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Updated: 2019 JUL 21, 07:49 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Nov 15 UT, the 138 km diameter asteroid (70) Panopaea will occult a 10.2 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a fairly broad path across New Zealand including Wellington and Picton, and across northern Australia from Bundaberg and Rockhamton across northern Queensland, The Northern Territory and Western Australia to Broome.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.56 mag to 12.68 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 13.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Path Coordinates:
Occultation of TYC 2405-00601-1 by 70 Panopaea on 2019 Nov 15
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
176 53 47 -45 0 0 14 47 11 14 356 -16 178 45 3 174 59 13 179 14 43 174 27 32 1.54
176 9 28 -44 0 0 14 47 16 15 356 -17 178 0 9 174 15 28 178 29 38 173 43 55 1.55
175 23 24 -43 0 0 14 47 22 16 357 -18 177 13 38 173 29 48 177 43 0 172 58 21 1.55
174 35 34 -42 0 0 14 47 28 17 358 -19 176 25 29 172 42 12 176 54 45 172 10 48 1.56
173 45 53 -41 0 0 14 47 35 18 358 -20 175 35 38 171 52 36 176 4 51 171 21 12 1.56
172 54 18 -40 0 0 14 47 42 19 359 -21 174 44 3 171 0 55 175 13 14 170 29 28 1.56
172 0 44 -39 0 0 14 47 50 20 360 -23 173 50 38 170 7 5 174 19 51 169 35 32 1.56
171 5 7 -38 0 0 14 47 58 21 1 -24 172 55 20 169 10 59 173 24 37 168 39 17 1.57
170 7 19 -37 0 0 14 48 7 22 1 -25 171 58 2 168 12 32 172 27 26 167 40 37 1.57
169 7 14 -36 0 0 14 48 16 23 2 -26 170 58 38 167 11 33 171 28 12 166 39 21 1.57
168 4 42 -35 0 0 14 48 26 24 3 -28 169 57 1 166 7 53 170 26 47 165 35 20 1.57
166 59 34 -34 0 0 14 48 37 25 4 -29 168 53 2 165 1 21 169 23 4 164 28 22 1.57
165 51 39 -33 0 0 14 48 48 25 5 -30 167 46 30 163 51 43 168 16 52 163 18 12 1.57
164 40 41 -32 0 0 14 49 0 26 6 -32 166 37 13 162 38 41 167 8 0 162 4 32 1.57
163 26 25 -31 0 0 14 49 12 27 8 -33 165 24 59 161 21 57 165 56 14 160 47 1 1.57
162 8 32 -30 0 0 14 49 26 28 9 -34 164 9 30 160 1 5 164 41 20 159 25 14 1.57
160 46 36 -29 0 0 14 49 40 29 10 -36 162 50 27 158 35 35 163 22 58 157 58 37 1.57
159 20 8 -28 0 0 14 49 55 30 12 -37 161 27 25 157 4 50 162 0 46 156 26 31 1.57
157 48 31 -27 0 0 14 50 11 30 13 -39 159 59 57 155 28 0 160 34 16 154 48 1 1.57
156 10 59 -26 0 0 14 50 28 31 15 -40 158 27 25 153 44 2 159 2 54 153 1 59 1.57
154 26 29 -25 0 0 14 50 47 31 17 -42 156 49 3 151 51 28 157 25 58 151 6 45 1.57
152 33 38 -24 0 0 14 51 7 32 18 -44 155 3 52 149 48 13 155 42 31 149 0 0 1.57
150 30 28 -23 0 0 14 51 28 32 20 -45 153 10 30 147 31 10 153 51 21 146 38 5 1.57
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
149 0 0 -22 19 28 14 51 44 32 22 -46 -21 3 51 -23 38 6 -20 43 49 -24 0 0 1.57
148 0 0 -21 54 12 14 51 54 32 23 -47 -20 39 16 -23 12 3 -20 19 25 -23 33 43 1.57
147 0 0 -21 30 12 14 52 5 32 24 -48 -20 15 55 -22 47 19 -19 56 13 -23 8 47 1.57
146 0 0 -21 7 27 14 52 15 32 25 -48 -19 53 46 -22 23 54 -19 34 13 -22 45 9 1.57
145 0 0 -20 45 55 14 52 25 32 26 -49 -19 32 49 -22 1 45 -19 13 24 -22 22 50 1.57
144 0 0 -20 25 38 14 52 35 32 27 -50 -19 13 2 -21 40 52 -18 53 46 -22 1 47 1.57
143 0 0 -20 6 32 14 52 45 32 28 -50 -18 54 25 -21 21 14 -18 35 16 -21 41 59 1.57
142 0 0 -19 48 38 14 52 55 32 29 -51 -18 36 58 -21 2 51 -18 17 56 -21 23 27 1.57
141 0 0 -19 31 55 14 53 5 32 30 -51 -18 20 40 -20 45 41 -18 1 44 -21 6 9 1.57
140 0 0 -19 16 23 14 53 15 32 30 -52 -18 5 31 -20 29 43 -17 46 40 -20 50 4 1.57
139 0 0 -19 2 1 14 53 24 31 31 -52 -17 51 29 -20 14 58 -17 32 44 -20 35 12 1.57
138 0 0 -18 48 48 14 53 34 31 32 -52 -17 38 34 -20 1 24 -17 19 54 -20 21 33 1.57
137 0 0 -18 36 44 14 53 43 31 33 -53 -17 26 47 -19 49 2 -17 8 11 -20 9 5 1.57
136 0 0 -18 25 48 14 53 53 30 34 -53 -17 16 7 -19 37 50 -16 57 35 -19 57 48 1.58
135 0 0 -18 16 1 14 54 2 30 35 -53 -17 6 33 -19 27 48 -16 48 4 -19 47 42 1.58
134 0 0 -18 7 22 14 54 11 30 35 -53 -16 58 5 -19 18 56 -16 39 39 -19 38 47 1.58
133 0 0 -17 59 51 14 54 20 29 36 -54 -16 50 43 -19 11 14 -16 32 20 -19 31 2 1.58
132 0 0 -17 53 27 14 54 29 29 37 -54 -16 44 27 -19 4 42 -16 26 6 -19 24 27 1.58
131 0 0 -17 48 10 14 54 37 28 38 -54 -16 39 17 -18 59 18 -16 20 58 -19 19 1 1.58
130 0 0 -17 44 1 14 54 46 28 38 -54 -16 35 13 -18 55 4 -16 16 54 -19 14 46 1.58
129 0 0 -17 41 0 14 54 54 27 39 -54 -16 32 14 -18 52 0 -16 13 56 -19 11 40 1.58
128 0 0 -17 39 6 14 55 2 27 40 -54 -16 30 21 -18 50 4 -16 12 4 -19 9 44 1.58
127 0 0 -17 38 19 14 55 11 26 40 -54 -16 29 34 -18 49 18 -16 11 16 -19 8 58 1.59
126 0 0 -17 38 39 14 55 18 25 41 -53 -16 29 52 -18 49 41 -16 11 34 -19 9 22 1.59
125 0 0 -17 40 8 14 55 26 25 41 -53 -16 31 17 -18 51 13 -16 12 58 -19 10 55 1.59
124 0 0 -17 42 44 14 55 34 24 42 -53 -16 33 47 -18 53 55 -16 15 27 -19 13 39 1.59
123 0 0 -17 46 28 14 55 41 23 43 -53 -16 37 25 -18 57 48 -16 19 2 -19 17 34 1.59
122 0 0 -17 51 21 14 55 48 23 43 -52 -16 42 8 -19 2 50 -16 23 44 -19 22 40 1.60
121 0 0 -17 57 23 14 55 55 22 44 -52 -16 47 59 -19 9 4 -16 29 32 -19 28 56 1.60
120 0 0 -18 4 34 14 56 2 21 44 -52 -16 54 58 -19 16 29 -16 36 27 -19 36 25 1.60
119 0 0 -18 12 54 14 56 9 21 45 -51 -17 3 4 -19 25 5 -16 44 30 -19 45 6 1.60
118 0 0 -18 22 25 14 56 15 20 45 -51 -17 12 18 -19 34 54 -16 53 40 -19 55 0 1.61
117 0 0 -18 33 7 14 56 21 19 46 -50 -17 22 42 -19 45 55 -17 3 59 -20 6 8 1.61
116 0 0 -18 45 0 14 56 27 18 46 -50 -17 34 15 -19 58 11 -17 15 27 -20 18 29 1.61
115 0 0 -18 58 5 14 56 33 17 47 -49 -17 46 58 -20 11 40 -17 28 4 -20 32 6 1.62
114 0 0 -19 12 23 14 56 38 17 47 -48 -18 0 52 -20 26 25 -17 41 52 -20 46 59 1.62
113 0 0 -19 27 54 14 56 44 16 48 -48 -18 15 57 -20 42 27 -17 56 50 -21 3 9 1.62
112 0 0 -19 44 41 14 56 49 15 48 -47 -18 32 14 -20 59 45 -18 13 0 -21 20 36 1.63
111 0 0 -20 2 43 14 56 53 14 48 -46 -18 49 45 -21 18 22 -18 30 23 -21 39 23 1.63
110 0 0 -20 22 1 14 56 58 13 49 -46 -19 8 30 -21 38 18 -18 49 0 -21 59 30 1.64
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 21.0
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