|
|
Updated: 2019 Dec 28, 18:51 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Feb 18 UT, the 186 km diameter asteroid (372) Palma will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across Northern Territory, western Queensland and New South Wales.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.11 mag to 14.27 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 223-128113 by 372 Palma on 2020 Feb 18
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
.. .. .. 15 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. 111 41 51 ... .. .. 111 59 25 ....
111 26 57 14 0 0 18 35 36.7 1 138 -64 ... .. .. 112 37 34 ... .. .. 112 54 56 ....
112 22 20 13 0 0 18 35 36.8 2 138 -63 111 11 53 113 32 9 110 54 21 113 49 20 0.21
113 16 37 12 0 0 18 35 37.1 3 138 -62 112 6 55 114 25 42 111 49 35 114 42 42 0.20
114 9 51 11 0 0 18 35 37.6 5 138 -61 113 0 52 115 18 16 112 43 44 115 35 6 0.20
115 2 8 10 0 0 18 35 38.2 6 138 -60 113 53 49 116 9 55 113 36 50 116 26 36 0.20
115 53 31 9 0 0 18 35 38.9 7 138 -59 114 45 48 117 0 44 114 28 58 117 17 16 0.20
116 44 4 8 0 0 18 35 39.8 9 139 -58 115 36 54 117 50 45 115 20 13 118 7 10 0.20
117 33 50 7 0 0 18 35 40.7 10 139 -57 116 27 11 118 40 3 116 10 38 118 56 21 0.20
118 22 53 6 0 0 18 35 41.9 11 139 -56 117 16 42 119 28 39 117 0 16 119 44 52 0.20
119 11 16 5 0 0 18 35 43.1 13 139 -55 118 5 30 120 16 39 117 49 11 120 32 45 0.20
119 59 3 4 0 0 18 35 44.5 14 139 -54 118 53 39 121 4 3 118 37 26 121 20 5 0.20
120 46 14 3 0 0 18 35 46.0 15 139 -53 119 41 12 121 50 56 119 25 3 122 6 53 0.19
121 32 55 2 0 0 18 35 47.7 16 139 -52 120 28 11 122 37 20 120 12 7 122 53 13 0.19
122 19 7 1 0 0 18 35 49.4 18 139 -51 121 14 38 123 23 16 120 58 39 123 39 6 0.19
123 4 52 0 0 0 18 35 51.3 19 139 -50 122 0 38 124 8 49 121 44 42 124 24 35 0.19
123 50 13 - 1 0 0 18 35 53.3 20 139 -49 122 46 11 124 54 0 122 30 18 125 9 43 0.19
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
146 0 0 -30 23 37 18 37 38.8 56 128 -17 -31 49 43 -28 58 7 -32 11 6 -28 37 4 0.18
147 0 0 -31 33 2 18 37 44.6 57 127 -16 -32 58 34 -30 8 5 -33 19 49 -29 47 10 0.18
148 0 0 -32 40 54 18 37 50.4 59 125 -15 -34 5 50 -31 16 33 -34 26 55 -30 55 46 0.18
149 0 0 -33 47 11 18 37 56.2 60 124 -13 -35 11 28 -32 23 27 -35 32 25 -32 2 49 0.18
150 0 0 -34 51 51 18 38 1.9 61 123 -12 -36 15 29 -33 28 46 -36 36 15 -33 8 18 0.18
151 0 0 -35 54 53 18 38 7.5 62 121 -11 -37 17 49 -34 32 29 -37 38 25 -34 12 11 0.18
152 0 0 -36 56 17 18 38 13.1 64 120 -10 -38 18 30 -35 34 35 -38 38 55 -35 14 27 0.18
153 0 0 -37 56 1 18 38 18.7 65 118 -9 -39 17 30 -36 35 2 -39 37 44 -36 15 5 0.18
154 0 0 -38 54 7 18 38 24.2 66 116 -8 -40 14 50 -37 33 52 -40 34 53 -37 14 5 0.18
155 0 0 -39 50 33 18 38 29.6 67 115 -7 -41 10 31 -38 31 3 -41 30 22 -38 11 27 0.18
156 0 0 -40 45 21 18 38 34.9 68 113 -6 -42 4 33 -39 26 37 -42 24 12 -39 7 12 0.18
157 0 0 -41 38 32 18 38 40.1 69 111 -5 -42 56 57 -40 20 34 -43 16 24 -40 1 21 0.18
158 0 0 -42 30 7 18 38 45.3 70 108 -4 -43 47 44 -41 12 55 -44 7 0 -40 53 53 0.18
159 0 0 -43 20 7 18 38 50.3 71 106 -3 -44 36 56 -42 3 41 -44 56 0 -41 44 51 0.18
160 0 0 -44 8 33 18 38 55.3 72 104 -2 -45 24 35 -42 52 54 -45 43 27 -42 34 16 0.18
161 0 0 -44 55 28 18 39 0.2 73 101 -1 -46 10 43 -43 40 36 -46 29 23 -43 22 8 0.18
162 0 0 -45 40 53 18 39 5.0 74 98 0 -46 55 20 -44 26 47 -47 13 49 -44 8 31 0.18
163 0 0 -46 24 49 18 39 9.7 74 95 1 -47 38 30 -45 11 30 -47 56 47 -44 53 25 0.18
164 0 0 -47 7 20 18 39 14.3 75 92 2 -48 20 15 -45 54 47 -48 38 20 -45 36 53 0.18
165 0 0 -47 48 27 18 39 18.8 76 88 3 -49 0 35 -46 36 39 -49 18 29 -46 18 56 0.18
166 0 0 -48 28 12 18 39 23.2 76 85 4 -49 39 35 -47 17 9 -49 57 17 -46 59 37 0.18
167 0 0 -49 6 37 18 39 27.6 77 81 4 -50 17 15 -47 56 18 -50 34 46 -47 38 57 0.18
168 0 0 -49 43 44 18 39 31.8 78 77 5 -50 53 38 -48 34 9 -51 10 58 -48 16 59 0.19
169 0 0 -50 19 36 18 39 35.9 78 72 6 -51 28 46 -49 10 43 -51 45 55 -48 53 44 0.19
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2019 Dec 28.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]