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Updated: 2019 NOV 15, 21:19 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Jan 12 UT, the 107.8 km diameter asteroid (545) Messalina will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a broad path across southern Australia from Carnarvon across Western Australia, southern South Australia near Adelaide and into south-eastern Australia, including Melbourne, at low and decreasing elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.89 mag to 14.18 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 609-040754 by 545 Messalina on 2020 Jan 12
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
157 42 13 -47 0 0 17 3 37.1 0 320 -7 ... .. .. 156 1 29 ... .. .. 155 16 23 ....
156 28 15 -46 0 0 17 3 37.3 1 321 -9 158 6 41 154 47 43 158 49 26 154 2 41 0.48
155 12 48 -45 0 0 17 3 37.8 3 322 -10 156 51 6 153 32 18 157 33 46 152 47 15 0.98
153 55 42 -44 0 0 17 3 38.7 4 323 -11 155 34 2 152 15 4 156 16 42 151 29 55 1.15
152 36 49 -43 0 0 17 3 40.0 5 323 -13 154 15 21 150 55 50 154 58 5 150 10 30 1.24
151 15 56 -42 0 0 17 3 41.7 7 324 -14 152 54 53 149 34 26 153 37 45 148 48 48 1.29
149 52 54 -41 0 0 17 3 43.9 8 325 -15 151 32 26 148 10 38 152 15 31 147 24 36 1.32
148 27 27 -40 0 0 17 3 46.6 10 326 -17 150 7 49 146 44 10 150 51 12 145 57 38 1.34
146 59 20 -39 0 0 17 3 49.8 11 327 -18 148 40 46 145 14 47 149 24 35 144 27 36 1.36
145 28 16 -38 0 0 17 3 53.6 13 328 -20 147 11 3 143 42 7 147 55 22 142 54 8 1.38
143 53 53 -37 0 0 17 3 57.9 14 329 -21 145 38 19 142 5 46 146 23 18 141 16 48 1.39
142 15 47 -36 0 0 17 4 2.9 16 331 -23 144 2 14 140 25 15 144 48 0 139 35 5 1.39
140 33 26 -35 0 0 17 4 8.5 17 332 -25 142 22 22 138 39 58 143 9 5 137 48 20 1.40
138 46 14 -34 0 0 17 4 15.0 19 333 -26 140 38 10 136 49 12 141 26 4 135 55 46 1.41
136 53 26 -33 0 0 17 4 22.3 20 334 -28 138 49 1 134 51 59 139 38 20 133 56 19 1.41
134 54 2 -32 0 0 17 4 30.5 22 336 -30 136 54 7 132 47 6 137 45 10 131 48 37 1.42
132 46 44 -31 0 0 17 4 39.9 23 337 -31 134 52 25 130 32 51 135 45 37 129 30 44 1.42
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
131 0 0 -30 12 51 17 4 48.1 25 339 -33 -29 15 32 -31 11 46 -28 50 45 -31 38 17 1.43
130 0 0 -29 47 35 17 4 52.9 25 340 -34 -28 50 43 -30 46 2 -28 26 7 -31 12 19 1.45
129 0 0 -29 23 14 17 4 57.8 26 340 -34 -28 26 47 -30 21 13 -28 2 22 -30 47 18 1.45
128 0 0 -28 59 47 17 5 2.8 27 341 -35 -28 3 44 -29 57 19 -27 39 28 -30 23 12 1.45
127 0 0 -28 37 13 17 5 7.9 27 342 -36 -27 41 33 -29 34 21 -27 17 27 -30 0 2 1.45
126 0 0 -28 15 33 17 5 13.1 28 343 -37 -27 20 15 -29 12 18 -26 56 18 -29 37 48 1.45
125 0 0 -27 54 46 17 5 18.3 29 344 -37 -26 59 49 -28 51 9 -26 36 1 -29 16 28 1.45
124 0 0 -27 34 53 17 5 23.7 29 345 -38 -26 40 15 -28 30 54 -26 16 36 -28 56 4 1.45
123 0 0 -27 15 53 17 5 29.1 30 345 -38 -26 21 34 -28 11 34 -25 58 2 -28 36 35 1.45
122 0 0 -26 57 46 17 5 34.6 30 346 -39 -26 3 45 -27 53 8 -25 40 20 -28 18 0 1.45
121 0 0 -26 40 32 17 5 40.1 31 347 -40 -25 46 47 -27 35 36 -25 23 29 -28 0 19 1.45
120 0 0 -26 24 11 17 5 45.7 31 348 -40 -25 30 42 -27 18 58 -25 7 30 -27 43 33 1.45
119 0 0 -26 8 42 17 5 51.4 31 349 -41 -25 15 27 -27 3 13 -24 52 22 -27 27 41 1.45
118 0 0 -25 54 6 17 5 57.1 32 350 -41 -25 1 5 -26 48 22 -24 38 6 -27 12 43 1.45
117 0 0 -25 40 21 17 6 2.9 32 351 -42 -24 47 34 -26 34 24 -24 24 40 -26 58 39 1.45
116 0 0 -25 27 30 17 6 8.7 33 352 -42 -24 34 54 -26 21 19 -24 12 5 -26 45 28 1.45
115 0 0 -25 15 30 17 6 14.6 33 353 -42 -24 23 5 -26 9 7 -24 0 21 -26 33 10 1.45
114 0 0 -25 4 22 17 6 20.4 33 354 -43 -24 12 8 -25 57 48 -23 49 28 -26 21 46 1.45
113 0 0 -24 54 6 17 6 26.4 33 355 -43 -24 2 1 -25 47 22 -23 39 25 -26 11 15 1.45
112 0 0 -24 44 41 17 6 32.3 34 356 -43 -23 52 45 -25 37 49 -23 30 13 -26 1 37 1.46
111 0 0 -24 36 8 17 6 38.3 34 357 -44 -23 44 20 -25 29 7 -23 21 51 -25 52 52 1.46
110 0 0 -24 28 27 17 6 44.3 34 358 -44 -23 36 46 -25 21 19 -23 14 20 -25 45 0 1.46
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2019 Nov 15.0
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