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Updated: 2020 Jan 12, 19:19 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Feb 11 UT, the 99 km diameter asteroid (412) Elisabetha will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across south-western West Australia, passing over Kalgoorlie.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.07 mag to 13.70 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 575-029025 by 412 Elisabetha on 2020 Feb 11
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
.. .. .. -44 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. 140 43 50 ... .. .. 140 10 11 ....
139 54 17 -43 0 0 15 54 34.2 1 306 -31 140 57 17 138 52 6 141 30 44 138 19 45 ....
138 5 50 -42 0 0 15 54 35.3 3 308 -33 139 6 27 137 5 55 139 38 36 136 34 42 0.06
136 22 31 -41 0 0 15 54 37.2 5 309 -34 137 21 2 135 24 36 137 52 2 134 54 25 0.10
134 43 44 -40 0 0 15 54 40.0 6 310 -35 135 40 23 133 47 38 136 10 22 133 18 21 0.11
133 9 0 -39 0 0 15 54 43.5 8 311 -37 134 3 59 132 14 31 134 33 3 131 46 4 0.13
131 37 54 -38 0 0 15 54 47.7 9 312 -38 132 31 21 130 44 52 132 59 36 130 17 10 0.13
130 10 2 -37 0 0 15 54 52.6 11 313 -39 131 2 7 129 18 19 131 29 38 128 51 18 0.14
128 45 6 -36 0 0 15 54 58.2 12 314 -40 129 35 56 127 54 36 130 2 47 127 28 12 0.14
127 22 50 -35 0 0 15 55 4.4 14 314 -41 128 12 31 126 33 26 128 38 45 126 7 36 0.15
126 2 58 -34 0 0 15 55 11.2 15 315 -42 126 51 37 125 14 35 127 17 17 124 49 16 0.15
124 45 17 -33 0 0 15 55 18.7 17 316 -43 125 32 59 123 57 50 125 58 8 123 33 0 0.15
123 29 36 -32 0 0 15 55 26.7 18 316 -44 124 16 25 122 43 0 124 41 5 122 18 36 0.15
122 15 44 -31 0 0 15 55 35.3 20 317 -45 123 1 44 121 29 56 123 25 59 121 5 56 0.15
121 3 32 -30 0 0 15 55 44.4 21 318 -46 121 48 47 120 18 27 122 12 37 119 54 50 0.16
119 52 50 -29 0 0 15 55 54.1 22 318 -47 120 37 24 119 8 26 121 0 52 118 45 10 0.16
118 43 32 -28 0 0 15 56 4.4 24 319 -48 119 27 28 117 59 45 119 50 35 117 36 48 0.16
117 35 30 -27 0 0 15 56 15.1 25 319 -49 118 18 50 116 52 18 118 41 39 116 29 39 0.16
116 28 38 -26 0 0 15 56 26.4 27 320 -49 117 11 25 115 45 57 117 33 56 115 23 35 0.16
115 22 48 -25 0 0 15 56 38.1 28 320 -50 116 5 5 114 40 37 116 27 20 114 18 30 0.16
114 17 57 -24 0 0 15 56 50.4 29 321 -51 114 59 46 113 36 13 115 21 46 113 14 20 0.16
113 13 58 -23 0 0 15 57 3.1 31 321 -51 113 55 21 112 32 39 114 17 7 112 10 59 0.16
112 10 46 -22 0 0 15 57 16.3 32 322 -52 112 51 46 111 29 51 113 13 19 111 8 23 0.16
111 8 18 -21 0 0 15 57 30.0 33 322 -53 111 48 56 110 27 44 112 10 17 110 6 27 0.16
110 6 29 -20 0 0 15 57 44.1 35 323 -53 110 46 46 109 26 14 111 7 57 109 5 7 0.16
109 5 14 -19 0 0 15 57 58.7 36 323 -54 109 45 13 108 25 17 110 6 14 108 4 19 0.16
108 4 30 -18 0 0 15 58 13.7 37 323 -54 108 44 12 107 24 50 109 5 5 107 4 0 0.16
107 4 14 -17 0 0 15 58 29.2 39 324 -55 107 43 41 106 24 48 108 4 25 106 4 6 0.16
106 4 21 -16 0 0 15 58 45.1 40 324 -55 106 43 35 105 25 9 107 4 11 105 4 33 0.16
105 4 49 -15 0 0 15 59 1.4 41 325 -56 105 43 50 104 25 48 106 4 20 104 5 19 0.16
104 5 34 -14 0 0 15 59 18.1 43 325 -56 104 44 24 103 26 44 105 4 49 103 6 20 0.16
103 6 33 -13 0 0 15 59 35.3 44 325 -56 103 45 14 102 27 52 104 5 33 102 7 33 0.16
102 7 44 -12 0 0 15 59 52.8 45 326 -56 102 46 17 101 29 10 103 6 31 101 8 55 0.16
101 9 3 -11 0 0 16 0 10.8 47 326 -57 101 47 29 100 30 36 102 7 40 100 10 23 0.16
100 10 27 -10 0 0 16 0 29.1 48 326 -57 100 48 47 99 32 5 101 8 55 99 11 55 0.16
99 11 54 - 9 0 0 16 0 47.9 49 327 -57 99 50 10 98 33 36 100 10 15 98 13 28 0.16
98 13 21 - 8 0 0 16 1 7.0 51 327 -57 98 51 34 97 35 6 99 11 37 97 14 59 0.16
97 14 45 - 7 0 0 16 1 26.5 52 327 -57 97 52 56 96 36 31 98 12 59 96 16 26 0.16
96 16 4 - 6 0 0 16 1 46.4 53 328 -57 96 54 14 95 37 50 97 14 16 95 17 45 0.16
95 17 14 - 5 0 0 16 2 6.6 55 328 -57 95 55 25 94 39 0 96 15 27 94 18 54 0.15
94 18 14 - 4 0 0 16 2 27.2 56 329 -56 94 56 26 93 39 57 95 16 29 93 19 50 0.15
93 19 0 - 3 0 0 16 2 48.2 57 329 -56 93 57 15 92 40 40 94 17 20 92 20 31 0.15
92 19 29 - 2 0 0 16 3 9.6 58 330 -56 92 57 49 91 41 5 93 17 56 91 20 53 0.15
91 19 40 - 1 0 0 16 3 31.2 60 330 -55 91 58 5 90 41 10 92 18 14 90 20 55 0.15
90 19 29 0 0 0 16 3 53.3 61 331 -55 90 58 1 89 40 52 91 18 13 89 20 32 0.15
89 18 53 1 0 0 16 4 15.6 62 331 -55 89 57 33 88 40 7 90 17 49 88 19 43 0.15
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
87 0 0 3 15 43 16 5 7.5 65 333 -54 3 53 31 2 37 50 4 13 21 2 17 54 0.15
86 0 0 4 13 31 16 5 30.1 67 334 -53 4 51 9 3 35 47 5 10 54 3 15 56 0.14
85 0 0 5 10 44 16 5 52.8 68 334 -52 5 48 13 4 33 11 6 7 52 4 13 25 0.14
84 0 0 6 7 22 16 6 15.5 69 335 -52 6 44 41 5 29 59 7 4 15 5 10 19 0.14
83 0 0 7 3 23 16 6 38.3 70 336 -51 7 40 32 6 26 10 8 0 1 6 6 35 0.14
82 0 0 7 58 45 16 7 1.1 72 338 -50 8 35 43 7 21 43 8 55 7 7 2 14 0.14
81 0 0 8 53 27 16 7 23.8 73 339 -50 9 30 15 8 16 36 9 49 32 7 57 12 0.14
80 0 0 9 47 27 16 7 46.6 74 341 -49 10 24 4 9 10 46 10 43 16 8 51 29 0.14
79 0 0 10 40 44 16 8 9.3 75 343 -48 11 17 9 10 4 14 11 36 16 9 45 3 0.14
78 0 0 11 33 16 16 8 31.9 76 345 -48 12 9 31 10 56 58 12 28 31 10 37 52 0.14
77 0 0 12 25 3 16 8 54.5 77 347 -47 13 1 6 11 48 57 13 20 1 11 29 57 0.14
76 0 0 13 16 4 16 9 16.9 78 350 -46 13 51 56 12 40 9 14 10 45 12 21 15 0.13
75 0 0 14 6 18 16 9 39.2 79 354 -45 14 41 58 13 30 34 15 0 40 13 11 47 0.13
74 0 0 14 55 43 16 10 1.4 80 358 -44 15 31 11 14 20 11 15 49 48 14 1 30 0.13
73 0 0 15 44 20 16 10 23.5 81 3 -44 16 19 36 15 9 0 16 38 7 14 50 24 0.13
72 0 0 16 32 7 16 10 45.4 81 9 -43 17 7 12 15 56 59 17 25 36 15 38 30 0.13
71 0 0 17 19 4 16 11 7.1 82 15 -42 17 53 57 16 44 8 18 12 16 16 25 45 0.13
70 0 0 18 5 11 16 11 28.6 82 23 -41 18 39 52 17 30 27 18 58 5 17 12 10 0.13
69 0 0 18 50 27 16 11 49.9 83 31 -40 19 24 57 18 15 55 19 43 3 17 57 45 0.13
68 0 0 19 34 52 16 12 11.1 83 40 -40 20 9 10 19 0 32 20 27 10 18 42 28 0.13
67 0 0 20 18 26 16 12 32.0 83 48 -39 20 52 32 19 44 17 21 10 26 19 26 20 0.13
66 0 0 21 1 9 16 12 52.7 82 56 -38 21 35 3 20 27 12 21 52 51 20 9 21 0.13
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2020 Jan 12.0
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