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Updated: 2020 Apr 28, 03:36 UT
Event Rank : 27
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Jun 22 UT, the 36 km diameter asteroid (3939) Huruhata will occult a 9.3 mag star in the constellation Indus for observers along a large uncertainty path across eastern Northern Territory and western South Australia, passing near Alice Springs.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.90 mag to 14.72 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 106864 by 3939 Huruhata on 2020 Jun 22
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
138 23 28 -10 0 0 17 17 55.2 47 166 -52 138 12 33 138 34 21 137 18 16 139 28 8 -0.40
138 11 15 -11 0 0 17 18 3.9 48 165 -53 138 0 18 138 22 11 137 5 45 139 16 12 -0.40
137 58 31 -12 0 0 17 18 12.8 48 165 -53 137 47 30 138 9 30 136 52 42 139 3 47 -0.40
137 45 15 -13 0 0 17 18 21.8 49 164 -54 137 34 11 137 56 17 136 39 5 138 50 51 -0.40
137 31 25 -14 0 0 17 18 31.0 50 164 -54 137 20 18 137 42 32 136 24 54 138 37 23 -0.40
137 17 2 -15 0 0 17 18 40.3 51 163 -55 137 5 51 137 28 13 136 10 6 138 23 24 -0.40
137 2 4 -16 0 0 17 18 49.7 52 163 -55 136 50 48 137 13 19 135 54 42 138 8 51 -0.40
136 46 30 -17 0 0 17 18 59.2 53 162 -56 136 35 10 136 57 50 135 38 40 137 53 44 -0.40
136 30 19 -18 0 0 17 19 8.9 54 162 -56 136 18 54 136 41 44 135 22 0 137 38 2 -0.40
136 13 30 -19 0 0 17 19 18.7 55 161 -57 136 1 59 136 25 0 135 4 38 137 21 44 -0.40
135 56 1 -20 0 0 17 19 28.7 56 160 -57 135 44 25 136 7 36 134 46 35 137 4 48 -0.40
135 37 51 -21 0 0 17 19 38.7 56 159 -58 135 26 8 135 49 32 134 27 49 136 47 13 -0.40
135 18 58 -22 0 0 17 19 48.9 57 159 -58 135 7 9 135 30 45 134 8 17 136 28 57 -0.39
134 59 20 -23 0 0 17 19 59.2 58 158 -58 134 47 25 135 11 15 133 47 59 136 9 59 -0.39
134 38 57 -24 0 0 17 20 9.6 59 157 -59 134 26 54 134 50 58 133 26 52 135 50 18 -0.39
134 17 45 -25 0 0 17 20 20.2 60 156 -59 134 5 35 134 29 54 133 4 55 135 29 51 -0.39
133 55 43 -26 0 0 17 20 30.8 60 155 -59 133 43 25 134 8 0 132 42 4 135 8 36 -0.39
133 32 49 -27 0 0 17 20 41.6 61 154 -60 133 20 22 133 45 14 132 18 17 134 46 32 -0.39
133 8 59 -28 0 0 17 20 52.5 62 153 -60 132 56 23 133 21 34 131 53 33 134 23 35 -0.39
132 44 12 -29 0 0 17 21 3.4 63 151 -60 132 31 26 132 56 56 131 27 47 133 59 44 -0.39
132 18 24 -30 0 0 17 21 14.5 63 150 -61 132 5 28 132 31 18 131 0 57 133 34 56 -0.39
131 51 32 -31 0 0 17 21 25.7 64 149 -61 131 38 25 132 4 37 130 32 59 133 9 7 -0.39
131 23 33 -32 0 0 17 21 37.1 65 147 -61 131 10 15 131 36 50 130 3 50 132 42 15 -0.39
130 54 23 -33 0 0 17 21 48.5 65 145 -61 130 40 52 131 7 52 129 33 26 132 14 17 -0.39
130 23 57 -34 0 0 17 22 0.0 66 144 -61 130 10 14 130 37 39 129 1 42 131 45 7 -0.39
129 0 0 -36 33 19 17 22 29.9 67 139 -62 -36 8 29 -36 57 59 -34 3 8 -38 58 20 -0.38
128 0 0 -38 13 6 17 22 49.8 68 135 -62 -37 49 21 -38 36 43 -35 49 38 -40 32 5 -0.38
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2020 Apr 28.0
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