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Updated: 2019 Oct 31, 05:15 UT
Event Rank : 60
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Dec 24 UT, the 40 km diameter asteroid (3248) Farinella will occult a 10.7 mag star in the constellation Perseus for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across south-eastern Queensland, western New South Wales, north-western Victoria and south-eastern South Australia, passing over Harvey Bay, Mildura and Murray Bridge.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.11 mag to 15.82 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-623-014811 by 3248 Farinella on 2019 Dec 24
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
137 14 17 -38 0 0 11 14 41.9 15 20 -11 136 46 6 137 42 38 135 52 29 138 37 34 1.20
138 15 44 -37 0 0 11 14 36.6 16 19 -12 137 47 32 138 44 7 136 53 54 139 39 7 1.21
139 18 39 -36 0 0 11 14 30.8 17 18 -13 138 50 23 139 47 5 137 56 40 140 42 14 1.21
140 23 6 -35 0 0 11 14 24.5 18 17 -14 139 54 46 140 51 39 139 0 53 141 47 1 1.21
141 29 14 -34 0 0 11 14 17.6 19 17 -16 141 0 45 141 57 55 140 6 38 142 53 36 1.22
142 37 9 -33 0 0 11 14 10.2 21 16 -17 142 8 30 143 6 2 141 14 4 144 2 6 1.22
143 47 0 -32 0 0 11 14 2.3 22 15 -18 143 18 7 144 16 7 142 23 18 145 12 40 1.22
144 58 56 -31 0 0 11 13 53.7 23 14 -20 144 29 47 145 28 20 143 34 27 146 25 29 1.22
146 13 8 -30 0 0 11 13 44.5 24 13 -21 145 43 38 146 42 53 144 47 43 147 40 44 1.22
147 29 47 -29 0 0 11 13 34.6 25 12 -23 146 59 54 147 59 57 146 3 16 148 58 40 1.23
148 49 8 -28 0 0 11 13 24.1 27 11 -24 148 18 47 149 19 47 147 21 19 150 19 30 1.23
150 11 28 -27 0 0 11 13 12.8 28 10 -26 149 40 34 150 42 41 148 42 6 151 43 35 1.23
151 37 4 -26 0 0 11 13 0.7 29 9 -27 151 5 31 152 8 58 150 5 54 153 11 15 1.23
153 6 19 -25 0 0 11 12 47.8 30 7 -29 152 34 1 153 39 1 151 33 3 154 42 56 1.23
154 39 42 -24 0 0 11 12 33.9 31 6 -31 154 6 30 155 13 20 153 3 55 156 19 11 1.23
156 17 44 -23 0 0 11 12 19.1 32 5 -32 155 43 28 156 52 28 154 39 1 158 0 39 1.23
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2019 Oct 31.0
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