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Updated: 2020 Apr 28, 03:28 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Jun 19 UT, the 130 km diameter asteroid (344) Desiderata will occult a 6.5 mag star in the constellation Leo for observers along a path across northern West Australia, central Australia and New South Wales, passing over Alice Springs.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.22 mag to 13.72 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 578-47209 by 344 Desiderata on 2020 Jun 19
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
150 55 42 -36 0 0 10 44 17.4 4 305 -47 149 22 32 152 30 41 149 3 56 152 50 5 0.03
149 12 34 -35 0 0 10 44 16.9 6 306 -45 147 42 19 150 44 24 147 24 18 151 3 8 0.05
147 33 39 -34 0 0 10 44 16.2 7 307 -44 146 6 3 149 2 40 145 48 32 149 20 48 0.06
145 58 32 -33 0 0 10 44 15.3 9 308 -42 144 33 18 147 25 1 144 16 15 147 42 37 0.07
144 26 49 -32 0 0 10 44 14.3 11 309 -41 143 3 44 145 51 1 142 47 6 146 8 8 0.07
142 58 11 -31 0 0 10 44 13.1 12 310 -40 141 37 3 144 20 18 141 20 48 144 37 0 0.07
141 32 20 -30 0 0 10 44 11.8 14 310 -38 140 13 0 142 52 34 139 57 6 143 8 52 0.08
140 9 2 -29 0 0 10 44 10.3 15 311 -37 138 51 20 141 27 33 138 35 45 141 43 29 0.08
138 48 3 -28 0 0 10 44 8.7 17 312 -36 137 31 51 140 4 59 137 16 33 140 20 36 0.08
137 29 11 -27 0 0 10 44 6.9 18 312 -34 136 14 21 138 44 41 135 59 20 138 59 59 0.08
136 12 15 -26 0 0 10 44 5.0 20 313 -33 134 58 41 137 26 25 134 43 55 137 41 27 0.08
134 57 5 -25 0 0 10 44 3.0 21 314 -32 133 44 41 136 10 2 133 30 8 136 24 49 0.08
133 43 33 -24 0 0 10 44 0.9 23 314 -30 132 32 12 134 55 22 132 17 52 135 9 55 0.08
132 31 29 -23 0 0 10 43 58.6 24 315 -29 131 21 8 133 42 17 131 6 59 133 56 37 0.08
131 20 47 -22 0 0 10 43 56.2 26 315 -28 130 11 20 132 30 38 129 57 23 132 44 46 0.08
130 11 20 -21 0 0 10 43 53.7 27 316 -26 129 2 43 131 20 18 128 48 55 131 34 15 0.09
129 3 1 -20 0 0 10 43 51.1 29 316 -25 127 55 10 130 11 11 127 41 31 130 24 58 0.09
127 55 44 -19 0 0 10 43 48.4 30 316 -24 126 48 35 129 3 10 126 35 5 129 16 48 0.09
126 49 24 -18 0 0 10 43 45.6 32 317 -23 125 42 54 127 56 9 125 29 31 128 9 39 0.09
125 43 55 -17 0 0 10 43 42.6 33 317 -21 124 38 0 126 50 3 124 24 44 127 3 25 0.09
124 39 12 -16 0 0 10 43 39.6 35 318 -20 123 33 50 125 44 47 123 20 40 125 58 2 0.09
123 35 12 -15 0 0 10 43 36.5 36 318 -19 122 30 18 124 40 16 122 17 13 124 53 25 0.09
122 31 48 -14 0 0 10 43 33.2 38 318 -17 121 27 20 123 36 25 121 14 21 123 49 28 0.09
121 28 58 -13 0 0 10 43 29.9 39 319 -16 120 24 53 122 33 10 120 11 58 122 46 8 0.09
120 26 36 -12 0 0 10 43 26.4 40 319 -15 119 22 52 121 30 27 119 10 1 121 43 20 0.09
119 24 40 -11 0 0 10 43 22.9 42 319 -13 118 21 13 120 28 11 118 8 26 120 41 0 0.09
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2020 Apr 28.0
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