25 281 -36 147 37 14 -38 53 35 145 42 50 -38 20 28 148 17 14 -39 4 22 145 6 45 -38 9 18 1.54
146 18 19 -38 48 43 18 17 59.0 25 281 -37 147 16 17 -39 5 17 145 22 31 -38 31 58 147 56 3 -39 16 9 144 46 37 -38 20 45 1.54
145 57 53 -39 0 19 18 18 1.3 26 281 -37 146 55 32 -39 16 59 145 2 22 -38 43 27 147 35 4 -39 27 55 144 26 39 -38 32 11 1.54
145 37 37 -39 11 54 18 18 3.5 26 282 -37 146 34 58 -39 28 40 144 42 23 -38 54 56 147 14 17 -39 39 41 144 6 50 -38 43 36 1.54
145 17 32 -39 23 28 18 18 5.7 26 282 -37 146 14 36 -39 40 20 144 22 34 -39 6 25 146 53 42 -39 51 25 143 47 10 -38 55 1 1.54
144 57 37 -39 35 1 18 18 8.0 26 282 -38 145 54 24 -39 52 0 144 2 54 -39 17 52 146 33 18 -40 3 9 143 27 39 -39 6 25 1.54
144 37 51 -39 46 34 18 18 10.2 26 283 -38 145 34 23 -40 3 39 143 43 22 -39 29 20 146 13 5 -40 14 52 143 8 16 -39 17 49 1.54
144 18 15 -39 58 7 18 18 12.4 27 283 -38 145 14 31 -40 15 17 143 23 59 -39 40 47 145 53 2 -40 26 35 142 49 2 -39 29 12 1.54
143 58 47 -40 9 39 18 18 14.7 27 283 -38 144 54 49 -40 26 55 143 4 45 -39 52 13 145 33 10 -40 38 17 142 29 55 -39 40 35 1.54
143 39 28 -40 21 11 18 18 16.9 27 284 -39 144 35 16 -40 38 33 142 45 38 -40 3 40 145 13 27 -40 49 58 142 10 56 -39 51 58 1.54
143 20 18 -40 32 42 18 18 19.1 27 284 -39 144 15 52 -40 50 10 142 26 39 -40 15 6 144 53 54 -41 1 39 141 52 5 -40 3 20 1.54
143 1 15 -40 44 14 18 18 21.4 27 284 -39 143 56 37 -41 1 47 142 7 48 -40 26 32 144 34 30 -41 13 20 141 33 21 -40 14 43 1.54
142 42 20 -40 55 45 18 18 23.6 27 285 -39 143 37 31 -41 13 24 141 49 4 -40 37 57 144 15 15 -41 25 1 141 14 43 -40 26 5 1.54
142 23 33 -41 7 16 18 18 25.8 28 285 -39 143 18 32 -41 25 0 141 30 27 -40 49 23 143 56 8 -41 36 41 140 56 13 -40 37 27 1.54
142 4 53 -41 18 46 18 18 28.1 28 285 -40 142 59 41 -41 36 36 141 11 57 -41 0 48 143 37 9 -41 48 21 140 37 49 -40 48 49 1.54
141 46 20 -41 30 17 18 18 30.3 28 286 -40 142 40 58 -41 48 12 140 53 34 -41 12 14 143 18 19 -42 0 1 140 19 31 -41 0 11 1.54
141 27 54 -41 41 48 18 18 32.5 28 286 -40 142 22 22 -41 59 49 140 35 16 -41 23 39 142 59 36 -42 11 41 140 1 19 -41 11 33 1.54
141 9 34 -41 53 18 18 18 34.8 28 286 -40 142 3 54 -42 11 25 140 17 5 -41 35 4 142 41 0 -42 23 21 139 43 13 -41 22 55 1.54
140 51 21 -42 4 49 18 18 37.0 28 286 -40 141 45 32 -42 23 1 139 59 1 -41 46 30 142 22 32 -42 35 0 139 25 14 -41 34 17 1.54
140 33 15 -42 16 20 18 18 39.2 29 287 -41 141 27 17 -42 34 37 139 41 1 -41 57 55 142 4 11 -42 46 40 139 7 19 -41 45 39 1.54
140 15 14 -42 27 50 18 18 41.5 29 287 -41 141 9 8 -42 46 13 139 23 8 -42 9 21 141 45 57 -42 58 20 138 49 30 -41 57 2 1.54
139 57 19 -42 39 21 18 18 43.7 29 287 -41 140 51 6 -42 57 49 139 5 20 -42 20 47 141 27 49 -43 10 0 138 31 46 -42 8 24 1.54
139 39 30 -42 50 53 18 18 45.9 29 288 -41 140 33 9 -43 9 26 138 47 37 -42 32 13 141 9 48 -43 21 40 138 14 8 -42 19 47 1.54
139 21 46 -43 2 24 18 18 48.2 29 288 -41 140 15 19 -43 21 3 138 30 0 -42 43 39 140 51 53 -43 33 21 137 56 34 -42 31 10 1.55
139 4 8 -43 13 56 18 18 50.4 29 288 -42 139 57 34 -43 32 39 138 12 27 -42 55 6 140 34 4 -43 45 1 137 39 5 -42 42 33 1.55
138 46 35 -43 25 28 18 18 52.6 29 289 -42 139 39 55 -43 44 17 137 54 59 -43 6 33 140 16 21 -43 56 42 137 21 41 -42 53 57 1.55
138 29 6 -43 37 0 18 18 54.9 30 289 -42 139 22 22 -43 55 54 137 37 36 -43 18 0 139 58 43 -44 8 23 137 4 21 -43 5 21 1.55
138 11 43 -43 48 33 18 18 57.1 30 289 -42 139 4 53 -44 7 32 137 20 18 -43 29 27 139 41 11 -44 20 5 136 47 5 -43 16 45 1.55
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2020 Apr 6.0
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