|
|
Updated: 2019 Oct 15, 04:04 UT
Event Rank : 74
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Dec 06 UT, the 46 km diameter asteroid (132) Aethra will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, running from Marlborough to Kingston SE, passing over Mildura.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.47 mag to 11.37 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.5 seconds. This event will be difficult to observe visually.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-562-018577 by 132 Aethra on 2019 Dec 6
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
137 36 36 -41 0 0 14 54 18.8 26 9 -27 137 15 4 137 58 10 136 48 42 138 24 38 0.59
138 15 19 -40 0 0 14 54 13.9 27 8 -28 137 54 3 138 36 37 137 28 1 139 2 46 0.59
138 53 57 -39 0 0 14 54 8.8 28 7 -28 138 32 56 139 15 0 138 7 12 139 40 50 0.59
139 32 32 -38 0 0 14 54 3.5 29 7 -29 139 11 45 139 53 21 138 46 18 140 18 54 0.59
140 11 6 -37 0 0 14 53 58.1 30 6 -30 139 50 32 140 31 42 139 25 22 140 56 59 0.60
140 49 41 -36 0 0 14 53 52.4 32 6 -31 140 29 19 141 10 4 140 4 24 141 35 6 0.60
141 28 18 -35 0 0 14 53 46.6 33 5 -32 141 8 8 141 48 31 140 43 27 142 13 18 0.60
142 7 1 -34 0 0 14 53 40.6 34 4 -33 141 47 1 142 27 2 141 22 33 142 51 37 0.60
142 45 49 -33 0 0 14 53 34.4 35 4 -34 142 25 59 143 5 40 142 1 44 143 30 3 0.60
143 24 45 -32 0 0 14 53 28.0 36 3 -35 143 5 5 143 44 28 142 41 1 144 8 39 0.60
144 3 51 -31 0 0 14 53 21.5 37 2 -36 143 44 19 144 23 25 143 20 26 144 47 27 0.60
144 43 9 -30 0 0 14 53 14.7 38 2 -37 144 23 44 145 2 35 144 0 1 145 26 27 0.60
145 22 39 -29 0 0 14 53 7.8 39 1 -38 145 3 22 145 41 58 144 39 47 146 5 42 0.60
146 2 24 -28 0 0 14 53 0.7 40 0 -38 145 43 13 146 21 37 145 19 46 146 45 13 0.60
146 42 25 -27 0 0 14 52 53.4 41 360 -39 146 23 20 147 1 32 146 0 0 147 25 1 0.60
147 22 45 -26 0 0 14 52 46.0 42 359 -40 147 3 45 147 41 47 146 40 31 148 5 9 0.60
148 3 23 -25 0 0 14 52 38.3 43 358 -41 147 44 28 148 22 21 147 21 20 148 45 38 0.60
148 44 24 -24 0 0 14 52 30.5 44 357 -42 148 25 32 149 3 17 148 2 29 149 26 30 0.60
149 25 47 -23 0 0 14 52 22.6 45 356 -42 149 6 59 149 44 38 148 44 0 150 7 46 0.60
150 7 35 -22 0 0 14 52 14.4 46 355 -43 149 48 50 150 26 23 149 25 54 150 49 29 0.60
150 49 50 -21 0 0 14 52 6.1 46 354 -44 150 31 6 151 8 36 150 8 13 151 31 40 0.60
151 32 33 -20 0 0 14 51 57.6 47 353 -45 151 13 51 151 51 18 150 50 59 152 14 20 0.60
152 15 47 -19 0 0 14 51 48.9 48 352 -45 151 57 5 152 34 31 151 34 15 152 57 32 0.60
152 59 33 -18 0 0 14 51 40.1 49 351 -46 152 40 52 153 18 17 152 18 1 153 41 19 0.59
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2019 Oct 15.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]