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Updated: 2019 JUL 21, 08:18 UT
Event Rank : 94
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Nov 28 UT, the 50.5 km diameter asteroid (347) Pariana will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a narrow path across New Zealand grazing the northern coast of the North Island near Hicks Bay, Coromandel and Mangonui, and across northern Australia from Tully across northern Queensland and The Northern Territory to just south of Darwin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.35 mag to 12.72 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Path Coordinates:
Occultation of TYC 1879-00902-1 by 347 Pariana on 2019 Nov 28
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
179 21 46 -39 0 0 14 8 47 28 359 -22 179 57 15 178 46 4 -179 36 32 178 19 23 1.16
178 16 3 -38 0 0 14 9 0 29 360 -23 178 51 29 177 40 22 179 17 39 177 13 43 1.16
177 9 8 -37 0 0 14 9 13 30 1 -24 177 44 34 176 33 28 178 10 43 176 6 48 1.16
176 0 58 -36 0 0 14 9 27 31 2 -26 176 36 25 175 25 14 177 2 36 174 58 32 1.16
174 51 25 -35 0 0 14 9 41 32 3 -27 175 26 57 174 15 36 175 53 11 173 48 49 1.16
173 40 23 -34 0 0 14 9 56 33 5 -28 174 16 4 173 4 26 174 42 22 172 37 32 1.16
172 27 46 -33 0 0 14 10 11 34 6 -30 173 3 37 171 51 37 173 30 3 171 24 34 1.16
171 13 25 -32 0 0 14 10 28 35 7 -31 171 49 29 170 37 1 172 16 5 170 9 47 1.16
169 57 11 -31 0 0 14 10 44 36 9 -32 170 33 32 169 20 29 171 0 20 168 53 0 1.16
168 38 54 -30 0 0 14 11 2 36 10 -34 169 15 37 168 1 50 169 42 40 167 34 4 1.15
167 18 24 -29 0 0 14 11 20 37 12 -35 167 55 32 166 40 54 168 22 53 166 12 47 1.15
165 55 29 -28 0 0 14 11 39 38 13 -36 166 33 6 165 17 26 167 0 48 164 48 55 1.15
164 29 52 -27 0 0 14 11 59 39 15 -38 165 8 5 163 51 13 165 36 12 163 22 13 1.15
163 1 19 -26 0 0 14 12 19 39 17 -39 163 40 13 162 21 56 164 8 49 161 52 22 1.15
161 29 29 -25 0 0 14 12 40 40 19 -41 162 9 11 160 49 15 162 38 21 160 19 1 1.15
159 53 59 -24 0 0 14 13 2 40 21 -42 160 34 38 159 12 45 161 4 28 158 41 45 1.15
158 14 22 -23 0 0 14 13 26 41 23 -44 158 56 7 157 31 58 159 26 45 157 0 2 1.15
156 30 4 -22 0 0 14 13 50 41 25 -45 157 13 8 155 46 16 157 44 41 155 13 14 1.15
154 40 22 -21 0 0 14 14 15 41 27 -46 155 25 1 153 54 54 155 57 39 153 20 33 1.15
152 44 25 -20 0 0 14 14 42 41 30 -48 153 30 56 151 56 55 154 4 54 151 20 58 1.15
150 41 2 -19 0 0 14 15 10 41 32 -49 151 29 52 149 51 2 152 5 26 149 13 5 1.15
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
149 0 0 -18 13 48 14 15 32 41 34 -50 -17 50 57 -18 36 51 -17 34 5 -18 54 6 1.15
148 0 0 -17 47 36 14 15 46 41 35 -51 -17 24 54 -18 10 30 -17 8 10 -18 27 37 1.14
147 0 0 -17 22 20 14 15 59 41 36 -51 -16 59 46 -17 45 4 -16 43 8 -18 2 5 1.14
146 0 0 -16 57 58 14 16 12 40 37 -52 -16 35 33 -17 20 34 -16 19 1 -17 37 28 1.14
145 0 0 -16 34 31 14 16 25 40 38 -52 -16 12 14 -16 56 58 -15 55 48 -17 13 46 1.14
144 0 0 -16 11 59 14 16 38 40 40 -53 -15 49 50 -16 34 18 -15 33 29 -16 51 0 1.14
143 0 0 -15 50 21 14 16 51 39 41 -53 -15 28 19 -16 12 33 -15 12 4 -16 29 9 1.14
142 0 0 -15 29 37 14 17 3 39 42 -53 -15 7 42 -15 51 42 -14 51 32 -16 8 13 1.14
141 0 0 -15 9 47 14 17 16 39 43 -54 -14 47 59 -15 31 45 -14 31 54 -15 48 11 1.14
140 0 0 -14 50 51 14 17 28 38 43 -54 -14 29 9 -15 12 43 -14 13 8 -15 29 4 1.14
139 0 0 -14 32 49 14 17 40 38 44 -54 -14 11 13 -14 54 34 -13 55 16 -15 10 51 1.14
138 0 0 -14 15 40 14 17 52 37 45 -54 -13 54 9 -14 37 20 -13 38 17 -14 53 32 1.14
137 0 0 -13 59 24 14 18 4 37 46 -54 -13 37 59 -14 20 59 -13 22 10 -14 37 7 1.14
136 0 0 -13 44 2 14 18 16 37 47 -54 -13 22 41 -14 5 32 -13 6 56 -14 21 36 1.14
135 0 0 -13 29 32 14 18 27 36 48 -55 -13 8 16 -13 50 58 -12 52 34 -14 6 58 1.14
134 0 0 -13 15 56 14 18 39 35 49 -55 -12 54 44 -13 37 17 -12 39 5 -13 53 15 1.15
133 0 0 -13 3 12 14 18 50 35 49 -55 -12 42 4 -13 24 29 -12 26 28 -13 40 24 1.15
132 0 0 -12 51 21 14 19 1 34 50 -54 -12 30 17 -13 12 35 -12 14 43 -13 28 27 1.15
131 0 0 -12 40 23 14 19 12 34 51 -54 -12 19 22 -13 1 34 -12 3 51 -13 17 23 1.15
130 0 0 -12 30 18 14 19 23 33 51 -54 -12 9 19 -12 51 25 -11 53 50 -13 7 12 1.15
129 0 0 -12 21 5 14 19 33 32 52 -54 -12 0 9 -12 42 10 -11 44 42 -12 57 55 1.15
128 0 0 -12 12 45 14 19 43 32 53 -54 -11 51 51 -12 33 47 -11 36 26 -12 49 30 1.15
127 0 0 -12 5 17 14 19 53 31 53 -54 -11 44 26 -12 26 17 -11 29 2 -12 41 59 1.15
126 0 0 -11 58 42 14 20 3 30 54 -53 -11 37 52 -12 19 41 -11 22 29 -12 35 21 1.15
125 0 0 -11 53 0 14 20 13 30 54 -53 -11 32 11 -12 13 57 -11 16 49 -12 29 36 1.15
124 0 0 -11 48 10 14 20 22 29 55 -53 -11 27 22 -12 9 6 -11 12 1 -12 24 45 1.15
123 0 0 -11 44 13 14 20 32 28 56 -52 -11 23 26 -12 5 8 -11 8 6 -12 20 46 1.16
122 0 0 -11 41 8 14 20 41 28 56 -52 -11 20 22 -12 2 3 -11 5 2 -12 17 41 1.16
121 0 0 -11 38 57 14 20 49 27 57 -51 -11 18 11 -11 59 52 -11 2 51 -12 15 29 1.16
120 0 0 -11 37 39 14 20 58 26 57 -51 -11 16 53 -11 58 33 -11 1 33 -12 14 11 1.16
119 0 0 -11 37 13 14 21 6 25 57 -50 -11 16 27 -11 58 9 -11 1 7 -12 13 47 1.16
118 0 0 -11 37 42 14 21 14 24 58 -50 -11 16 54 -11 58 38 -11 1 33 -12 14 16 1.16
117 0 0 -11 39 3 14 21 22 24 58 -49 -11 18 15 -12 0 0 -11 2 53 -12 15 40 1.16
116 0 0 -11 41 18 14 21 30 23 59 -49 -11 20 29 -12 2 17 -11 5 6 -12 17 57 1.17
115 0 0 -11 44 27 14 21 37 22 59 -48 -11 23 36 -12 5 28 -11 8 12 -12 21 9 1.17
114 0 0 -11 48 31 14 21 44 21 59 -47 -11 27 37 -12 9 33 -11 12 12 -12 25 16 1.17
113 0 0 -11 53 28 14 21 51 20 60 -47 -11 32 32 -12 14 33 -11 17 5 -12 30 18 1.17
112 0 0 -11 59 20 14 21 58 19 60 -46 -11 38 22 -12 20 28 -11 22 53 -12 36 15 1.17
111 0 0 -12 6 7 14 22 4 18 60 -45 -11 45 6 -12 27 18 -11 29 35 -12 43 7 1.18
110 0 0 -12 13 50 14 22 10 18 61 -44 -11 52 45 -12 35 3 -11 37 12 -12 50 56 1.18
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 21.0
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