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Updated: 2020 Apr 28, 03:24 UT
Event Rank : 94
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Jun 18 UT, the 92 km diameter asteroid (696) Leonora will occult a 10.5 mag star in the constellation Hydra for observers along a path across north-eastern New South Wales and Queensland, passing over Newcastle.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.18 mag to 15.66 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 6743-01116-1 by 696 Leonora on 2020 Jun 18
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
.. .. .. 39 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. 97 4 30 ... .. .. ....
97 1 0 38 0 0 9 58 34.5 1 130 32 97 49 45 96 11 38 98 33 18 ... .. .. ....
98 28 32 37 0 0 9 58 34.0 2 131 31 99 15 37 97 40 54 99 57 44 96 57 21 0.14
99 51 49 36 0 0 9 58 33.2 4 132 30 100 37 26 99 5 44 101 18 16 98 23 38 0.13
101 11 19 35 0 0 9 58 31.9 5 133 29 101 55 36 100 26 37 102 35 15 99 45 49 0.13
102 27 24 34 0 0 9 58 30.3 7 133 27 103 10 27 101 43 56 103 49 3 101 4 19 0.13
103 40 22 33 0 0 9 58 28.3 8 134 26 104 22 20 102 58 3 104 59 58 102 19 30 0.13
104 50 31 32 0 0 9 58 25.9 10 135 25 105 31 29 104 9 15 106 8 14 103 31 39 0.12
105 58 6 31 0 0 9 58 23.3 11 135 24 106 38 8 105 17 47 107 14 4 104 41 4 0.12
107 3 19 30 0 0 9 58 20.3 12 136 23 107 42 30 106 23 52 108 17 42 105 47 59 0.12
108 6 23 29 0 0 9 58 17.0 14 136 22 108 44 46 107 27 44 109 19 17 106 52 35 0.12
109 7 26 28 0 0 9 58 13.4 15 137 20 109 45 7 108 29 32 110 18 58 107 55 4 0.12
110 6 39 27 0 0 9 58 9.5 16 137 19 110 43 39 109 29 26 111 16 56 108 55 37 0.12
111 4 10 26 0 0 9 58 5.4 18 137 18 111 40 33 110 27 35 112 13 16 109 54 21 0.12
112 0 6 25 0 0 9 58 0.9 19 138 17 112 35 54 111 24 6 113 8 7 110 51 25 0.12
112 54 34 24 0 0 9 57 56.3 20 138 16 113 29 50 112 19 8 114 1 35 111 46 57 0.12
113 47 40 23 0 0 9 57 51.3 21 138 15 114 22 27 113 12 45 114 53 45 112 41 2 0.12
114 39 31 22 0 0 9 57 46.1 23 139 14 115 13 49 114 5 4 115 44 43 113 33 47 0.12
115 30 11 21 0 0 9 57 40.7 24 139 13 116 4 3 114 56 10 116 34 34 114 25 18 0.12
116 19 45 20 0 0 9 57 35.0 25 139 12 116 53 13 115 46 8 117 23 22 115 15 39 0.12
117 8 17 19 0 0 9 57 29.1 26 139 11 117 41 23 116 35 4 118 11 12 116 4 56 0.12
117 55 52 18 0 0 9 57 22.9 28 140 10 118 28 37 117 23 0 118 58 7 116 53 12 0.12
118 42 33 17 0 0 9 57 16.6 29 140 9 119 14 59 118 10 1 119 44 12 117 40 32 0.12
119 28 25 16 0 0 9 57 10.0 30 140 8 120 0 32 118 56 11 120 29 29 118 26 59 0.12
120 13 29 15 0 0 9 57 3.2 31 140 7 120 45 20 119 41 33 121 14 2 119 12 37 0.12
120 57 50 14 0 0 9 56 56.2 33 140 6 121 29 25 120 26 10 121 57 53 119 57 29 0.12
121 41 31 13 0 0 9 56 48.9 34 140 5 122 12 51 121 10 6 122 41 7 120 41 38 0.12
122 24 34 12 0 0 9 56 41.5 35 140 4 122 55 41 121 53 22 123 23 44 121 25 7 0.12
123 7 1 11 0 0 9 56 33.9 36 140 3 123 37 56 122 36 2 124 5 48 122 7 58 0.12
123 48 56 10 0 0 9 56 26.1 37 140 2 124 19 39 123 18 8 124 47 22 122 50 15 0.12
124 30 20 9 0 0 9 56 18.1 38 140 1 125 0 53 123 59 43 125 28 26 123 32 0 0.12
125 11 16 8 0 0 9 56 9.9 40 140 0 125 41 39 124 40 49 126 9 4 124 13 14 0.12
125 51 45 7 0 0 9 56 1.6 41 140 -1 126 22 0 125 21 27 126 49 18 124 54 1 0.12
126 31 51 6 0 0 9 55 53.0 42 140 -2 127 1 58 126 1 41 127 29 9 125 34 21 0.12
127 11 34 5 0 0 9 55 44.3 43 140 -3 127 41 35 126 41 31 128 8 40 126 14 18 0.12
127 50 58 4 0 0 9 55 35.4 44 140 -4 128 20 52 127 21 0 128 47 52 126 53 53 0.12
128 30 2 3 0 0 9 55 26.4 45 140 -5 128 59 51 128 0 10 129 26 46 127 33 8 0.12
129 8 50 2 0 0 9 55 17.2 47 140 -6 129 38 35 128 39 2 130 5 26 128 12 4 0.12
129 47 22 1 0 0 9 55 7.8 48 140 -7 130 17 3 129 17 38 130 43 52 128 50 44 0.12
130 25 41 0 0 0 9 54 58.3 49 140 -8 130 55 20 129 56 0 131 22 5 129 29 9 0.12
131 3 48 - 1 0 0 9 54 48.6 50 139 -9 131 33 24 130 34 10 132 0 8 130 7 21 0.12
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
176 0 0 -54 49 53 9 43 56.0 63 333 -48 -54 14 3 -55 25 49 -53 41 44 -55 58 23 0.15
177 0 0 -55 24 40 9 43 48.1 63 332 -48 -54 49 14 -56 0 12 -54 17 17 -56 32 23 0.15
178 0 0 -55 58 11 9 43 40.5 62 331 -48 -55 23 9 -56 33 18 -54 51 33 -57 5 7 0.15
179 0 0 -56 30 28 9 43 33.2 61 330 -48 -55 55 49 -57 5 11 -55 24 35 -57 36 39 0.15
180 0 0 -57 1 34 9 43 26.0 60 329 -48 -56 27 19 -57 35 54 -55 56 25 -58 7 1 0.15
-179 0 0 -57 31 31 9 43 19.1 60 327 -48 -56 57 39 -58 5 29 -56 27 5 -58 36 15 0.15
-178 0 0 -58 0 23 9 43 12.4 59 326 -48 -57 26 52 -58 33 58 -56 56 38 -59 4 23 0.15
-177 0 0 -58 28 10 9 43 5.9 58 325 -48 -57 55 0 -59 1 23 -57 25 6 -59 31 29 0.15
-176 0 0 -58 54 55 9 42 59.6 58 324 -48 -58 22 7 -59 27 47 -57 52 31 -59 57 34 0.15
-175 0 0 -59 20 41 9 42 53.5 57 323 -48 -58 48 13 -59 53 12 -58 18 56 -60 22 40 0.15
-174 0 0 -59 45 29 9 42 47.6 56 322 -48 -59 13 21 -60 17 40 -58 44 22 -60 46 50 0.15
-173 0 0 -60 9 21 9 42 41.8 56 321 -48 -59 37 33 -60 41 13 -59 8 51 -61 10 5 0.15
-172 0 0 -60 32 20 9 42 36.2 55 320 -48 -60 0 50 -61 3 53 -59 32 26 -61 32 27 0.15
-171 0 0 -60 54 27 9 42 30.8 55 319 -48 -60 23 16 -61 25 41 -59 55 7 -61 53 59 0.15
-170 0 0 -61 15 43 9 42 25.5 54 318 -48 -60 44 50 -61 46 40 -60 16 58 -62 14 41 0.15
-169 0 0 -61 36 11 9 42 20.3 53 317 -48 -61 5 36 -62 6 51 -60 37 59 -62 34 36 0.15
-168 0 0 -61 55 53 9 42 15.3 53 316 -48 -61 25 34 -62 26 15 -60 58 12 -62 53 45 0.15
-167 0 0 -62 14 49 9 42 10.5 52 315 -48 -61 44 46 -62 44 55 -61 17 40 -63 12 9 0.15
-166 0 0 -62 33 1 9 42 5.7 52 314 -48 -62 3 14 -63 2 51 -61 36 22 -63 29 51 0.15
-165 0 0 -62 50 31 9 42 1.1 51 313 -48 -62 21 0 -63 20 6 -61 54 21 -63 46 52 0.15
-164 0 0 -63 7 20 9 41 56.6 51 312 -48 -62 38 3 -63 36 39 -62 11 38 -64 3 12 0.15
-163 0 0 -63 23 29 9 41 52.2 50 311 -48 -62 54 27 -63 52 34 -62 28 14 -64 18 54 0.15
-162 0 0 -63 39 0 9 41 47.9 50 310 -48 -63 10 11 -64 7 51 -62 44 11 -64 33 58 0.15
-161 0 0 -63 53 53 9 41 43.7 49 309 -48 -63 25 18 -64 22 31 -62 59 30 -64 48 25 0.15
-160 0 0 -64 8 10 9 41 39.6 49 308 -48 -63 39 48 -64 36 35 -63 14 12 -65 2 18 0.15
-159 0 0 -64 21 52 9 41 35.6 48 307 -48 -63 53 42 -64 50 4 -63 28 17 -65 15 36 0.15
-158 0 0 -64 35 0 9 41 31.7 48 306 -48 -64 7 2 -65 3 0 -63 41 48 -65 28 21 0.15
-157 0 0 -64 47 35 9 41 27.8 47 305 -48 -64 19 48 -65 15 23 -63 54 44 -65 40 33 0.15
-156 0 0 -64 59 37 9 41 24.1 47 304 -48 -64 32 2 -65 27 14 -64 7 8 -65 52 14 0.15
-155 0 0 -65 11 8 9 41 20.4 46 303 -48 -64 43 44 -65 38 35 -64 18 59 -66 3 25 0.15
-154 0 0 -65 22 9 9 41 16.8 46 302 -48 -64 54 55 -65 49 25 -64 30 19 -66 14 6 0.15
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2020 Apr 28.0
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