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Updated: 2019 SEP 18, 20:18 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Nov 13 UT, the 75.2626283249339 km diameter asteroid (333) Badenia will occult a 10.1 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a fairly broad path across New Zealand from Tauranga across eastern North Island south of Hamilton to Opunake and just grazing some of the west coast of the South Island.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.32 mag to 14.39 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Path Coordinates:
Occultation of HIP 110296 by 333 Badenia on 2019 Nov 13
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
159 9 1 -48 48 19 11 46 59.5 32 293 -21 158 17 52 -48 29 32 160 1 50 -49 6 59 157 52 17 -48 19 53 160 29 32 -49 16 29 1.54
159 41 25 -48 24 26 11 47 4.4 31 292 -22 158 50 15 -48 5 51 160 34 15 -48 42 55 158 24 40 -47 56 18 161 1 57 -48 52 19 1.54
160 14 1 -48 0 36 11 47 9.3 31 291 -22 159 22 48 -47 42 12 161 6 52 -48 18 53 158 57 12 -47 32 45 161 34 35 -48 28 11 1.54
160 46 48 -47 36 47 11 47 14.3 31 291 -23 159 55 33 -47 18 34 161 39 42 -47 54 52 159 29 55 -47 9 13 162 7 26 -48 4 4 1.54
161 19 48 -47 12 59 11 47 19.2 31 290 -23 160 28 29 -46 54 58 162 12 46 -47 30 52 160 2 50 -46 45 42 162 40 33 -47 39 58 1.54
161 53 3 -46 49 11 11 47 24.2 31 289 -24 161 1 39 -46 31 22 162 46 6 -47 6 53 160 35 57 -46 22 11 163 13 56 -47 15 53 1.55
162 26 33 -46 25 24 11 47 29.1 30 288 -24 161 35 3 -46 7 46 163 19 42 -46 42 54 161 9 18 -45 58 41 163 47 36 -46 51 48 1.55
163 0 19 -46 1 38 11 47 34.1 30 288 -25 162 8 42 -45 44 11 163 53 37 -46 18 56 161 42 54 -45 35 12 164 21 34 -46 27 43 1.55
163 34 24 -45 37 51 11 47 39.0 30 287 -25 162 42 38 -45 20 35 164 27 51 -45 54 57 162 16 45 -45 11 42 164 55 53 -46 3 38 1.55
164 8 47 -45 14 3 11 47 44.0 29 286 -26 163 16 51 -44 56 59 165 2 25 -45 30 57 162 50 54 -44 48 12 165 30 33 -45 39 32 1.55
164 43 32 -44 50 15 11 47 48.9 29 286 -26 163 51 24 -44 33 23 165 37 22 -45 6 57 163 25 21 -44 24 41 166 5 37 -45 15 26 1.55
165 18 38 -44 26 26 11 47 53.9 29 285 -26 164 26 18 -44 9 45 166 12 42 -44 42 56 164 0 8 -44 1 9 166 41 5 -44 51 18 1.55
165 54 8 -44 2 35 11 47 58.8 29 284 -27 165 1 33 -43 46 6 166 48 28 -44 18 52 164 35 17 -43 37 36 167 16 59 -44 27 8 1.55
166 30 3 -43 38 42 11 48 3.7 28 284 -27 165 37 12 -43 22 26 167 24 41 -43 54 47 165 10 48 -43 14 2 167 53 22 -44 2 56 1.55
167 6 26 -43 14 47 11 48 8.7 28 283 -28 166 13 17 -42 58 43 168 1 23 -43 30 39 165 46 44 -42 50 25 168 30 15 -43 38 41 1.55
167 43 18 -42 50 49 11 48 13.6 27 282 -28 166 49 49 -42 34 57 168 38 37 -43 6 28 166 23 6 -42 26 45 169 7 41 -43 14 24 1.56
168 20 41 -42 26 48 11 48 18.6 27 281 -29 167 26 50 -42 11 9 169 16 24 -42 42 14 166 59 57 -42 3 3 169 45 42 -42 50 2 1.56
168 58 38 -42 2 43 11 48 23.5 27 281 -29 168 4 22 -41 47 17 169 54 48 -42 17 56 167 37 17 -41 39 18 170 24 20 -42 25 37 1.56
169 37 11 -41 38 34 11 48 28.5 26 280 -30 168 42 28 -41 23 21 170 33 51 -41 53 33 168 15 11 -41 15 29 171 3 39 -42 1 6 1.56
170 16 23 -41 14 21 11 48 33.4 26 279 -30 169 21 11 -40 59 21 171 13 35 -41 29 5 168 53 39 -40 51 35 171 43 42 -41 36 30 1.56
170 56 17 -40 50 1 11 48 38.4 25 279 -31 170 0 32 -40 35 16 171 54 5 -41 4 30 169 32 44 -40 27 37 172 24 32 -41 11 48 1.56
171 36 56 -40 25 36 11 48 43.3 25 278 -31 170 40 35 -40 11 5 172 35 24 -40 39 50 170 12 31 -40 3 34 173 6 13 -40 46 59 1.56
172 18 24 -40 1 4 11 48 48.2 24 277 -32 171 21 24 -39 46 48 173 17 36 -40 15 1 170 53 0 -39 39 24 173 48 50 -40 22 2 1.56
173 0 45 -39 36 24 11 48 53.2 24 277 -32 172 3 1 -39 22 24 174 0 47 -39 50 4 171 34 17 -39 15 7 174 32 27 -39 56 56 1.57
173 44 4 -39 11 35 11 48 58.1 23 276 -33 172 45 32 -38 57 52 174 45 0 -39 24 58 172 16 26 -38 50 43 175 17 11 -39 31 40 1.57
174 28 27 -38 46 37 11 49 3.1 23 275 -33 173 29 1 -38 33 11 175 30 22 -38 59 41 172 59 29 -38 26 11 176 3 7 -39 6 13 1.57
175 13 58 -38 21 28 11 49 8.0 22 275 -34 174 13 33 -38 8 21 176 17 0 -38 34 12 173 43 33 -38 1 29 176 50 23 -38 40 33 1.57
176 0 45 -37 56 7 11 49 13.0 22 274 -34 174 59 14 -37 43 19 177 5 3 -38 8 30 174 28 44 -37 36 37 177 39 8 -38 14 39 1.57
176 48 56 -37 30 32 11 49 17.9 21 273 -35 175 46 11 -37 18 5 177 54 39 -37 42 32 175 15 7 -37 11 33 178 29 32 -37 48 28 1.57
177 38 41 -37 4 42 11 49 22.9 20 273 -35 176 34 32 -36 52 37 178 45 59 -37 16 17 176 2 49 -36 46 15 179 21 47 -37 21 59 1.58
178 30 9 -36 38 34 11 49 27.8 20 272 -36 177 24 27 -36 26 53 179 39 16 -36 49 42 176 52 1 -36 20 43 -179 43 53 -36 55 9 1.58
179 23 35 -36 12 6 11 49 32.7 19 271 -36 178 16 6 -36 0 52 -179 25 13 -36 22 43 177 42 51 -35 54 54 -178 47 9 -36 27 54 1.58
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2019 Sep 18.0
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