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Updated: 2020 JAN 28, 17:27 UT
Event Rank : 57
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Mar 24 UT, the 56.6 km diameter asteroid (1282) Utopia will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Norma for observers along a quite narrow path across Australia from Cooktown across western Queensland, south-eastern Northern Territory, north-western South Australia and southern Western Australia to Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.66 mag to 16.21 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 237-096977 by 1282 Utopia on 2020 Mar 24
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
147 55 59 0 0 0 14 22 52.6 25 138 -87 147 27 28 148 24 10 146 23 29 149 24 57 -1.54
147 50 50 - 1 0 0 14 23 2.2 25 138 -88 147 22 16 148 19 3 146 18 12 149 19 55 -1.54
147 44 2 - 2 0 0 14 23 12.2 26 138 -88 147 15 24 148 12 19 146 11 11 149 13 19 -1.54
147 35 35 - 3 0 0 14 23 22.4 27 137 -88 147 6 52 148 3 58 146 2 25 149 5 10 -1.54
147 25 28 - 4 0 0 14 23 32.9 27 137 -87 146 56 37 147 53 58 145 51 52 148 55 25 -1.53
147 13 40 - 5 0 0 14 23 43.7 28 136 -86 146 44 39 147 42 19 145 39 31 148 44 5 -1.53
147 0 7 - 6 0 0 14 23 54.7 29 136 -86 146 30 55 147 28 57 145 25 21 148 31 6 -1.53
146 44 49 - 7 0 0 14 24 6.0 29 136 -85 146 15 23 147 13 52 145 9 17 148 16 28 -1.53
146 27 41 - 8 0 0 14 24 17.5 30 135 -84 145 58 0 146 56 59 144 51 17 148 0 7 -1.53
146 8 41 - 9 0 0 14 24 29.3 30 135 -83 145 38 42 146 38 17 144 31 17 147 42 0 -1.53
145 47 45 -10 0 0 14 24 41.5 31 134 -82 145 17 25 146 17 41 144 9 12 147 22 5 -1.52
145 24 49 -11 0 0 14 24 53.8 31 134 -81 144 54 6 145 55 6 143 44 57 147 0 16 -1.52
144 59 46 -12 0 0 14 25 6.5 32 133 -80 144 28 37 145 30 29 143 18 26 146 36 30 -1.52
144 32 32 -13 0 0 14 25 19.4 32 133 -79 144 0 53 145 3 43 142 49 33 146 10 42 -1.52
144 2 59 -14 0 0 14 25 32.7 32 132 -78 143 30 46 144 34 41 142 18 8 145 42 45 -1.51
143 30 58 -15 0 0 14 25 46.3 33 132 -77 142 58 9 144 3 16 141 44 2 145 12 33 -1.51
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
142 0 0 -17 28 45 14 26 21.3 33 130 -74 -16 36 28 -18 18 57 -14 32 30 -20 3 1 -1.50
141 0 0 -18 53 17 14 26 42.2 34 129 -73 -18 4 44 -19 40 9 -16 10 56 -21 18 0 -1.50
140 0 0 -20 9 27 14 27 1.7 34 129 -71 -19 23 51 -20 53 38 -17 37 53 -22 26 23 -1.50
139 0 0 -21 18 37 14 27 20.0 34 128 -70 -20 35 27 -22 0 35 -18 55 43 -23 29 4 -1.50
138 0 0 -22 21 48 14 27 37.3 34 127 -68 -21 40 39 -23 1 55 -20 6 2 -24 26 46 -1.50
137 0 0 -23 19 47 14 27 53.7 34 127 -67 -22 40 21 -23 58 18 -21 10 1 -25 20 3 -1.50
136 0 0 -24 13 10 14 28 9.3 33 127 -66 -23 35 12 -24 50 19 -22 8 30 -26 9 20 -1.50
135 0 0 -25 2 26 14 28 24.2 33 126 -65 -24 25 44 -25 38 24 -23 2 10 -26 55 1 -1.50
134 0 0 -25 47 59 14 28 38.5 33 126 -64 -25 12 24 -26 22 54 -23 51 33 -27 37 25 -1.50
133 0 0 -26 30 9 14 28 52.2 33 126 -63 -25 55 33 -27 4 8 -24 37 4 -28 16 46 -1.50
132 0 0 -27 9 12 14 29 5.4 32 125 -62 -26 35 28 -27 42 21 -25 19 5 -28 53 20 -1.50
131 0 0 -27 45 23 14 29 18.0 32 125 -61 -27 12 25 -28 17 48 -25 57 53 -29 27 16 -1.50
130 0 0 -28 18 52 14 29 30.2 32 125 -60 -27 46 36 -28 50 38 -26 33 42 -29 58 46 -1.50
129 0 0 -28 49 51 14 29 42.0 31 125 -59 -28 18 12 -29 21 2 -27 6 47 -30 27 57 -1.50
128 0 0 -29 18 29 14 29 53.4 31 125 -59 -28 47 23 -29 49 8 -27 37 16 -30 54 58 -1.50
127 0 0 -29 44 53 14 30 4.4 30 125 -58 -29 14 16 -30 15 3 -28 5 20 -31 19 55 -1.50
126 0 0 -30 9 10 14 30 15.0 30 125 -57 -29 39 0 -30 38 55 -28 31 7 -31 42 54 -1.50
125 0 0 -30 31 26 14 30 25.4 29 125 -56 -30 1 40 -31 0 48 -28 54 43 -32 4 0 -1.50
124 0 0 -30 51 47 14 30 35.4 29 125 -55 -30 22 22 -31 20 48 -29 16 15 -32 23 18 -1.50
123 0 0 -31 10 16 14 30 45.1 28 125 -55 -30 41 10 -31 39 0 -29 35 47 -32 40 52 -1.50
122 0 0 -31 26 58 14 30 54.5 28 125 -54 -30 58 9 -31 55 26 -29 53 25 -32 56 44 -1.50
121 0 0 -31 41 57 14 31 3.7 27 125 -53 -31 13 22 -32 10 10 -30 9 12 -33 10 59 -1.51
120 0 0 -31 55 14 14 31 12.6 27 125 -53 -31 26 52 -32 23 15 -30 23 12 -33 23 39 -1.51
119 0 0 -32 6 54 14 31 21.3 26 126 -52 -31 38 43 -32 34 44 -30 35 28 -33 34 46 -1.51
118 0 0 -32 16 57 14 31 29.7 26 126 -51 -31 48 55 -32 44 39 -30 46 2 -33 44 23 -1.51
117 0 0 -32 25 27 14 31 38.0 25 126 -50 -31 57 32 -32 53 1 -30 54 56 -33 52 30 -1.51
116 0 0 -32 32 23 14 31 46.0 25 126 -50 -32 4 35 -32 59 52 -31 2 12 -33 59 9 -1.51
115 0 0 -32 37 49 14 31 53.7 24 127 -49 -32 10 4 -33 5 13 -31 7 51 -34 4 22 -1.52
114 0 0 -32 41 43 14 32 1.3 23 127 -49 -32 14 1 -33 9 5 -31 11 54 -34 8 8 -1.52
113 0 0 -32 44 8 14 32 8.7 23 127 -48 -32 16 27 -33 11 29 -31 14 23 -34 10 29 -1.52
112 0 0 -32 45 2 14 32 15.9 22 127 -47 -32 17 21 -33 12 24 -31 15 16 -34 11 25 -1.52
111 0 0 -32 44 27 14 32 22.9 21 128 -47 -32 16 44 -33 11 50 -31 14 34 -34 10 56 -1.53
110 0 0 -32 42 22 14 32 29.7 21 128 -46 -32 14 35 -33 9 48 -31 12 16 -34 9 0 -1.53
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2020 Jan 28.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
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