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Updated: 2020 JAN 28, 17:38 UT
Event Rank : 83
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Mar 29 UT, the 75.2 km diameter asteroid (664) Judith will occult a 10.2 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a path across Australia from Cann River across eastern Vic, New South Wales just west of Canberra and Bourke and south-western Queensland to north-eastern Northern Territory east of Darwin in evening twilight.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.51 mag to 15.71 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 13.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 0815-01159-1 by 664 Judith on 2020 Mar 29
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
153 39 54 -46 0 0 10 12 59.8 32 2 -27 154 16 36 153 3 8 154 52 21 152 27 10 0.62
153 7 54 -45 0 0 10 13 12.8 33 3 -27 153 44 2 152 31 42 154 19 15 151 56 17 0.62
152 35 52 -44 0 0 10 13 26.2 34 4 -27 153 11 28 152 0 12 153 46 9 151 25 17 0.62
152 3 46 -43 0 0 10 13 40.0 35 4 -27 152 38 52 151 28 35 153 13 4 150 54 11 0.62
151 31 35 -42 0 0 10 13 54.1 36 5 -27 152 6 13 150 56 53 152 39 57 150 22 55 0.62
150 59 18 -41 0 0 10 14 8.5 37 6 -27 151 33 29 150 25 2 152 6 47 149 51 30 0.62
150 26 53 -40 0 0 10 14 23.4 38 6 -27 151 0 39 149 53 2 151 33 32 149 19 55 0.62
149 54 19 -39 0 0 10 14 38.5 39 7 -27 150 27 41 149 20 52 151 0 12 148 48 8 0.62
149 21 36 -38 0 0 10 14 54.1 39 8 -27 149 54 36 148 48 31 150 26 44 148 16 8 0.62
148 48 41 -37 0 0 10 15 10.0 40 8 -27 149 21 21 148 15 57 149 53 9 147 43 55 0.62
148 15 35 -36 0 0 10 15 26.2 41 9 -27 148 47 55 147 43 11 149 19 24 147 11 27 0.62
147 42 16 -35 0 0 10 15 42.7 42 10 -27 148 14 18 147 10 10 148 45 29 146 38 44 0.62
147 8 43 -34 0 0 10 15 59.6 43 11 -27 147 40 27 146 36 54 148 11 22 146 5 45 0.62
146 34 55 -33 0 0 10 16 16.8 44 11 -27 147 6 23 146 3 22 147 37 2 145 32 29 0.61
146 0 51 -32 0 0 10 16 34.4 45 12 -26 146 32 5 145 29 33 147 2 28 144 58 54 0.61
145 26 30 -31 0 0 10 16 52.3 46 13 -26 145 57 30 144 55 26 146 27 40 144 25 1 0.61
144 51 52 -30 0 0 10 17 10.4 47 14 -26 145 22 38 144 21 0 145 52 36 143 50 47 0.61
144 16 54 -29 0 0 10 17 28.9 48 15 -26 144 47 28 143 46 14 145 17 14 143 16 12 0.61
143 41 36 -28 0 0 10 17 47.7 48 16 -25 144 12 0 143 11 7 144 41 35 142 41 16 0.61
143 5 57 -27 0 0 10 18 6.8 49 17 -25 143 36 11 142 35 38 144 5 36 142 5 56 0.61
142 29 56 -26 0 0 10 18 26.2 50 18 -25 143 0 1 141 59 46 143 29 17 141 30 13 0.61
141 53 32 -25 0 0 10 18 45.9 51 20 -25 142 23 29 141 23 30 142 52 37 140 54 4 0.61
141 16 44 -24 0 0 10 19 5.9 52 21 -24 141 46 33 140 46 48 142 15 34 140 17 30 0.61
140 39 30 -23 0 0 10 19 26.2 52 22 -24 141 9 13 140 9 41 141 38 8 139 40 28 0.60
140 1 49 -22 0 0 10 19 46.7 53 23 -23 140 31 27 139 32 5 141 0 17 139 2 58 0.60
139 23 41 -21 0 0 10 20 7.5 54 25 -23 139 53 14 138 54 1 140 21 59 138 24 58 0.60
138 45 4 -20 0 0 10 20 28.6 54 26 -23 139 14 33 138 15 28 139 43 15 137 46 28 0.60
138 5 56 -19 0 0 10 20 50.0 55 28 -22 138 35 23 137 36 22 139 4 1 137 7 25 0.60
137 26 16 -18 0 0 10 21 11.6 56 29 -22 137 55 41 136 56 45 138 24 18 136 27 49 0.60
136 46 4 -17 0 0 10 21 33.5 56 31 -21 137 15 27 136 16 33 137 44 3 135 47 38 0.60
136 5 16 -16 0 0 10 21 55.6 57 33 -21 136 34 40 135 35 45 137 3 15 135 6 50 0.59
135 23 53 -15 0 0 10 22 18.0 57 34 -20 135 53 17 134 54 21 136 21 53 134 25 24 0.59
134 41 51 -14 0 0 10 22 40.6 58 36 -19 135 11 17 134 12 18 135 39 55 133 43 19 0.59
133 59 10 -13 0 0 10 23 3.4 58 38 -19 134 28 39 133 29 34 134 57 19 133 0 32 0.59
133 15 47 -12 0 0 10 23 26.5 59 40 -18 133 45 20 132 46 7 134 14 3 132 17 2 0.59
132 31 41 -11 0 0 10 23 49.8 59 42 -18 133 1 19 132 1 56 133 30 6 131 32 46 0.59
131 46 50 -10 0 0 10 24 13.3 59 44 -17 132 16 33 131 16 59 132 45 25 130 47 42 0.58
131 1 11 - 9 0 0 10 24 37.1 60 46 -16 131 31 0 130 31 13 131 59 59 130 1 49 0.58
130 14 41 - 8 0 0 10 25 1.0 60 48 -16 130 44 39 129 44 35 131 13 45 129 15 4 0.58
129 27 20 - 7 0 0 10 25 25.2 60 50 -15 129 57 26 128 57 4 130 26 40 128 27 23 0.58
128 39 3 - 6 0 0 10 25 49.6 60 52 -14 129 9 19 128 8 37 129 38 43 127 38 45 0.58
127 49 47 - 5 0 0 10 26 14.2 60 55 -13 128 20 15 127 19 10 128 49 50 126 49 6 0.58
126 59 31 - 4 0 0 10 26 39.0 60 57 -13 127 30 11 126 28 40 127 59 58 125 58 23 0.58
126 8 10 - 3 0 0 10 27 4.0 60 59 -12 126 39 4 125 37 5 127 9 4 125 6 33 0.57
125 15 41 - 2 0 0 10 27 29.1 60 61 -11 125 46 51 124 44 19 126 17 6 124 13 32 0.57
124 21 59 - 1 0 0 10 27 54.5 59 63 -10 124 53 26 123 50 20 125 23 58 123 19 14 0.57
123 27 1 0 0 0 10 28 20.1 59 65 -9 123 58 47 122 55 3 124 29 37 122 23 37 0.57
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2020 Jan 28.0
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