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Updated: 2020 Jan 12, 19:18 UT
Event Rank : 58
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Feb 11 UT, the 34 km diameter asteroid (1027) Aesculapia will occult a 11.3 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across south-eastern New South Wales and eastern and southern Victoria, passing near Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.54 mag to 15.82 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 39.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1866-01492-1 by 1027 Aesculapia on 2020 Feb 11
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
137 0 35 -44 0 0 11 7 38.0 21 2 -11 136 26 48 137 34 34 135 17 52 138 45 2 1.62
138 16 37 -43 0 0 11 6 5.4 22 1 -12 137 42 50 138 50 35 136 33 57 140 1 2 1.61
139 35 2 -42 0 0 11 4 27.7 23 0 -13 139 1 14 140 9 2 137 52 19 141 19 33 1.60
140 55 57 -41 0 0 11 2 44.7 24 359 -14 140 22 5 141 30 1 139 13 5 142 40 40 1.59
142 19 27 -40 0 0 11 0 56.3 25 358 -15 141 45 30 142 53 37 140 36 18 144 4 30 1.58
143 45 39 -39 0 0 10 59 2.4 26 357 -16 143 11 33 144 19 57 142 2 7 145 31 9 1.56
145 14 39 -38 0 0 10 57 2.9 27 356 -17 144 40 23 145 49 8 143 30 36 147 0 43 1.55
146 46 35 -37 0 0 10 54 57.7 28 355 -19 146 12 6 147 21 17 145 1 54 148 33 23 1.54
148 21 36 -36 0 0 10 52 46.6 29 354 -20 147 46 51 148 56 35 146 36 8 150 9 16 1.52
149 59 51 -35 0 0 10 50 29.4 30 353 -21 149 24 48 150 35 10 148 13 28 151 48 33 1.50
151 41 33 -34 0 0 10 48 6.0 31 352 -23 151 6 7 152 17 14 149 54 4 153 31 27 1.49
153 26 51 -33 0 0 10 45 36.1 32 351 -24 152 51 0 154 2 59 151 38 7 155 18 10 1.47
155 16 2 -32 0 0 10 42 59.5 32 349 -25 154 39 41 155 52 41 153 25 50 157 8 58 1.46
Uncertainty in time = +/- 65 secs
Prediction of 2020 Jan 12.0
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