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Updated: 2019 Oct 15, 04:29 UT
Event Rank : 95
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Dec 15 UT, the 50 km diameter asteroid (347) Pariana will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across Tasmania, south-western Victoria, South Australia and central West Australia, passing over Lorne, Colac, Murray Bridge and Adelaide.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.73 mag to 12.20 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.3 seconds. This event may be difficult to observe visually.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-574-025511 by 347 Pariana on 2019 Dec 15
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
.. .. .. -62 0 0 .. .. .... .. .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. ... .. .. 170 46 56 ....
171 16 28 -61 0 0 15 17 44.8 1 332 1 172 11 37 170 21 2 172 51 11 169 40 59 ....
170 8 25 -60 0 0 15 17 45.3 2 333 0 171 2 15 169 14 19 171 40 51 168 35 13 0.87
169 0 40 -59 0 0 15 17 46.1 3 334 -2 169 53 16 168 7 46 170 30 59 167 29 32 1.06
167 53 3 -58 0 0 15 17 47.3 4 335 -3 168 44 34 167 1 16 169 21 29 166 23 49 1.15
166 45 29 -57 0 0 15 17 48.9 6 336 -4 167 35 59 165 54 42 168 12 10 165 17 58 1.21
165 37 50 -56 0 0 15 17 50.9 7 337 -5 166 27 25 164 47 58 167 2 56 164 11 53 1.24
164 30 1 -55 0 0 15 17 53.3 8 338 -6 165 18 46 163 40 58 165 53 41 163 5 29 1.27
163 21 54 -54 0 0 15 17 56.1 9 339 -7 164 9 54 162 33 36 164 44 17 161 58 39 1.29
162 13 25 -53 0 0 15 17 59.3 10 340 -9 163 0 44 161 25 47 163 34 37 160 51 18 1.30
161 4 26 -52 0 0 15 18 3.0 11 341 -10 161 51 10 160 17 24 162 24 37 159 43 21 1.31
159 54 54 -51 0 0 15 18 7.1 13 342 -11 160 41 5 159 8 23 161 14 9 158 34 41 1.32
158 44 41 -50 0 0 15 18 11.6 14 343 -12 159 30 24 157 58 37 160 3 8 157 25 15 1.33
157 33 41 -49 0 0 15 18 16.6 15 344 -14 158 19 1 156 48 1 158 51 27 156 14 55 1.33
156 21 49 -48 0 0 15 18 22.1 16 345 -15 157 6 50 155 36 28 157 39 1 155 3 36 1.34
155 8 59 -47 0 0 15 18 28.0 17 346 -16 155 53 43 154 23 53 156 25 42 153 51 12 1.34
153 55 3 -46 0 0 15 18 34.5 18 347 -17 154 39 35 153 10 9 155 11 25 152 37 35 1.35
152 39 55 -45 0 0 15 18 41.4 20 348 -19 153 24 19 151 55 9 153 56 3 151 22 40 1.35
151 23 28 -44 0 0 15 18 48.9 21 349 -20 152 7 47 150 38 44 152 39 27 150 6 17 1.35
150 5 32 -43 0 0 15 18 56.9 22 350 -21 150 49 52 149 20 48 151 21 31 148 48 19 1.36
148 46 1 -42 0 0 15 19 5.4 23 351 -22 149 30 24 148 1 11 150 2 5 147 28 37 1.36
147 24 43 -41 0 0 15 19 14.5 24 353 -24 148 9 15 146 39 42 148 41 2 146 7 0 1.36
146 1 28 -40 0 0 15 19 24.2 25 354 -25 146 46 14 145 16 12 147 18 10 144 43 18 1.36
144 36 5 -39 0 0 15 19 34.5 26 355 -26 145 21 10 143 50 28 145 53 18 143 17 17 1.36
143 8 19 -38 0 0 15 19 45.5 27 357 -27 143 53 49 142 22 15 144 26 14 141 48 44 1.36
141 37 57 -37 0 0 15 19 57.1 28 358 -29 142 23 58 140 51 19 142 56 44 140 17 21 1.36
140 4 39 -36 0 0 15 20 9.4 29 360 -30 140 51 19 139 17 19 141 24 32 138 42 49 1.37
138 28 6 -35 0 0 15 20 22.5 30 1 -31 139 15 34 137 39 55 139 49 19 137 4 46 1.37
136 47 53 -34 0 0 15 20 36.4 31 3 -32 137 36 19 135 58 40 138 10 42 135 22 43 1.37
135 3 31 -33 0 0 15 20 51.2 32 5 -34 135 53 6 134 13 4 136 28 17 133 36 9 1.37
133 14 25 -32 0 0 15 21 6.8 33 7 -35 134 5 24 132 22 27 134 41 31 131 44 23 1.37
131 19 50 -31 0 0 15 21 23.5 34 9 -36 132 12 31 130 26 2 132 49 47 129 46 33 1.37
129 18 51 -30 0 0 15 21 41.4 35 11 -37 130 13 36 128 22 46 130 52 15 127 41 32 1.37
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
112 0 0 -23 46 30 15 24 14.9 35 30 -41 -23 22 38 -24 10 37 -23 5 35 -24 28 8 1.37
111 0 0 -23 32 38 15 24 23.4 35 31 -41 -23 8 51 -23 56 39 -22 51 52 -24 14 6 1.37
110 0 0 -23 19 35 15 24 31.9 35 32 -40 -22 55 53 -23 43 32 -22 38 58 -24 0 54 1.37
109 0 0 -23 7 23 15 24 40.3 34 33 -40 -22 43 45 -23 31 15 -22 26 53 -23 48 34 1.37
108 0 0 -22 56 1 15 24 48.6 34 34 -40 -22 32 27 -23 19 48 -22 15 38 -23 37 4 1.37
107 0 0 -22 45 28 15 24 56.8 34 35 -40 -22 21 58 -23 9 11 -22 5 12 -23 26 24 1.37
106 0 0 -22 35 45 15 25 4.9 33 36 -40 -22 12 19 -22 59 25 -21 55 35 -23 16 35 1.37
105 0 0 -22 26 53 15 25 12.9 33 37 -39 -22 3 30 -22 50 29 -21 46 48 -23 7 37 1.37
104 0 0 -22 18 50 15 25 20.8 32 38 -39 -21 55 30 -22 42 23 -21 38 50 -22 59 29 1.38
103 0 0 -22 11 37 15 25 28.6 32 38 -39 -21 48 19 -22 35 7 -21 31 41 -22 52 11 1.38
102 0 0 -22 5 14 15 25 36.4 31 39 -38 -21 41 58 -22 28 42 -21 25 22 -22 45 44 1.38
101 0 0 -21 59 41 15 25 44.0 31 40 -38 -21 36 27 -22 23 7 -21 19 52 -22 40 8 1.38
100 0 0 -21 54 57 15 25 51.4 30 41 -38 -21 31 45 -22 18 22 -21 15 11 -22 35 22 1.38
99 0 0 -21 51 4 15 25 58.8 30 42 -37 -21 27 53 -22 14 28 -21 11 20 -22 31 27 1.38
98 0 0 -21 48 1 15 26 6.1 29 42 -37 -21 24 51 -22 11 24 -21 8 18 -22 28 22 1.38
97 0 0 -21 45 48 15 26 13.2 29 43 -36 -21 22 38 -22 9 10 -21 6 6 -22 26 8 1.38
96 0 0 -21 44 25 15 26 20.2 28 44 -36 -21 21 15 -22 7 47 -21 4 43 -22 24 44 1.38
95 0 0 -21 43 52 15 26 27.0 28 45 -35 -21 20 42 -22 7 14 -21 4 10 -22 24 12 1.38
94 0 0 -21 44 9 15 26 33.7 27 45 -35 -21 20 59 -22 7 32 -21 4 26 -22 24 30 1.38
93 0 0 -21 45 17 15 26 40.3 26 46 -34 -21 22 6 -22 8 41 -21 5 33 -22 25 39 1.39
92 0 0 -21 47 15 15 26 46.7 26 47 -34 -21 24 3 -22 10 40 -21 7 29 -22 27 40 1.39
91 0 0 -21 50 4 15 26 53.0 25 47 -33 -21 26 51 -22 13 31 -21 10 15 -22 30 31 1.39
90 0 0 -21 53 44 15 26 59.1 24 48 -32 -21 30 28 -22 17 12 -21 13 52 -22 34 14 1.39
89 0 0 -21 58 14 15 27 5.0 23 48 -32 -21 34 57 -22 21 45 -21 18 18 -22 38 49 1.39
88 0 0 -22 3 36 15 27 10.8 23 49 -31 -21 40 15 -22 27 9 -21 23 36 -22 44 15 1.39
87 0 0 -22 9 48 15 27 16.4 22 50 -30 -21 46 25 -22 33 25 -21 29 43 -22 50 33 1.39
86 0 0 -22 16 52 15 27 21.9 21 50 -30 -21 53 26 -22 40 32 -21 36 42 -22 57 42 1.40
85 0 0 -22 24 48 15 27 27.1 20 51 -29 -22 1 18 -22 48 31 -21 44 31 -23 5 44 1.40
84 0 0 -22 33 35 15 27 32.2 20 51 -28 -22 10 1 -22 57 22 -21 53 11 -23 14 39 1.40
83 0 0 -22 43 14 15 27 37.1 19 52 -27 -22 19 36 -23 7 6 -22 2 43 -23 24 25 1.40
82 0 0 -22 53 45 15 27 41.8 18 52 -27 -22 30 2 -23 17 42 -22 13 6 -23 35 5 1.40
81 0 0 -23 5 9 15 27 46.4 17 53 -26 -22 41 20 -23 29 11 -22 24 21 -23 46 38 1.41
80 0 0 -23 17 24 15 27 50.7 16 53 -25 -22 53 31 -23 41 32 -22 36 28 -23 59 3 1.41
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2019 Oct 15.0
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