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Updated: 2020 JAN 12, 19:47 UT
Event Rank : 90
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Mar 06 UT, the 75.7 km diameter asteroid (850) Altona will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a path across Australia from Portland across western Victoria and New South Wales, eastern South Australia and The Northern Territory to Darwin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.99 mag to 14.13 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 516-056052 by 850 Altona on 2020 Mar 6
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
138 38 30 -44 0 0 14 7 31.4 19 48 -40 139 32 16 137 43 37 140 15 51 136 57 24 -1.52
138 59 56 -43 0 0 14 7 38.1 20 48 -41 139 52 23 138 6 26 140 34 55 137 21 25 -1.52
139 18 12 -42 0 0 14 7 45.1 21 48 -42 140 9 27 138 25 57 140 51 3 137 42 1 -1.52
139 33 31 -41 0 0 14 7 52.3 22 48 -43 140 23 41 138 42 23 141 4 26 137 59 26 -1.52
139 46 4 -40 0 0 14 7 59.8 23 48 -44 140 35 16 138 55 58 141 15 14 138 13 54 -1.52
139 56 2 -39 0 0 14 8 7.4 23 48 -45 140 44 21 139 6 52 141 23 36 138 25 36 -1.53
140 3 34 -38 0 0 14 8 15.3 24 49 -46 140 51 4 139 15 14 141 29 41 138 34 42 -1.53
140 8 46 -37 0 0 14 8 23.3 25 49 -47 140 55 32 139 21 13 141 33 34 138 41 19 -1.53
140 11 47 -36 0 0 14 8 31.6 26 49 -48 140 57 53 139 24 55 141 35 23 138 45 37 -1.53
140 12 41 -35 0 0 14 8 40.1 26 49 -49 140 58 11 139 26 26 141 35 12 138 47 40 -1.53
140 11 33 -34 0 0 14 8 48.7 27 50 -50 140 56 30 139 25 52 141 33 5 138 47 35 1.53
140 8 29 -33 0 0 14 8 57.6 28 50 -51 140 52 57 139 23 18 141 29 8 138 45 26 1.53
140 3 31 -32 0 0 14 9 6.6 28 51 -51 140 47 33 139 18 47 141 23 24 138 41 18 1.53
139 56 43 -31 0 0 14 9 15.9 29 51 -52 140 40 22 139 12 23 141 15 54 138 35 14 1.53
139 48 9 -30 0 0 14 9 25.3 29 52 -53 140 31 28 139 4 9 141 6 43 138 27 18 1.52
139 37 49 -29 0 0 14 9 34.9 30 52 -54 140 20 51 138 54 7 140 55 52 138 17 31 1.52
139 25 46 -28 0 0 14 9 44.7 30 53 -55 140 8 33 138 42 19 140 43 23 138 5 56 1.52
139 12 2 -27 0 0 14 9 54.7 31 53 -56 139 54 37 138 28 47 140 29 16 137 52 34 1.52
138 56 37 -26 0 0 14 10 4.8 31 54 -57 139 39 2 138 13 32 140 13 34 137 37 26 1.52
138 39 32 -25 0 0 14 10 15.1 32 55 -58 139 21 51 137 56 34 139 56 17 137 20 33 1.52
138 20 47 -24 0 0 14 10 25.6 32 55 -59 139 3 1 137 37 53 139 37 24 137 1 56 1.52
138 0 23 -23 0 0 14 10 36.3 32 56 -59 138 42 35 137 17 29 139 16 55 136 41 33 1.52
137 38 17 -22 0 0 14 10 47.1 33 57 -60 138 20 30 136 55 22 138 54 51 136 19 25 1.52
137 14 30 -21 0 0 14 10 58.1 33 58 -61 137 56 47 136 31 31 138 31 10 135 55 29 1.51
136 49 0 -20 0 0 14 11 9.3 33 59 -62 137 31 23 136 5 54 138 5 51 135 29 45 1.51
136 21 45 -19 0 0 14 11 20.7 33 59 -62 137 4 17 135 38 28 137 38 52 135 2 10 1.51
135 52 42 -18 0 0 14 11 32.2 33 60 -63 136 35 27 135 9 12 137 10 12 134 32 42 1.51
135 21 49 -17 0 0 14 11 43.9 34 61 -64 136 4 50 134 38 2 136 39 47 134 1 17 1.51
134 49 3 -16 0 0 14 11 55.7 34 62 -64 135 32 23 134 4 55 136 7 34 133 27 51 1.51
134 14 18 -15 0 0 14 12 7.8 34 63 -65 134 58 1 133 29 46 135 33 30 132 52 20 1.51
133 37 31 -14 0 0 14 12 20.0 34 64 -65 134 21 41 132 52 30 134 57 30 132 14 38 1.50
132 58 36 -13 0 0 14 12 32.3 33 65 -65 133 43 16 132 13 0 134 19 30 131 34 39 1.50
132 17 25 -12 0 0 14 12 44.9 33 65 -66 133 2 42 131 31 10 133 39 23 130 52 14 1.50
131 33 51 -11 0 0 14 12 57.6 33 66 -66 132 19 49 130 46 51 132 57 3 130 7 15 1.50
130 47 44 -10 0 0 14 13 10.5 33 67 -66 131 34 31 129 59 53 132 12 22 129 19 30 1.50
129 58 55 - 9 0 0 14 13 23.6 33 68 -66 130 46 37 129 10 4 131 25 10 128 28 47 1.50
129 7 10 - 8 0 0 14 13 36.8 32 69 -66 129 55 55 128 17 9 130 35 16 127 34 51 1.50
128 12 13 - 7 0 0 14 13 50.3 32 70 -66 129 2 11 127 20 52 129 42 28 126 37 22 1.50
127 13 46 - 6 0 0 14 14 4.0 31 71 -65 128 5 9 126 20 53 128 46 30 125 35 59 1.50
126 11 27 - 5 0 0 14 14 17.9 31 72 -65 127 4 28 125 16 45 127 47 4 124 30 12 1.50
125 4 48 - 4 0 0 14 14 32.1 30 72 -64 125 59 44 124 7 57 126 43 46 123 19 26 1.50
123 53 13 - 3 0 0 14 14 46.5 29 73 -63 124 50 26 122 53 48 125 36 11 122 2 55 1.50
122 35 56 - 2 0 0 14 15 1.2 28 74 -63 123 35 54 121 33 24 124 23 41 120 39 36 1.50
121 11 59 - 1 0 0 14 15 16.3 27 75 -62 122 15 19 120 5 34 123 5 34 119 8 4 1.51
119 39 57 0 0 0 14 15 31.7 26 75 -60 120 47 31 118 28 34 121 40 49 117 26 15 1.51
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2020 Jan 12.0
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