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Updated: 2020 Mar 14, 22:35 UT
Event Rank : 69
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Apr 14 UT, the 49 km diameter asteroid (312) Pierretta will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across central Queensland, north-western New South Wales and central South Australia, passing near Sarina, Mackay, Port Pirie and Maitland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.92 mag to 12.59 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 302-082846 by 312 Pierretta on 2020 Apr 14
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
.. .. .. 23 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. -163 20 24 ... .. .. -163 58 38 ... .. .. ....
-164 32 27 22 0 0 18 15 22.9 2 237 21 -164 58 38 -164 6 3 -165 35 35 -163 28 11 ....
-166 7 13 21 0 0 18 15 24.5 3 236 20 -166 32 35 -165 41 40 -167 8 23 -165 5 2 0.22
-167 38 4 20 0 0 18 15 27.1 5 236 18 -168 2 43 -167 13 17 -168 37 31 -166 37 45 0.22
-169 5 27 19 0 0 18 15 30.6 7 235 17 -169 29 27 -168 41 20 -170 3 21 -168 6 46 0.22
-170 29 43 18 0 0 18 15 35.0 9 235 16 -170 53 7 -170 6 11 -171 26 13 -169 32 30 0.22
-171 51 10 17 0 0 18 15 40.3 10 234 14 -172 14 3 -171 28 10 -172 46 25 -170 55 16 0.22
-173 10 4 16 0 0 18 15 46.3 12 234 13 -173 32 29 -172 47 33 -174 4 11 -172 15 21 0.22
-174 26 39 15 0 0 18 15 53.1 13 234 12 -174 48 38 -174 4 34 -175 19 46 -173 33 0 0.22
-175 41 8 14 0 0 18 16 0.6 15 233 10 -176 2 44 -175 19 27 -176 33 19 -174 48 27 0.22
-176 53 41 13 0 0 18 16 8.7 16 233 9 -177 14 56 -176 32 22 -177 45 1 -176 1 53 0.22
-178 4 28 12 0 0 18 16 17.5 18 233 8 -178 25 23 -177 43 28 -178 55 2 -177 13 29 0.22
-179 13 38 11 0 0 18 16 27.0 19 233 7 -179 34 16 -178 52 56 179 56 30 -178 23 23 0.22
179 38 41 10 0 0 18 16 37.0 21 233 5 179 18 19 179 59 7 178 49 27 -179 31 43 0.22
178 32 23 9 0 0 18 16 47.6 22 233 4 178 12 16 178 52 33 177 43 44 179 21 22 0.22
177 27 20 8 0 0 18 16 58.8 24 233 3 177 7 26 177 47 17 176 39 13 178 15 46 0.22
176 23 27 7 0 0 18 17 10.5 25 232 2 176 3 45 176 43 12 175 35 49 177 11 22 0.22
175 20 38 6 0 0 18 17 22.7 26 232 1 175 1 7 175 40 12 174 33 26 176 8 6 0.22
174 18 49 5 0 0 18 17 35.4 28 232 0 173 59 28 174 38 12 173 32 0 175 5 52 0.22
173 17 53 4 0 0 18 17 48.7 29 232 -2 172 58 42 173 37 8 172 31 27 174 4 34 0.22
172 17 48 3 0 0 18 18 2.4 30 233 -3 171 58 45 172 36 55 171 31 41 173 4 9 0.22
171 18 30 2 0 0 18 18 16.5 32 233 -4 170 59 33 171 37 28 170 32 40 172 4 32 0.22
170 19 53 1 0 0 18 18 31.1 33 233 -5 170 1 3 170 38 45 169 34 19 171 5 39 0.23
169 21 55 0 0 0 18 18 46.2 34 233 -6 169 3 11 169 40 41 168 36 34 170 7 27 0.23
168 24 33 - 1 0 0 18 19 1.6 36 233 -7 168 5 53 168 43 14 167 39 24 169 9 52 0.23
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
129 0 0 -41 25 59 18 33 32.5 74 314 -38 -41 6 2 -41 46 0 -40 37 44 -42 14 34 0.28
128 0 0 -42 13 34 18 33 52.8 74 319 -38 -41 53 42 -42 33 28 -41 25 33 -43 1 54 0.28
127 0 0 -43 0 5 18 34 12.7 74 323 -38 -42 40 20 -43 19 53 -42 12 19 -43 48 9 0.28
126 0 0 -43 45 32 18 34 32.2 74 327 -39 -43 25 54 -44 5 14 -42 58 2 -44 33 21 0.28
125 0 0 -44 29 56 18 34 51.4 74 331 -39 -44 10 24 -44 49 31 -43 42 42 -45 17 28 0.28
124 0 0 -45 13 17 18 35 10.2 73 335 -39 -44 53 52 -45 32 45 -44 26 19 -46 0 32 0.28
123 0 0 -45 55 34 18 35 28.6 73 338 -39 -45 36 16 -46 14 55 -45 8 54 -46 42 33 0.28
122 0 0 -46 36 49 18 35 46.7 72 342 -39 -46 17 38 -46 56 3 -45 50 26 -47 23 30 0.29
121 0 0 -47 17 2 18 36 4.4 72 345 -40 -46 57 58 -47 36 8 -46 30 56 -48 3 24 0.29
120 0 0 -47 56 13 18 36 21.7 71 348 -40 -47 37 16 -48 15 12 -47 10 25 -48 42 17 0.29
119 0 0 -48 34 22 18 36 38.6 71 351 -40 -48 15 34 -48 53 14 -47 48 53 -49 20 9 0.29
118 0 0 -49 11 32 18 36 55.2 70 354 -40 -48 52 51 -49 30 16 -48 26 20 -49 57 0 0.29
117 0 0 -49 47 42 18 37 11.4 70 356 -40 -49 29 8 -50 6 18 -49 2 49 -50 32 51 0.29
116 0 0 -50 22 53 18 37 27.2 69 359 -40 -50 4 27 -50 41 21 -49 38 18 -51 7 43 0.29
115 0 0 -50 57 6 18 37 42.7 69 1 -40 -50 38 48 -51 15 27 -50 12 50 -51 41 37 0.29
114 0 0 -51 30 22 18 37 57.8 68 3 -40 -51 12 12 -51 48 35 -50 46 25 -52 14 34 0.29
113 0 0 -52 2 42 18 38 12.6 68 5 -40 -51 44 40 -52 20 47 -51 19 4 -52 46 35 0.29
112 0 0 -52 34 7 18 38 27.1 67 7 -40 -52 16 13 -52 52 5 -51 50 48 -53 17 41 0.29
111 0 0 -53 4 38 18 38 41.2 66 9 -40 -52 46 51 -53 22 28 -52 21 37 -53 47 53 0.29
110 0 0 -53 34 16 18 38 55.1 66 11 -40 -53 16 37 -53 51 58 -52 51 34 -54 17 12 0.29
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2020 Mar 14.0
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