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Updated: 2020 Jan 12, 19:18 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Feb 11 UT, the 108 km diameter asteroid (545) Messalina will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across northern Queensland, Northern Territory and southern West Australia, running from Cairns to Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.33 mag to 14.61 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-607-038480 by 545 Messalina on 2020 Feb 11
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
.. .. .. -49 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. 97 38 48 ....
96 44 45 -48 0 0 12 22 1.4 1 39 5 ... .. .. 98 7 29 ... .. .. 98 49 38 ....
97 57 2 -47 0 0 12 22 1.1 2 38 4 96 35 54 99 18 49 95 55 3 100 0 31 0.54
99 9 18 -46 0 0 12 22 0.3 3 37 3 97 49 2 100 30 16 97 8 38 101 11 34 0.77
100 21 40 -45 0 0 12 21 59.2 4 36 1 99 2 10 101 41 55 98 22 9 102 22 51 0.86
101 34 16 -44 0 0 12 21 57.7 6 35 0 100 15 25 102 53 53 99 35 45 103 34 31 0.91
102 47 10 -43 0 0 12 21 55.7 7 34 -1 101 28 54 104 6 15 100 49 32 104 46 38 0.94
104 0 30 -42 0 0 12 21 53.3 8 33 -2 102 42 42 105 19 8 102 3 35 105 59 18 0.97
105 14 21 -41 0 0 12 21 50.5 10 33 -3 103 56 56 106 32 39 103 18 2 107 12 39 0.98
106 28 51 -40 0 0 12 21 47.1 11 32 -5 105 11 43 107 46 53 104 32 58 108 26 46 0.99
107 44 4 -39 0 0 12 21 43.4 12 31 -6 106 27 9 109 1 57 105 48 31 109 41 46 1.00
109 0 9 -38 0 0 12 21 39.1 14 30 -7 107 43 20 110 17 58 107 4 47 110 57 47 1.01
110 17 12 -37 0 0 12 21 34.4 15 29 -8 109 0 24 111 35 3 108 21 52 112 14 54 1.02
111 35 21 -36 0 0 12 21 29.1 17 28 -10 110 18 27 112 53 20 109 39 54 113 33 17 1.02
112 54 43 -35 0 0 12 21 23.3 18 27 -11 111 37 38 114 12 58 110 59 1 114 53 4 1.03
114 15 28 -34 0 0 12 21 17.0 19 26 -13 112 58 5 115 34 4 112 19 20 116 14 23 1.03
115 37 44 -33 0 0 12 21 10.1 21 26 -14 114 19 56 116 56 50 113 40 59 117 37 25 1.03
117 1 41 -32 0 0 12 21 2.6 22 25 -16 115 43 21 118 21 24 115 4 10 119 2 21 1.04
118 27 31 -31 0 0 12 20 54.5 23 24 -17 117 8 30 119 48 0 116 29 0 120 29 22 1.04
119 55 25 -30 0 0 12 20 45.7 25 22 -19 118 35 34 121 16 50 117 55 42 121 58 44 1.04
121 25 38 -29 0 0 12 20 36.3 26 21 -20 120 4 47 122 48 10 119 24 27 123 30 40 1.04
122 58 24 -28 0 0 12 20 26.2 28 20 -22 121 36 23 124 22 16 120 55 30 125 5 30 1.04
124 34 3 -27 0 0 12 20 15.3 29 19 -24 123 10 39 125 59 28 122 29 7 126 43 34 1.04
126 12 55 -26 0 0 12 20 3.6 30 18 -25 124 47 52 127 40 10 124 5 34 128 25 17 1.04
127 55 24 -25 0 0 12 19 51.0 32 16 -27 126 28 25 129 24 49 125 45 14 130 11 8 1.04
129 41 59 -24 0 0 12 19 37.6 33 15 -29 128 12 45 131 13 59 127 28 30 132 1 43 1.04
131 33 17 -23 0 0 12 19 23.1 35 13 -31 130 1 21 133 8 19 129 15 52 133 57 47 1.05
133 30 1 -22 0 0 12 19 7.4 36 11 -33 131 54 53 135 8 43 131 7 55 136 0 14 1.05
135 33 6 -21 0 0 12 18 50.6 37 9 -35 133 54 6 137 16 15 133 5 23 138 10 18 1.05
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
147 0 0 -16 27 2 12 17 11.2 42 357 -46 -15 42 30 -17 12 12 -15 20 12 -17 35 21 1.05
148 0 0 -16 8 10 12 17 2.3 43 356 -47 -15 23 50 -16 53 8 -15 1 37 -17 16 10 1.05
149 0 0 -15 50 5 12 16 53.4 43 355 -48 -15 5 56 -16 34 52 -14 43 49 -16 57 48 1.05
150 0 0 -15 32 48 12 16 44.4 43 354 -49 -14 48 50 -16 17 24 -14 26 48 -16 40 14 1.05
151 0 0 -15 16 19 12 16 35.5 43 353 -49 -14 32 31 -16 0 43 -14 10 33 -16 23 28 1.05
152 0 0 -15 0 37 12 16 26.5 43 352 -50 -14 16 58 -15 44 51 -13 55 5 -16 7 31 1.05
153 0 0 -14 45 42 12 16 17.6 43 350 -51 -14 2 13 -15 29 47 -13 40 24 -15 52 22 1.05
154 0 0 -14 31 34 12 16 8.6 44 349 -52 -13 48 14 -15 15 31 -13 26 29 -15 38 1 1.05
155 0 0 -14 18 14 12 15 59.7 44 348 -53 -13 35 1 -15 2 2 -13 13 21 -15 24 28 1.05
156 0 0 -14 5 41 12 15 50.8 44 347 -53 -13 22 36 -14 49 21 -13 0 59 -15 11 43 1.05
157 0 0 -13 53 55 12 15 41.9 44 346 -54 -13 10 57 -14 37 28 -12 49 23 -14 59 46 1.05
158 0 0 -13 42 56 12 15 33.0 43 345 -55 -13 0 4 -14 26 22 -12 38 34 -14 48 36 1.05
159 0 0 -13 32 44 12 15 24.2 43 344 -56 -12 49 58 -14 16 4 -12 28 31 -14 38 14 1.05
160 0 0 -13 23 18 12 15 15.3 43 343 -56 -12 40 38 -14 6 33 -12 19 14 -14 28 40 1.05
161 0 0 -13 14 40 12 15 6.6 43 341 -57 -12 32 4 -13 57 49 -12 10 43 -14 19 54 1.05
162 0 0 -13 6 48 12 14 57.8 43 340 -58 -12 24 17 -13 49 53 -12 2 58 -14 11 55 1.05
163 0 0 -12 59 43 12 14 49.1 43 339 -58 -12 17 16 -13 42 43 -11 55 59 -14 4 44 1.05
164 0 0 -12 53 25 12 14 40.5 42 338 -59 -12 11 1 -13 36 21 -11 49 46 -13 58 20 1.05
165 0 0 -12 47 53 12 14 31.9 42 337 -59 -12 5 33 -13 30 47 -11 44 19 -13 52 43 1.05
166 0 0 -12 43 8 12 14 23.3 42 336 -60 -12 0 51 -13 25 59 -11 39 37 -13 47 54 1.05
167 0 0 -12 39 10 12 14 14.8 42 335 -60 -11 56 54 -13 21 58 -11 35 42 -13 43 53 1.05
168 0 0 -12 35 58 12 14 6.4 41 334 -61 -11 53 44 -13 18 45 -11 32 33 -13 40 38 1.05
169 0 0 -12 33 33 12 13 58.0 41 333 -61 -11 51 21 -13 16 19 -11 30 10 -13 38 12 1.05
170 0 0 -12 31 55 12 13 49.7 40 332 -62 -11 49 43 -13 14 40 -11 28 33 -13 36 32 1.06
171 0 0 -12 31 3 12 13 41.5 40 331 -62 -11 48 52 -13 13 48 -11 27 41 -13 35 41 1.06
172 0 0 -12 30 59 12 13 33.3 40 330 -62 -11 48 47 -13 13 44 -11 27 36 -13 35 36 1.06
173 0 0 -12 31 41 12 13 25.2 39 330 -62 -11 49 28 -13 14 27 -11 28 17 -13 36 20 1.06
174 0 0 -12 33 10 12 13 17.2 39 329 -63 -11 50 55 -13 15 57 -11 29 44 -13 37 50 1.06
175 0 0 -12 35 25 12 13 9.3 38 328 -63 -11 53 10 -13 18 15 -11 31 57 -13 40 9 1.06
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2020 Jan 12.0
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