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Updated: 2020 Apr 13, 20:10 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Jun 13 UT, the 114 km diameter asteroid (56) Melete will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Scutum for observers along a path across New Zealand, passing over Oamaru and Dunedin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.24 mag to 10.64 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 21.6 seconds. This event may not be observable visually.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 412-079690 by 56 Melete on 2020 Jun 13
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
179 31 44 -49 8 25 9 16 3.1 25 71 -48 177 53 3 -49 38 38 -178 55 51 -48 37 50 177 25 1 -49 46 47 -178 31 41 -48 29 28 1.72
179 9 38 -48 58 9 9 16 8.3 25 72 -48 177 30 34 -49 28 11 -179 17 36 -48 27 44 177 2 24 -49 36 16 -178 53 21 -48 19 25 1.72
178 47 25 -48 47 53 9 16 13.4 25 72 -48 177 7 56 -49 17 43 -179 39 28 -48 17 39 176 39 39 -49 25 46 -179 15 7 -48 9 22 1.72
178 25 4 -48 37 36 9 16 18.5 25 72 -48 176 45 9 -49 7 16 179 58 34 -48 7 33 176 16 44 -49 15 15 -179 36 59 -47 59 19 1.72
178 2 36 -48 27 19 9 16 23.7 25 73 -48 176 22 14 -48 56 47 179 36 30 -47 57 26 175 53 41 -49 4 43 -179 58 58 -47 49 15 1.72
177 40 0 -48 17 2 9 16 28.8 25 73 -48 175 59 9 -48 46 18 179 14 18 -47 47 20 175 30 27 -48 54 11 179 38 56 -47 39 11 1.71
177 17 15 -48 6 44 9 16 34.0 24 74 -48 175 35 55 -48 35 49 178 51 59 -47 37 12 175 7 4 -48 43 38 179 16 43 -47 29 6 1.71
176 54 22 -47 56 25 9 16 39.1 24 74 -47 175 12 30 -48 25 18 178 29 32 -47 27 5 174 43 30 -48 33 4 178 54 23 -47 19 1 1.71
176 31 19 -47 46 6 9 16 44.3 24 74 -47 174 48 55 -48 14 47 178 6 57 -47 16 56 174 19 45 -48 22 29 178 31 55 -47 8 56 1.71
176 8 7 -47 35 46 9 16 49.4 24 75 -47 174 25 9 -48 4 15 177 44 14 -47 6 47 173 55 49 -48 11 54 178 9 19 -46 58 50 1.71
175 44 46 -47 25 26 9 16 54.6 24 75 -47 174 1 12 -47 53 42 177 21 23 -46 56 38 173 31 40 -48 1 17 177 46 35 -46 48 43 1.71
175 21 14 -47 15 4 9 16 59.7 23 75 -47 173 37 2 -47 43 8 176 58 22 -46 46 28 173 7 20 -47 50 40 177 23 43 -46 38 36 1.71
174 57 31 -47 4 42 9 17 4.8 23 76 -46 173 12 41 -47 32 33 176 35 12 -46 36 17 172 42 46 -47 40 1 177 0 41 -46 28 28 1.71
174 33 37 -46 54 18 9 17 10.0 23 76 -46 172 48 6 -47 21 57 176 11 53 -46 26 5 172 17 58 -47 29 21 176 37 30 -46 18 19 1.71
174 9 32 -46 43 54 9 17 15.1 23 76 -46 172 23 17 -47 11 20 175 48 24 -46 15 52 171 52 57 -47 18 40 176 14 9 -46 8 9 1.71
173 45 14 -46 33 28 9 17 20.3 23 77 -46 171 58 15 -47 0 41 175 24 44 -46 5 39 171 27 40 -47 7 57 175 50 39 -45 57 59 1.71
173 20 44 -46 23 2 9 17 25.4 22 77 -46 171 32 57 -46 50 0 175 0 53 -45 55 24 171 2 8 -46 57 13 175 26 57 -45 47 47 1.71
172 56 0 -46 12 34 9 17 30.6 22 78 -45 171 7 24 -46 39 19 174 36 50 -45 45 8 170 36 19 -46 46 27 175 3 5 -45 37 35 1.71
172 31 3 -46 2 4 9 17 35.7 22 78 -45 170 41 35 -46 28 35 174 12 36 -45 34 51 170 10 14 -46 35 39 174 39 1 -45 27 21 1.71
172 5 52 -45 51 33 9 17 40.8 22 78 -45 170 15 28 -46 17 50 173 48 10 -45 24 33 169 43 50 -46 24 50 174 14 46 -45 17 6 1.71
171 40 25 -45 41 1 9 17 46.0 21 79 -45 169 49 3 -46 7 3 173 23 30 -45 14 14 169 17 7 -46 13 58 173 50 18 -45 6 50 1.71
171 14 42 -45 30 27 9 17 51.1 21 79 -44 169 22 20 -45 56 13 172 58 37 -45 3 53 168 50 5 -46 3 4 173 25 37 -44 56 33 1.71
170 48 43 -45 19 51 9 17 56.3 21 80 -44 168 55 17 -45 45 22 172 33 30 -44 53 31 168 22 41 -45 52 8 173 0 42 -44 46 14 1.71
170 22 26 -45 9 13 9 18 1.4 21 80 -44 168 27 52 -45 34 28 172 8 8 -44 43 7 167 54 56 -45 41 9 172 35 33 -44 35 53 1.71
169 55 51 -44 58 33 9 18 6.6 20 80 -44 168 0 6 -45 23 32 171 42 31 -44 32 41 167 26 46 -45 30 8 172 10 10 -44 25 31 1.71
169 28 57 -44 47 51 9 18 11.7 20 81 -43 167 31 56 -45 12 33 171 16 37 -44 22 14 166 58 12 -45 19 4 171 44 30 -44 15 8 1.71
169 1 43 -44 37 7 9 18 16.8 20 81 -43 167 3 21 -45 1 31 170 50 27 -44 11 45 166 29 12 -45 7 57 171 18 35 -44 4 42 1.71
168 34 7 -44 26 20 9 18 22.0 20 81 -43 166 34 20 -44 50 26 170 23 58 -44 1 14 165 59 44 -44 56 46 170 52 23 -43 54 15 1.71
168 6 9 -44 15 31 9 18 27.1 19 82 -43 166 4 52 -44 39 17 169 57 11 -43 50 40 165 29 46 -44 45 32 170 25 52 -43 43 45 1.71
167 37 47 -44 4 39 9 18 32.3 19 82 -42 165 34 53 -44 28 5 169 30 4 -43 40 4 164 59 17 -44 34 14 169 59 3 -43 33 14 1.71
167 9 0 -43 53 43 9 18 37.4 19 83 -42 165 4 23 -44 16 50 169 2 36 -43 29 26 164 28 13 -44 22 52 169 31 54 -43 22 40 1.72
166 39 45 -43 42 45 9 18 42.6 18 83 -42 164 33 20 -44 5 30 168 34 47 -43 18 45 163 56 34 -44 11 25 169 4 24 -43 12 3 1.72
166 10 3 -43 31 43 9 18 47.7 18 83 -41 164 1 40 -43 54 5 168 6 34 -43 8 2 163 24 15 -43 59 53 168 36 32 -43 1 24 1.72
165 39 50 -43 20 37 9 18 52.8 18 84 -41 163 29 21 -43 42 36 167 37 57 -42 57 15 162 51 15 -43 48 16 168 8 17 -42 50 42 1.72
165 9 6 -43 9 27 9 18 58.0 17 84 -41 162 56 20 -43 31 1 167 8 54 -42 46 25 162 17 29 -43 36 34 167 39 38 -42 39 57 1.72
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2020 Apr 13.0
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