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Updated: 2020 Mar 14, 22:47 UT
Event Rank : 28
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Apr 19 UT, the 17.0 km diameter asteroid (1977) Shura will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a large uncertainty path across eastern West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.31 mag to 15.94 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 281-113745 by 1977 Shura on 2020 Apr 19
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
129 1 7 - 9 16 38 20 35 26.0 54 222 -13 129 6 12 - 9 16 28 128 56 2 - 9 16 48 129 41 2 - 9 15 14 128 21 25 - 9 17 44 0.32
128 53 51 - 9 41 13 20 35 37.9 54 223 -14 128 58 56 - 9 41 4 128 48 46 - 9 41 22 129 33 47 - 9 39 51 128 14 8 - 9 42 16 0.32
128 46 40 -10 5 42 20 35 49.7 55 223 -14 128 51 45 -10 5 33 128 41 34 -10 5 51 129 26 37 -10 4 22 128 6 55 -10 6 43 0.32
128 39 33 -10 30 6 20 36 1.6 55 223 -14 128 44 39 -10 29 57 128 34 27 -10 30 14 129 19 32 -10 28 48 127 59 47 -10 31 4 0.32
128 32 31 -10 54 23 20 36 13.4 55 224 -14 128 37 37 -10 54 15 128 27 25 -10 54 32 129 12 31 -10 53 8 127 52 43 -10 55 20 0.32
128 25 33 -11 18 36 20 36 25.3 56 224 -14 128 30 39 -11 18 28 128 20 27 -11 18 44 129 5 35 -11 17 23 127 45 43 -11 19 31 0.32
128 18 40 -11 42 43 20 36 37.1 56 224 -14 128 23 46 -11 42 35 128 13 33 -11 42 51 128 58 44 -11 41 32 127 38 48 -11 43 36 0.32
128 11 50 -12 6 46 20 36 48.9 56 225 -14 128 16 57 -12 6 38 128 6 44 -12 6 53 128 51 57 -12 5 37 127 31 57 -12 7 36 0.33
128 5 6 -12 30 43 20 37 0.8 57 225 -14 128 10 13 -12 30 35 127 59 59 -12 30 50 128 45 14 -12 29 36 127 25 9 -12 31 32 0.33
127 58 25 -12 54 36 20 37 12.6 57 226 -15 128 3 32 -12 54 28 127 53 18 -12 54 43 128 38 36 -12 53 30 127 18 26 -12 55 22 0.33
127 51 48 -13 18 23 20 37 24.5 57 226 -15 127 56 56 -13 18 16 127 46 41 -13 18 30 128 32 1 -13 17 20 127 11 47 -13 19 8 0.33
127 45 15 -13 42 7 20 37 36.3 58 226 -15 127 50 23 -13 42 0 127 40 8 -13 42 13 128 25 31 -13 41 5 127 5 12 -13 42 50 0.33
127 38 47 -14 5 45 20 37 48.2 58 227 -15 127 43 55 -14 5 39 127 33 38 -14 5 52 128 19 5 -14 4 46 126 58 40 -14 6 27 0.33
127 32 22 -14 29 20 20 38 0.0 58 227 -15 127 37 30 -14 29 13 127 27 13 -14 29 26 128 12 43 -14 28 22 126 52 12 -14 29 59 0.33
127 26 1 -14 52 50 20 38 11.8 58 228 -15 127 31 10 -14 52 44 127 20 52 -14 52 56 128 6 26 -14 51 54 126 45 48 -14 53 28 0.33
127 19 44 -15 16 16 20 38 23.7 59 228 -15 127 24 53 -15 16 10 127 14 34 -15 16 22 128 0 12 -15 15 22 126 39 27 -15 16 52 0.33
127 13 30 -15 39 38 20 38 35.5 59 228 -15 127 18 40 -15 39 32 127 8 20 -15 39 44 127 54 2 -15 38 45 126 33 11 -15 40 13 0.33
127 7 20 -16 2 56 20 38 47.4 59 229 -15 127 12 31 -16 2 51 127 2 10 -16 3 1 127 47 55 -16 2 5 126 26 57 -16 3 29 0.34
127 1 14 -16 26 10 20 38 59.2 60 229 -16 127 6 25 -16 26 5 126 56 4 -16 26 16 127 41 53 -16 25 21 126 20 48 -16 26 42 0.34
126 55 12 -16 49 21 20 39 11.1 60 230 -16 127 0 23 -16 49 16 126 50 1 -16 49 26 127 35 54 -16 48 33 126 14 41 -16 49 51 0.34
126 49 13 -17 12 28 20 39 22.9 60 230 -16 126 54 25 -17 12 23 126 44 1 -17 12 33 127 29 59 -17 11 41 126 8 38 -17 12 57 0.34
126 43 18 -17 35 31 20 39 34.8 61 231 -16 126 48 30 -17 35 27 126 38 5 -17 35 36 127 24 8 -17 34 46 126 2 39 -17 35 59 0.34
126 37 26 -17 58 31 20 39 46.6 61 231 -16 126 42 39 -17 58 27 126 32 13 -17 58 36 127 18 21 -17 57 48 125 56 43 -17 58 57 0.34
126 31 38 -18 21 28 20 39 58.4 61 232 -16 126 36 51 -18 21 24 126 26 24 -18 21 32 127 12 37 -18 20 46 125 50 50 -18 21 53 0.34
126 25 53 -18 44 21 20 40 10.3 61 232 -16 126 31 7 -18 44 17 126 20 39 -18 44 25 127 6 56 -18 43 40 125 45 1 -18 44 45 0.34
126 20 11 -19 7 12 20 40 22.1 62 233 -16 126 25 26 -19 7 8 126 14 57 -19 7 15 127 1 20 -19 6 32 125 39 15 -19 7 34 0.34
126 14 33 -19 29 59 20 40 34.0 62 233 -16 126 19 49 -19 29 55 126 9 18 -19 30 2 126 55 46 -19 29 20 125 33 32 -19 30 20 0.34
126 8 58 -19 52 43 20 40 45.8 62 234 -16 126 14 14 -19 52 39 126 3 43 -19 52 46 126 50 17 -19 52 6 125 27 52 -19 53 3 0.35
126 3 27 -20 15 24 20 40 57.7 62 234 -16 126 8 44 -20 15 21 125 58 11 -20 15 27 126 44 50 -20 14 48 125 22 15 -20 15 43 0.35
125 57 59 -20 38 3 20 41 9.5 63 235 -17 126 3 16 -20 37 59 125 52 42 -20 38 6 126 39 28 -20 37 28 125 16 42 -20 38 20 0.35
125 52 34 -21 0 38 20 41 21.3 63 235 -17 125 57 52 -21 0 35 125 47 17 -21 0 41 126 34 8 -21 0 4 125 11 12 -21 0 54 0.35
125 47 13 -21 23 11 20 41 33.2 63 236 -17 125 52 32 -21 23 8 125 41 54 -21 23 14 126 28 52 -21 22 38 125 5 45 -21 23 26 0.35
125 41 55 -21 45 41 20 41 45.0 63 237 -17 125 47 14 -21 45 38 125 36 35 -21 45 44 126 23 40 -21 45 10 125 0 21 -21 45 55 0.35
125 36 40 -22 8 9 20 41 56.9 64 237 -17 125 42 0 -22 8 6 125 31 20 -22 8 12 126 18 31 -22 7 39 124 55 0 -22 8 22 0.35
125 31 28 -22 30 35 20 42 8.7 64 238 -17 125 36 49 -22 30 32 125 26 7 -22 30 37 126 13 25 -22 30 5 124 49 43 -22 30 47 0.35
125 26 20 -22 52 58 20 42 20.6 64 238 -17 125 31 41 -22 52 55 125 20 58 -22 53 0 126 8 23 -22 52 29 124 44 28 -22 53 9 0.35
125 21 14 -23 15 18 20 42 32.4 64 239 -17 125 26 37 -23 15 16 125 15 52 -23 15 21 126 3 24 -23 14 51 124 39 16 -23 15 28 0.35
125 16 12 -23 37 37 20 42 44.2 64 240 -17 125 21 36 -23 37 34 125 10 49 -23 37 39 125 58 28 -23 37 10 124 34 8 -23 37 46 0.36
125 11 13 -23 59 53 20 42 56.1 65 240 -17 125 16 38 -23 59 51 125 5 49 -23 59 55 125 53 36 -23 59 27 124 29 2 -24 0 1 0.36
125 6 18 -24 22 7 20 43 7.9 65 241 -17 125 11 43 -24 22 5 125 0 53 -24 22 9 125 48 47 -24 21 42 124 24 0 -24 22 14 0.36
125 1 25 -24 44 19 20 43 19.8 65 242 -17 125 6 51 -24 44 17 124 55 59 -24 44 21 125 44 1 -24 43 55 124 19 1 -24 44 26 0.36
124 56 36 -25 6 29 20 43 31.6 65 242 -17 125 2 3 -25 6 27 124 51 9 -25 6 31 125 39 19 -25 6 6 124 14 4 -25 6 35 0.36
124 51 50 -25 28 38 20 43 43.5 65 243 -17 124 57 17 -25 28 36 124 46 22 -25 28 39 125 34 40 -25 28 15 124 9 11 -25 28 43 0.36
124 47 7 -25 50 44 20 43 55.3 66 244 -17 124 52 35 -25 50 42 124 41 38 -25 50 46 125 30 4 -25 50 22 124 4 20 -25 50 48 0.36
124 42 27 -26 12 49 20 44 7.1 66 245 -18 124 47 56 -26 12 47 124 36 57 -26 12 50 125 25 32 -26 12 28 123 59 33 -26 12 52 0.36
124 37 50 -26 34 52 20 44 19.0 66 245 -18 124 43 21 -26 34 50 124 32 20 -26 34 53 125 21 3 -26 34 32 123 54 49 -26 34 54 0.36
124 33 17 -26 56 53 20 44 30.8 66 246 -18 124 38 48 -26 56 52 124 27 45 -26 56 54 125 16 37 -26 56 34 123 50 7 -26 56 55 0.36
124 28 46 -27 18 53 20 44 42.7 66 247 -18 124 34 19 -27 18 51 124 23 14 -27 18 54 125 12 15 -27 18 34 123 45 29 -27 18 54 0.37
124 24 19 -27 40 51 20 44 54.5 66 248 -18 124 29 53 -27 40 50 124 18 46 -27 40 52 125 7 56 -27 40 33 123 40 54 -27 40 52 0.37
124 19 55 -28 2 48 20 45 6.4 67 248 -18 124 25 30 -28 2 47 124 14 21 -28 2 49 125 3 41 -28 2 30 123 36 21 -28 2 48 0.37
124 15 35 -28 24 43 20 45 18.2 67 249 -18 124 21 10 -28 24 42 124 9 59 -28 24 44 124 59 29 -28 24 26 123 31 52 -28 24 42 0.37
124 11 17 -28 46 37 20 45 30.1 67 250 -18 124 16 54 -28 46 36 124 5 40 -28 46 38 124 55 20 -28 46 21 123 27 26 -28 46 36 0.37
124 7 3 -29 8 30 20 45 41.9 67 251 -18 124 12 41 -29 8 29 124 1 25 -29 8 31 124 51 14 -29 8 14 123 23 3 -29 8 28 0.37
124 2 52 -29 30 22 20 45 53.7 67 252 -18 124 8 31 -29 30 21 123 57 13 -29 30 22 124 47 12 -29 30 6 123 18 43 -29 30 19 0.37
123 58 44 -29 52 12 20 46 5.6 67 252 -18 124 4 24 -29 52 11 123 53 4 -29 52 13 124 43 14 -29 51 57 123 14 26 -29 52 9 0.37
123 54 39 -30 14 1 20 46 17.4 67 253 -18 124 0 21 -30 14 0 123 48 58 -30 14 2 124 39 19 -30 13 47 123 10 12 -30 13 58 0.37
123 50 38 -30 35 49 20 46 29.3 68 254 -18 123 56 21 -30 35 49 123 44 55 -30 35 50 124 35 27 -30 35 35 123 6 1 -30 35 45 0.37
123 46 40 -30 57 37 20 46 41.1 68 255 -18 123 52 25 -30 57 36 123 40 56 -30 57 37 124 31 39 -30 57 23 123 1 53 -30 57 32 0.38
123 42 46 -31 19 23 20 46 53.0 68 256 -18 123 48 31 -31 19 22 123 37 0 -31 19 23 124 27 55 -31 19 10 122 57 49 -31 19 18 0.38
123 38 55 -31 41 8 20 47 4.8 68 257 -18 123 44 41 -31 41 8 123 33 8 -31 41 9 124 24 14 -31 40 55 122 53 47 -31 41 3 0.38
123 35 7 -32 2 53 20 47 16.6 68 257 -18 123 40 55 -32 2 52 123 29 19 -32 2 53 124 20 36 -32 2 40 122 49 49 -32 2 47 0.38
123 31 22 -32 24 37 20 47 28.5 68 258 -18 123 37 12 -32 24 36 123 25 33 -32 24 37 124 17 3 -32 24 24 122 45 54 -32 24 30 0.38
123 27 41 -32 46 20 20 47 40.3 68 259 -18 123 33 32 -32 46 19 123 21 51 -32 46 20 124 13 32 -32 46 8 122 42 2 -32 46 13 0.38
123 24 4 -33 8 2 20 47 52.2 68 260 -18 123 29 56 -33 8 1 123 18 12 -33 8 2 124 10 6 -33 7 50 122 38 14 -33 7 55 0.38
123 20 30 -33 29 44 20 48 4.0 68 261 -18 123 26 23 -33 29 43 123 14 36 -33 29 44 124 6 43 -33 29 32 122 34 28 -33 29 36 0.38
123 16 59 -33 51 25 20 48 15.9 68 262 -18 123 22 54 -33 51 25 123 11 4 -33 51 25 124 3 24 -33 51 14 122 30 47 -33 51 17 0.38
123 13 32 -34 13 6 20 48 27.7 68 263 -18 123 19 29 -34 13 5 123 7 36 -34 13 6 124 0 9 -34 12 55 122 27 8 -34 12 58 0.38
123 10 9 -34 34 46 20 48 39.5 68 264 -18 123 16 7 -34 34 45 123 4 11 -34 34 46 123 56 58 -34 34 35 122 23 33 -34 34 38 0.39
123 6 49 -34 56 26 20 48 51.4 68 265 -18 123 12 49 -34 56 25 123 0 50 -34 56 26 123 53 50 -34 56 15 122 20 1 -34 56 17 0.39
123 3 33 -35 18 5 20 49 3.2 68 266 -18 123 9 35 -35 18 5 122 57 32 -35 18 5 123 50 46 -35 17 54 122 16 33 -35 17 57 0.39
123 0 21 -35 39 44 20 49 15.1 68 266 -18 123 6 24 -35 39 44 122 54 19 -35 39 44 123 47 47 -35 39 34 122 13 8 -35 39 36 0.39
122 57 13 -36 1 23 20 49 26.9 68 267 -18 123 3 17 -36 1 23 122 51 8 -36 1 23 123 44 51 -36 1 13 122 9 47 -36 1 14 0.39
122 54 8 -36 23 2 20 49 38.8 68 268 -18 123 0 14 -36 23 2 122 48 2 -36 23 2 123 42 0 -36 22 52 122 6 29 -36 22 53 0.39
122 51 7 -36 44 41 20 49 50.6 68 269 -18 122 57 15 -36 44 40 122 45 0 -36 44 40 123 39 12 -36 44 30 122 3 15 -36 44 32 0.39
122 48 11 -37 6 19 20 50 2.5 68 270 -18 122 54 20 -37 6 19 122 42 1 -37 6 19 123 36 29 -37 6 9 122 0 5 -37 6 10 0.39
122 45 18 -37 27 57 20 50 14.3 68 271 -18 122 51 29 -37 27 57 122 39 7 -37 27 57 123 33 50 -37 27 47 121 56 58 -37 27 48 0.39
122 42 29 -37 49 36 20 50 26.1 68 272 -18 122 48 42 -37 49 36 122 36 16 -37 49 36 123 31 16 -37 49 25 121 53 55 -37 49 27 0.39
122 39 44 -38 11 14 20 50 38.0 68 273 -18 122 45 59 -38 11 14 122 33 29 -38 11 14 123 28 45 -38 11 4 121 50 56 -38 11 5 0.39
122 37 4 -38 32 53 20 50 49.8 68 274 -18 122 43 21 -38 32 53 122 30 47 -38 32 53 123 26 20 -38 32 42 121 48 1 -38 32 44 0.40
122 34 28 -38 54 32 20 51 1.7 68 275 -18 122 40 46 -38 54 32 122 28 9 -38 54 32 123 23 58 -38 54 21 121 45 10 -38 54 23 0.40
122 31 56 -39 16 11 20 51 13.5 68 276 -18 122 38 16 -39 16 11 122 25 35 -39 16 11 123 21 42 -39 16 0 121 42 23 -39 16 2 0.40
122 29 28 -39 37 50 20 51 25.4 68 277 -18 122 35 51 -39 37 50 122 23 6 -39 37 50 123 19 30 -39 37 39 121 39 40 -39 37 41 0.40
122 27 5 -39 59 30 20 51 37.2 68 277 -18 122 33 30 -39 59 29 122 20 40 -39 59 30 123 17 23 -39 59 18 121 37 1 -39 59 21 0.40
122 24 46 -40 21 10 20 51 49.0 68 278 -18 122 31 13 -40 21 9 122 18 20 -40 21 10 123 15 20 -40 20 58 121 34 26 -40 21 1 0.40
122 22 33 -40 42 50 20 52 0.9 68 279 -18 122 29 2 -40 42 50 122 16 4 -40 42 50 123 13 23 -40 42 38 121 31 56 -40 42 42 0.40
122 20 23 -41 4 31 20 52 12.7 68 280 -18 122 26 54 -41 4 30 122 13 52 -41 4 31 123 11 30 -41 4 18 121 29 30 -41 4 23 0.40
122 18 19 -41 26 12 20 52 24.6 68 281 -18 122 24 52 -41 26 12 122 11 46 -41 26 12 123 9 43 -41 25 59 121 27 8 -41 26 4 0.40
122 16 19 -41 47 54 20 52 36.4 68 282 -18 122 22 55 -41 47 53 122 9 44 -41 47 54 123 8 1 -41 47 40 121 24 51 -41 47 47 0.40
122 14 25 -42 9 36 20 52 48.3 68 283 -18 122 21 3 -42 9 36 122 7 47 -42 9 37 123 6 25 -42 9 23 121 22 39 -42 9 29 0.40
122 12 35 -42 31 20 20 53 0.1 68 284 -18 122 19 16 -42 31 19 122 5 55 -42 31 20 123 4 53 -42 31 5 121 20 31 -42 31 13 0.40
122 10 51 -42 53 4 20 53 11.9 68 284 -18 122 17 34 -42 53 3 122 4 9 -42 53 4 123 3 28 -42 52 49 121 18 28 -42 52 57 0.40
122 9 12 -43 14 48 20 53 23.8 67 285 -18 122 15 57 -43 14 47 122 2 27 -43 14 49 123 2 8 -43 14 33 121 16 30 -43 14 42 0.41
122 7 39 -43 36 34 20 53 35.6 67 286 -18 122 14 26 -43 36 33 122 0 51 -43 36 34 123 0 54 -43 36 18 121 14 38 -43 36 28 0.41
122 6 11 -43 58 20 20 53 47.5 67 287 -18 122 13 1 -43 58 19 121 59 21 -43 58 21 122 59 45 -43 58 3 121 12 50 -43 58 15 0.41
122 4 48 -44 20 7 20 53 59.3 67 288 -18 122 11 41 -44 20 6 121 57 56 -44 20 8 122 58 43 -44 19 50 121 11 8 -44 20 3 0.41
Uncertainty in time = +/- 18 secs
Prediction of 2020 Mar 14.0
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