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Updated: 2019 NOV 15, 21:17 UT
Event Rank : 79
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Jan 11 UT, the 57.5 km diameter asteroid (307) Nike will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Leo for observers along a path across Western Australia, from near Esperence across central Western Australia to near Port Headland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.55 mag to 14.65 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.7 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-521-050936 by 307 Nike on 2020 Jan 11
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
125 26 25 -38 0 0 18 21 23.3 37 12 -20 125 50 36 125 2 11 126 16 37 124 36 0 0.62
125 3 43 -37 0 0 18 21 39.6 38 13 -21 125 27 38 124 39 45 125 53 21 124 13 51 0.62
124 40 37 -36 0 0 18 21 56.3 39 13 -22 125 4 17 124 16 54 125 29 44 123 51 17 0.62
124 17 7 -35 0 0 18 22 13.4 40 14 -23 124 40 33 123 53 38 125 5 45 123 28 16 0.62
123 53 13 -34 0 0 18 22 30.8 41 14 -24 124 16 25 123 29 57 124 41 23 123 4 49 0.62
123 28 54 -33 0 0 18 22 48.6 42 15 -25 123 51 54 123 5 50 124 16 38 122 40 56 0.62
123 4 10 -32 0 0 18 23 6.7 43 16 -26 123 26 59 122 41 19 123 51 30 122 16 37 0.62
122 39 2 -31 0 0 18 23 25.2 44 16 -27 123 1 40 122 16 21 123 25 59 121 51 51 0.62
122 13 28 -30 0 0 18 23 44.0 45 17 -28 122 35 56 121 50 58 123 0 4 121 26 39 0.61
121 47 29 -29 0 0 18 24 3.1 45 18 -29 122 9 47 121 25 8 122 33 45 121 0 59 0.61
121 21 4 -28 0 0 18 24 22.6 46 19 -30 121 43 13 120 58 52 122 7 2 120 34 53 0.61
120 54 13 -27 0 0 18 24 42.4 47 20 -31 121 16 14 120 32 9 121 39 54 120 8 18 0.61
120 26 55 -26 0 0 18 25 2.5 48 20 -32 120 48 49 120 4 58 121 12 20 119 41 16 0.61
119 59 10 -25 0 0 18 25 22.9 49 21 -33 120 20 57 119 37 20 120 44 21 119 13 45 0.61
119 30 57 -24 0 0 18 25 43.6 50 22 -34 119 52 38 119 9 14 120 15 55 118 45 45 0.61
119 2 16 -23 0 0 18 26 4.6 50 23 -35 119 23 51 118 40 38 119 47 3 118 17 16 0.61
118 33 7 -22 0 0 18 26 25.9 51 24 -36 118 54 36 118 11 34 119 17 42 117 48 17 0.61
118 3 28 -21 0 0 18 26 47.6 52 26 -37 118 24 53 117 41 59 118 47 54 117 18 47 0.60
117 33 18 -20 0 0 18 27 9.4 53 27 -38 117 54 40 117 11 53 118 17 37 116 48 45 0.60
117 2 38 -19 0 0 18 27 31.6 53 28 -39 117 23 56 116 41 17 117 46 50 116 18 12 0.60
116 31 26 -18 0 0 18 27 54.1 54 29 -40 116 52 42 116 10 8 117 15 32 115 47 6 0.60
115 59 42 -17 0 0 18 28 16.8 55 30 -41 116 20 56 115 38 26 116 43 44 115 15 26 0.60
115 27 25 -16 0 0 18 28 39.8 55 32 -42 115 48 37 115 6 10 116 11 23 114 43 11 0.60
114 54 33 -15 0 0 18 29 3.0 56 33 -43 115 15 44 114 33 19 115 38 29 114 10 22 0.59
114 21 6 -14 0 0 18 29 26.5 56 35 -44 114 42 17 113 59 52 115 5 1 113 36 55 0.59
113 47 3 -13 0 0 18 29 50.3 57 36 -45 114 8 14 113 25 49 114 30 58 113 2 51 0.59
113 12 22 -12 0 0 18 30 14.3 57 38 -46 113 33 34 112 51 7 113 56 19 112 28 9 0.59
112 37 3 -11 0 0 18 30 38.5 58 40 -47 112 58 16 112 15 47 113 21 3 111 52 46 0.59
112 1 4 -10 0 0 18 31 3.0 58 41 -48 112 22 19 111 39 45 112 45 8 111 16 43 0.58
111 24 23 - 9 0 0 18 31 27.6 59 43 -49 111 45 41 111 3 2 112 8 32 110 39 56 0.58
110 47 0 - 8 0 0 18 31 52.6 59 45 -50 111 8 20 110 25 35 111 31 16 110 2 26 0.58
110 8 52 - 7 0 0 18 32 17.7 59 47 -51 110 30 17 109 47 23 110 53 16 109 24 9 0.58
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2019 Nov 15.0
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