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Updated: 2019 OCT 15, 03:43 UT
Event Rank : 83
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Nov 06 UT, the 76.7317894472842 km diameter asteroid (721) Tabora will occult a 9.7 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across Australia from Port Lincoln along the western coast of South Australia and across Western Australia to Exmouth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.83 mag to 14.47 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Path Coordinates:
Occultation of TYC 1874-00862-1 by 721 Tabora on 2019 Nov 6
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
141 52 19 -45 0 0 16 32 1.7 15 10 -22 143 1 45 140 41 16 144 8 29 139 29 49 1.87
141 19 19 -44 0 0 16 32 11.0 16 10 -23 142 28 20 140 8 40 143 34 39 138 57 37 1.88
140 43 56 -43 0 0 16 32 21.0 16 11 -24 141 52 39 139 33 36 142 58 39 138 22 49 1.88
140 6 12 -42 0 0 16 32 31.6 17 11 -25 141 14 42 138 56 2 142 20 28 137 45 24 1.88
139 26 2 -41 0 0 16 32 42.9 18 12 -26 140 34 27 138 15 57 141 40 6 137 5 20 1.89
138 43 27 -40 0 0 16 32 55.0 19 13 -27 139 51 53 137 33 17 140 57 31 136 22 35 1.89
137 58 21 -39 0 0 16 33 7.8 20 13 -28 139 6 55 136 48 1 140 12 38 135 37 4 1.89
137 10 40 -38 0 0 16 33 21.3 21 14 -29 138 19 29 136 0 1 139 25 25 134 48 41 1.89
136 20 19 -37 0 0 16 33 35.6 22 15 -31 137 29 32 135 9 12 138 35 46 133 57 20 1.89
135 27 10 -36 0 0 16 33 50.7 22 16 -32 136 36 54 134 15 26 137 43 35 133 2 51 1.89
134 31 5 -35 0 0 16 34 6.7 23 17 -33 135 41 30 133 18 32 136 48 46 132 5 3 1.89
133 31 51 -34 0 0 16 34 23.5 24 18 -34 134 43 9 132 18 20 135 51 9 131 3 43 1.88
132 29 18 -33 0 0 16 34 41.3 25 19 -35 133 41 39 131 14 33 134 50 34 129 58 33 1.88
131 23 7 -32 0 0 16 35 0.0 25 20 -37 132 36 46 130 6 53 133 46 49 128 49 13 1.88
130 13 1 -31 0 0 16 35 19.9 26 21 -38 131 28 14 128 54 59 132 39 37 127 35 16 1.88
128 58 35 -30 0 0 16 35 40.8 26 22 -39 130 15 41 127 38 23 131 28 41 126 16 10 1.88
127 39 19 -29 0 0 16 36 3.0 27 23 -41 128 58 41 126 16 27 130 13 38 124 51 11 1.87
126 14 34 -28 0 0 16 36 26.5 27 25 -42 127 36 42 124 48 27 128 54 0 123 19 23 1.87
124 43 31 -27 0 0 16 36 51.5 28 26 -44 126 9 3 123 13 21 127 29 12 121 39 30 1.87
123 5 3 -26 0 0 16 37 18.3 28 28 -45 124 34 50 121 29 46 125 58 29 119 49 41 1.87
121 17 37 -25 0 0 16 37 47.0 28 29 -47 122 52 49 119 35 40 124 20 52 117 47 15 1.87
119 19 2 -24 0 0 16 38 18.2 28 31 -48 121 1 18 117 28 0 122 35 0 115 27 44 1.87
117 5 48 -23 0 0 16 38 52.4 28 33 -50 118 57 49 115 1 41 120 38 58 112 42 59 1.87
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
116 0 0 -22 33 8 16 39 8.9 28 34 -50 -21 44 53 -23 22 49 -20 58 46 -24 13 7 1.87
115 0 0 -22 10 12 16 39 23.8 28 35 -51 -21 22 25 -22 59 22 -20 36 43 -23 49 6 1.87
114 0 0 -21 48 42 16 39 38.5 27 36 -51 -21 1 21 -22 37 24 -20 16 4 -23 26 37 1.87
113 0 0 -21 28 39 16 39 53.0 27 37 -52 -20 41 41 -22 16 54 -19 56 45 -23 5 40 1.87
112 0 0 -21 10 0 16 40 7.3 27 37 -52 -20 23 24 -21 57 52 -19 38 47 -22 46 13 1.87
111 0 0 -20 52 44 16 40 21.4 27 38 -53 -20 6 28 -21 40 15 -19 22 9 -22 28 13 1.87
110 0 0 -20 36 50 16 40 35.2 26 39 -53 -19 50 52 -21 24 2 -19 6 49 -22 11 40 1.87
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2019 Oct 15.0
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