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Updated: 2020 Jan 12, 19:12 UT
Event Rank : 94
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Feb 09 UT, the 54 km diameter asteroid (267) Tirza will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Leo for observers along a path across New Zealand, Queensland, Northern Territory and northern West Australia, running from Sarina to Broome.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.07 mag to 14.30 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.1 seconds. Note full moon very nearby.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-557-047909 by 267 Tirza on 2020 Feb 9
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
179 57 5 -38 0 0 12 52 19.8 31 358 -37 -179 19 15 179 13 2 -178 47 2 178 40 0 1.19
178 30 37 -37 0 0 12 52 30.0 32 360 -38 179 14 30 177 46 19 179 46 52 177 13 6 1.19
177 2 19 -36 0 0 12 52 40.7 33 1 -39 177 46 29 176 17 41 178 19 3 175 44 11 1.19
175 31 56 -35 0 0 12 52 52.0 34 3 -40 176 16 30 174 46 53 176 49 20 174 13 4 1.19
173 59 16 -34 0 0 12 53 3.8 35 4 -41 174 44 19 173 13 42 175 17 29 172 39 28 1.19
172 24 2 -33 0 0 12 53 16.1 36 6 -42 173 9 40 171 37 50 173 43 15 171 3 5 1.19
170 45 55 -32 0 0 12 53 29.0 37 8 -43 171 32 16 169 58 57 172 6 22 169 23 36 1.19
169 4 34 -31 0 0 12 53 42.5 37 10 -44 169 51 47 168 16 41 170 26 29 167 40 37 1.19
167 19 34 -30 0 0 12 53 56.7 38 12 -45 168 7 49 166 30 35 168 43 13 165 53 39 1.19
165 30 24 -29 0 0 12 54 11.6 39 15 -46 166 19 52 164 40 6 166 56 9 164 2 7 1.19
163 36 27 -28 0 0 12 54 27.2 39 17 -47 164 27 24 162 44 34 165 4 42 162 5 20 1.19
161 36 57 -27 0 0 12 54 43.7 40 19 -48 162 29 40 160 43 9 163 8 12 160 2 23 1.19
159 30 55 -26 0 0 12 55 1.1 40 22 -48 160 25 48 158 34 46 161 5 51 157 52 7 1.19
158 0 0 -25 18 49 12 55 13.6 40 24 -48 -24 53 32 -25 44 22 -24 34 53 -26 3 31 1.19
157 0 0 -24 52 37 12 55 21.9 40 25 -49 -24 27 29 -25 18 0 -24 8 57 -25 37 2 1.19
156 0 0 -24 27 12 12 55 30.1 40 26 -49 -24 2 13 -24 52 25 -23 43 48 -25 11 19 1.19
155 0 0 -24 2 33 12 55 38.3 40 27 -49 -23 37 43 -24 27 36 -23 19 24 -24 46 24 1.19
154 0 0 -23 38 41 12 55 46.5 40 29 -49 -23 14 0 -24 3 35 -22 55 47 -24 22 16 1.19
153 0 0 -23 15 35 12 55 54.6 40 30 -49 -22 51 3 -23 40 22 -22 32 56 -23 58 56 1.19
152 0 0 -22 53 17 12 56 2.7 40 31 -49 -22 28 52 -23 17 55 -22 10 52 -23 36 23 1.19
151 0 0 -22 31 46 12 56 10.8 40 32 -49 -22 7 28 -22 56 16 -21 49 33 -23 14 38 1.19
150 0 0 -22 11 1 12 56 18.8 39 33 -49 -21 46 51 -22 35 24 -21 29 2 -22 53 40 1.19
149 0 0 -21 51 4 12 56 26.7 39 34 -48 -21 27 1 -22 15 19 -21 9 16 -22 33 30 1.19
148 0 0 -21 31 53 12 56 34.6 39 36 -48 -21 7 57 -21 56 2 -20 50 17 -22 14 8 1.19
147 0 0 -21 13 30 12 56 42.4 39 37 -48 -20 49 40 -21 37 32 -20 32 5 -21 55 33 1.19
146 0 0 -20 55 54 12 56 50.2 38 38 -48 -20 32 10 -21 19 50 -20 14 39 -21 37 46 1.19
145 0 0 -20 39 5 12 56 57.8 38 39 -47 -20 15 27 -21 2 55 -19 58 0 -21 20 47 1.19
144 0 0 -20 23 3 12 57 5.4 38 40 -47 -19 59 31 -20 46 48 -19 42 8 -21 4 35 1.19
143 0 0 -20 7 49 12 57 13.0 37 41 -47 -19 44 21 -20 31 28 -19 27 2 -20 49 11 1.19
142 0 0 -19 53 21 12 57 20.4 37 42 -46 -19 29 58 -20 16 56 -19 12 43 -20 34 35 1.19
141 0 0 -19 39 41 12 57 27.8 36 43 -46 -19 16 22 -20 3 11 -18 59 10 -20 20 47 1.19
140 0 0 -19 26 47 12 57 35.0 36 44 -45 -19 3 33 -19 50 13 -18 46 24 -20 7 46 1.19
139 0 0 -19 14 41 12 57 42.2 35 44 -45 -18 51 31 -19 38 3 -18 34 25 -19 55 33 1.19
138 0 0 -19 3 23 12 57 49.3 35 45 -44 -18 40 16 -19 26 40 -18 23 12 -19 44 7 1.19
137 0 0 -18 52 51 12 57 56.2 34 46 -44 -18 29 48 -19 16 5 -18 12 46 -19 33 30 1.19
136 0 0 -18 43 6 12 58 3.1 34 47 -43 -18 20 6 -19 6 18 -18 3 7 -19 23 40 1.20
135 0 0 -18 34 9 12 58 9.8 33 48 -43 -18 11 12 -18 57 18 -17 54 15 -19 14 37 1.20
134 0 0 -18 25 59 12 58 16.5 33 49 -42 -18 3 5 -18 49 5 -17 46 9 -19 6 23 1.20
133 0 0 -18 18 37 12 58 23.0 32 49 -42 -17 55 44 -18 41 40 -17 38 50 -18 58 56 1.20
132 0 0 -18 12 1 12 58 29.4 31 50 -41 -17 49 11 -18 35 3 -17 32 18 -18 52 17 1.20
131 0 0 -18 6 13 12 58 35.7 31 51 -40 -17 43 24 -18 29 13 -17 26 33 -18 46 26 1.20
130 0 0 -18 1 13 12 58 41.9 30 51 -40 -17 38 25 -18 24 11 -17 21 35 -18 41 23 1.20
129 0 0 -17 56 59 12 58 47.9 29 52 -39 -17 34 13 -18 19 57 -17 17 24 -18 37 8 1.20
128 0 0 -17 53 34 12 58 53.8 29 53 -38 -17 30 48 -18 16 30 -17 14 0 -18 33 41 1.20
127 0 0 -17 50 56 12 58 59.6 28 53 -38 -17 28 11 -18 13 51 -17 11 22 -18 31 2 1.20
126 0 0 -17 49 5 12 59 5.3 27 54 -37 -17 26 20 -18 12 0 -17 9 32 -18 29 11 1.20
125 0 0 -17 48 2 12 59 10.8 26 54 -36 -17 25 17 -18 10 58 -17 8 29 -18 28 8 1.20
124 0 0 -17 47 47 12 59 16.1 26 55 -35 -17 25 2 -18 10 43 -17 8 14 -18 27 53 1.21
123 0 0 -17 48 20 12 59 21.4 25 56 -34 -17 25 34 -18 11 16 -17 8 46 -18 28 27 1.21
122 0 0 -17 49 40 12 59 26.4 24 56 -34 -17 26 54 -18 12 38 -17 10 5 -18 29 49 1.21
121 0 0 -17 51 49 12 59 31.4 23 57 -33 -17 29 2 -18 14 47 -17 12 12 -18 32 0 1.21
120 0 0 -17 54 46 12 59 36.1 22 57 -32 -17 31 57 -18 17 46 -17 15 6 -18 34 59 1.21
119 0 0 -17 58 31 12 59 40.8 22 58 -31 -17 35 40 -18 21 32 -17 18 48 -18 38 47 1.21
118 0 0 -18 3 4 12 59 45.2 21 58 -30 -17 40 12 -18 26 8 -17 23 18 -18 43 24 1.21
117 0 0 -18 8 26 12 59 49.5 20 59 -30 -17 45 32 -18 31 32 -17 28 36 -18 48 50 1.22
116 0 0 -18 14 37 12 59 53.6 19 59 -29 -17 51 40 -18 37 45 -17 34 43 -18 55 5 1.22
115 0 0 -18 21 36 12 59 57.6 18 59 -28 -17 58 36 -18 44 48 -17 41 37 -19 2 10 1.22
114 0 0 -18 29 25 13 0 1.4 17 60 -27 -18 6 22 -18 52 39 -17 49 20 -19 10 4 1.22
113 0 0 -18 38 2 13 0 5.0 17 60 -26 -18 14 56 -19 1 20 -17 57 52 -19 18 47 1.22
112 0 0 -18 47 29 13 0 8.5 16 61 -25 -18 24 18 -19 10 51 -18 7 12 -19 28 21 1.23
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2020 Jan 12.0
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