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Updated: 2019 NOV 15, 21:07 UT
Event Rank : 75
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Jan 08 UT, the 46.3 km diameter asteroid (132) Aethra will occult a 10.8 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a path across Australia from north-eastern Northern Territory to south-eastern Western Australia, neatly avoiding any towns of any consequence.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.89 mag to 11.10 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 0688-00557-1 by 132 Aethra on 2020 Jan 8
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
123 7 44 -38 0 0 15 53 26.1 31 319 -30 122 42 10 123 33 28 122 11 41 124 4 35 1.24
123 20 27 -37 0 0 15 53 17.6 32 319 -31 122 55 9 123 45 56 122 24 59 124 16 43 1.24
123 34 34 -36 0 0 15 53 8.8 33 318 -32 123 9 30 123 59 48 122 39 37 124 30 18 1.24
123 50 3 -35 0 0 15 52 59.8 33 318 -33 123 25 12 124 15 4 122 55 35 124 45 18 1.24
124 6 52 -34 0 0 15 52 50.7 34 317 -34 123 42 13 124 31 42 123 12 50 125 1 41 1.23
124 25 1 -33 0 0 15 52 41.4 34 316 -35 124 0 32 124 49 39 123 31 21 125 19 26 1.23
124 44 27 -32 0 0 15 52 31.9 35 315 -36 124 20 7 125 8 57 123 51 8 125 38 33 1.23
125 5 11 -31 0 0 15 52 22.2 36 315 -37 124 40 59 125 29 33 124 12 9 125 58 59 1.23
125 27 12 -30 0 0 15 52 12.4 36 314 -38 125 3 7 125 51 27 124 34 25 126 20 45 1.23
125 50 30 -29 0 0 15 52 2.4 36 313 -39 125 26 31 126 14 39 124 57 55 126 43 51 1.23
126 15 5 -28 0 0 15 51 52.2 37 312 -40 125 51 10 126 39 10 125 22 40 127 8 16 1.23
126 40 57 -27 0 0 15 51 41.9 37 311 -41 126 17 5 127 4 58 125 48 39 127 34 1 1.23
127 8 6 -26 0 0 15 51 31.4 38 310 -42 126 44 17 127 32 6 126 15 53 128 1 7 1.23
127 36 35 -25 0 0 15 51 20.7 38 309 -43 127 12 46 128 0 34 126 44 24 128 29 34 1.23
128 6 23 -24 0 0 15 51 9.9 38 308 -44 127 42 34 128 30 23 127 14 12 128 59 23 1.23
128 37 33 -23 0 0 15 50 58.9 39 307 -45 128 13 42 129 1 34 127 45 18 129 30 37 1.22
129 10 5 -22 0 0 15 50 47.8 39 306 -46 128 46 11 129 34 9 128 17 44 130 3 17 1.22
129 44 2 -21 0 0 15 50 36.5 39 305 -46 129 20 4 130 8 11 128 51 32 130 37 24 1.22
130 19 27 -20 0 0 15 50 25.0 39 304 -47 129 55 23 130 43 42 129 26 45 131 13 3 1.22
130 56 22 -19 0 0 15 50 13.4 39 303 -48 130 32 11 131 20 44 130 3 24 131 50 14 1.22
131 34 50 -18 0 0 15 50 1.6 39 302 -49 131 10 30 131 59 21 130 41 34 132 29 3 1.22
132 14 55 -17 0 0 15 49 49.7 39 301 -50 131 50 25 132 39 37 131 21 16 133 9 33 1.22
132 56 41 -16 0 0 15 49 37.6 39 300 -51 132 31 59 133 21 36 132 2 36 133 51 47 1.22
133 40 13 -15 0 0 15 49 25.4 39 298 -52 133 15 17 134 5 23 132 45 38 134 35 53 1.22
134 25 37 -14 0 0 15 49 13.0 39 297 -52 134 0 24 134 51 3 133 30 26 135 21 54 1.22
135 12 57 -13 0 0 15 49 0.5 39 296 -53 134 47 26 135 38 43 134 17 7 136 9 58 1.21
136 2 22 -12 0 0 15 48 47.8 39 295 -54 135 36 30 136 28 31 135 5 46 137 0 13 1.21
136 54 0 -11 0 0 15 48 34.9 38 294 -55 136 27 43 137 20 33 135 56 32 137 52 48 1.21
137 48 0 -10 0 0 15 48 21.9 38 293 -55 137 21 16 138 15 2 136 49 33 138 47 52 1.21
138 44 33 - 9 0 0 15 48 8.7 38 292 -56 138 17 17 139 12 7 137 44 59 139 45 38 1.21
139 43 51 - 8 0 0 15 47 55.3 37 290 -56 139 16 0 140 12 2 138 43 1 140 46 19 1.21
140 46 9 - 7 0 0 15 47 41.8 36 289 -57 140 17 38 141 15 3 139 43 52 141 50 13 1.21
141 51 45 - 6 0 0 15 47 28.1 36 288 -57 141 22 28 142 21 28 140 47 49 142 57 40 1.21
143 1 1 - 5 0 0 15 47 14.2 35 287 -57 142 30 50 143 31 40 141 55 11 144 9 4 1.21
144 14 22 - 4 0 0 15 47 0.0 34 286 -58 143 43 9 144 46 7 143 6 19 145 24 54 1.21
145 32 21 - 3 0 0 15 46 45.7 33 285 -58 144 59 54 146 5 23 144 21 42 146 45 49 1.21
146 55 38 - 2 0 0 15 46 31.1 32 285 -58 146 21 44 147 30 12 145 41 54 148 12 37 1.22
148 25 5 - 1 0 0 15 46 16.2 31 284 -57 147 49 26 149 1 31 147 7 39 149 46 22 1.22
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2019 Nov 15.0
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